Worst drought ever

[Aussiejeff]

If climate change IS really underway, we should expect summers in southern Oz to become wetter (as we have just experienced this summer) and winters to become drier (as we have experienced the last few winters). Time will tell. A few more years of the same pattern we are now experiencing might confirm the "climate change" scenario is upon us, as opposed to the "normal random weather pattern events" argument.


AJ

 

[The Once-ler]

Yep. agree.

Also, total rainfall, dryer south, wetter north.

Looking something like the last 3 years,

Unfortunately, most of the extra rain is falling in the northern wet season, which just increases an already very wet time, meaning the whole lot is wasted as runoff. The dry season up there will still be dry. Cropping in the northern wet has never been succesful. It only works up there by growing stuff in the dry season and irrigating.
Plus, it's where hardly anyone lives anyway.

The dryer areas in the south, are where 95% of the population lives, and 95% of the agricultural production happens.

Oh dear. Not good.

 

[Smurf1976]

If climate change IS really underway, we should expect summers in southern Oz to become wetter (as we have just experienced this summer) and winters to become drier (as we have experienced the last few winters).

I'm not sure about the other states but in Tas at least it's very much a case of dry summers now, that's the problem. Spring rain is up quite nicely but that increase is man-made (cloud seeding) so not really a valid indicator. Add in the evaporation effects higher summer temperatures and total run-off is down quite badly (and in Tas it is run-off that matters more in practical terms than actual rainfall).

Are you saying that Vic, SA etc are getting wet summers?

 

[Prospector]

Or into Adelaide! We have not had any rain for 6 weeks; the temperatures since last Monday have been between 35 - 39 degrees, and it will be another WEEK of 35 - 39 degrees. The longest heat wave ever recorded in Adelaide.

Make that over 35 for the next 9 days; yesterday was 40, today was 40. 15 days straight of temps over 35 degrees, most of those over 38 degrees. Can you imagine what that is doing to our environment when we are are only allowed to water the gardens for 3 hours a week and no sprinklers and no rain for 8 weeks.

 

[2020hindsight]

worst (autumn) for 75 years prospector - you aint imagining it apparently.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/09/2184301.htm?section=justin

Adelaide bakes in 75-year heatwave
Posted 7 hours 36 minutes ago

It has been 75 years since Adelaide has seen such an extraordinary heat wave in autumn, and the weather bureau says there is no relief in sight.

Adelaide is bracing itself for another week of searing heat in the mid to high thirties Celsius.

If Tuesday's temperature reaches one degree more than the expected top of 34 degrees Celsius it will make nine consecutive days of more than 35C.

Duty forecaster Belinda Gibson says such temperatures have not been recorded in Adelaide since an eight-day heat wave in 1934.

"It isn't unprecedented but it's certainly been a long time since we last saw it," she said.

Ms Gibson says there is no end in sight yet to the extreme weather.

The mercury did not dip below 26C overnight and peaked at 32C at 2:00am ACDT.

Temperatures are expected to reach 40C today.

 

[Smurf1976]

Make that over 35 for the next 9 days; yesterday was 40, today was 40. 15 days straight of temps over 35 degrees, most of those over 38 degrees. Can you imagine what that is doing to our environment when we are are only allowed to water the gardens for 3 hours a week and no sprinklers and no rain for 8 weeks.

I'm not sure what's under the soil in Adelaide but if it's clay then be careful you don't end up with the house cracking up or, in the worst case, literally falling down. Clay shrinks when it dries out and this plays havoc with foundations and costs $$$ to put right.

One thing I'm wondering about is the animals. I live near the bush and the creek has dried up, so now I end up with wallabys etc coming onto the front garden to drink when I put the sprinkler on. Gave me a fright the first time I stumbled across one in the dark but I'm used to the idea now and do the watering at night (turns itself off) to suit them. I don't know how long they can live without water but I'm thinking that in Adelaide etc which is a lot warmer they're probably dying due to thirst? Likewise various other animals?

