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WSA - Western Areas

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I love it when it gets real.
I am now convinced that people who trade this are on acid.

 
Hi Notting - where are you ??

Last posting on WSA was end of July this year. Was hoping to see many more with Nickel play and this being a rising star.
Any way cutting short to share my observation.
With Philippine saga alongwith few like OGC, this dived down today. For last few days with rising nickel price and impressive annual result, the SP was going north.
However interestingly since 1 September, four sell were executed by the directors for considerable amount.
Opportunity knocks to make money. Of course but how about the sales were done and now today the price gone down by more than 4.7% as I write.
No correlation but just hunch to stay on side line and watch before committing.
Do not hold yet.
 
I had been waiting for my dealer so I coul ask the Cheshire cat what to do next.
He said buy it when it was 2.56. Unfortunately I took the blue pill that made me wait till after the first debate.
 
What's with the 20% decline yesterday?

Australian Super selling down a major holding? Volume about 6 times the previous few days
 
willy1111 said:
What's with the 20% decline yesterday?

Australian Super selling down a major holding? Volume about 6 times the previous few days
Click to expand...

I think it was mostly to do with the Indonesian government easing export ban. That ban caused the nickle price to jump a bit when it was implemented some time ago (sorry I can't remember the exact time but I am sure you can find the answer easy enough).

IGO is another ASX nickel producer of note and took a hit as well.

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...as-indonesia-relaxes-export-ban-ng-b88354633z
 
How low can WSA go on this current ugly dive, will it get to $2 again? is this slump reasonable considering the current LME price, LME stocks, demand and the $AUD.

Sure they have mined the easiest resources and output has plateaued and minerals are on the nose atm with the threat of US tariffs impacting the Chinese economy, but will this last forever?

If there is any significant future growth in nickel usage in EV batteries, which somewhat seems likely, according the their annual report they stand in good stead for this opportunity.

I don't own any, fortunately.....just sayin
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Things are looking rosy for Aussie Nickel producers and WSA seems to be the best of the bunch, quality mines with high grades and 12 or 14 years worth of reserves.
They have a pile of cash and no debt, any increase in the Nickel price is pure profit and the fundamentals around the NCM 811 battery would seem to be very positive.
Lots of price action around the $2 mark, likes to bounce off that level.
~


Reading about the Cosmos mine, Xstrata purchased the mine from Jubilee Mines for A$3.1 billion during a period of high nickel prices in late 2007 then Nickel prices crashed and eventually the mine was closed and Glencore decided to exit the WA nickel business selling the mine to Western Areas for A$24.5 million in 2015. It comes with a 450 Ktpa concentrator, new SAG mill, 500 bed accommodation village, offices, supplies, airstrip etc. A perfectly timed contrarian purchase at the very bottom of the price cycle, the mine will reopen soon.
 
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I bought in a few weeks ago with a speculative holding purchased @$2.05 . Goldman Sachs have a $1.80 price target on this stock and what do you know, the short interest has been climbing this year (as has the price of nickel). Class 2 nickel demand is going to go through the roof over the next couple of decades, and while there will be plenty of supply come into production around the globe I'm speculating on a short term deficit of supply as EV battery production ramps up around the globe.
 
WSA had a good run in the last week or so on news and pulled back a bit on Friday.

I see some resistance at 2.53 but one to watch.

 
Trav. said:
Still some short interest but fighting back after drop
Click to expand...

The wide range high Volume bars last couple of days are often a signal for a pause, but if it manages to break that $2.52 resistance area with gusto, it could be off to the races!
 
barney said:
The wide range high Volume bars last couple of days
Click to expand...

I look at this spread as people exiting due to being trapped when buying on the news (qrtly report) and are trying to get out at break even or a small loss.

I agree it will be interesting to see what happens next week.
 
Nickel price going up, WSA share price going up > fundamentals are now clearly positive, least till China blows up.
 
This is setting itself up beautifully for the annual report this week on a TA basis. If the price holds and the profit and future forecast for q1 are as positive as they should be, then this is set to possibly gap up beyond that $2.50 region, which would make jumping on board after the report difficult (having to have wide stop loss), for traders.

Given the $Aus price of Nickel, there is no fundamental reason why this has been trading as low as it has, but it is a great trading stock with good volume and nice moves.
I'm currently very long on this, but managed to buy at $2 and $2.12. I've bought the bounce a few times in the last year, and held for the break of $2.50, but ended up giving back lots of profit because of wide stops. Maybe this time it will break out, all the technicals seem to be lining up for me, but waiting for the break is not the correct play IMHO, as it could see $3 in the blink of an eye after report release.
 
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