Pity the humans without air-conditioning too. If it's 40 during the day and 32 in the middle of the night then that would make it rather hard to sleep (or are locals used to it?).

 

[2020hindsight]

Also, total rainfall, dryer south, wetter north.

Looking something like the last 3 years,

.

thanks once-ler
picture worth a thousand words as they say
buga buga buga ... ..... buga!

 

[Prospector]

I'm not sure what's under the soil in Adelaide but if it's clay then be careful you don't end up with the house cracking up or, in the worst case, literally falling down. Clay shrinks when it dries out and this plays havoc with foundations and costs $$$ to put right.

Reactive clay it is, and there are houses cracking everywhere! Even new homes. Ours is not doing any worse than it normally does, but it certainly does have cracks. We just learn in Adelaide to live with them!

One thing I'm wondering about is the animals. I live near the bush and the creek has dried up, so now I end up with wallabys etc coming onto the front garden to drink when I put the sprinkler on.

Sprinklers are BANNED!

Hey Smurf, funny you should say that! Guess what arrived in our garden about 2 hours ago (we are 10 minutes from Adelaide CBD!)

This!

I can touch it it is so close to ground level! And I have rung so many people to try to have it rescued, but the only people licensed to rescue it belong to the Government, it is a long weekend here, and the call goes to a call centre interstate. They told me to call back Tuesday!

In Adelaide at the moment we have the Festival of Arts, the Fringe, Womadelaide (World of Music), Adelaide Cup Race, Glendi (Greek festival) and it is so fricken hot for all of them. Adelaide Cup used to be held in May but a couple of years ago it was moved to March because of the bad weather in May. Ha, stupid horse race!

 

[ormond]

The heatwave just keeps on in Adelaide.
Now 9 days of 35c+ with more to come.
Thu-40c
Fri-39c
Sat-38c
Sun-38c
Mon-39c
Tommorow and Friday shaping as the worst bushfire days this summer with strong northerlys predicted.
Seven weeks of no rain and i've had enough!

 

[Prospector]

I said to my partner (who is enjoying 25degrees in Mexico) that today seemed cooler. Well, I guess 39 is cooler than 40.

So, maybe we should do a poll on who is watering their gardens at the moment?

 

[Julia]

Commiserations, Prospector. You seem to have had the most horrible summer.
In contrast, here in coastal Qld it's been very cool, overcast, showery and with gale force winds most of the summer.
We've just had a gorgeous week in Sydney with sunny, calm days.
Such a beautiful city.
Hope there's some relief on the way for you soon, Prospector.

 

[Smurf1976]

The heatwave just keeps on in Adelaide.
Now 9 days of 35c+ with more to come.
Thu-40c
Fri-39c
Sat-38c
Sun-38c
Mon-39c
Tommorow and Friday shaping as the worst bushfire days this summer with strong northerlys predicted.
Seven weeks of no rain and i've had enough!

Must be hard to sleep at night (even worse for shift workers!) with that heat unless you have a pretty decent air conditioner. I remember being in a hotel there in the middle of summer with windows that got the afternoon sun and it was HOT!

Must say though that the hot breeze outside at 3am was really something. Well, it is if you're not used to the heat anyway.

Not to worry too much though, the heat is spreading a bit. 34 down here tomorrow and we've got a total ban on ALL outdoor water use and fire ban too. The water ban isn't due to a shortage as such, just a precaution to keep the load on the pumps etc as low as possible in case water is needed for fire fighting. One spark and the whole place is ready to practically blow up with it being so dry plus the warm weather and strong winds forecast.

...

Arthurs Lake (Tas), well known for its fishing locally and even internationally, is now being dropped below the point where the fishing goes kaput. Been trying to avoid that for years but it's do or die (well, drain or blackouts) time now and so the pumps are running 24/7 feeding into the 16% full Great Lake (aka the Hydro's "reserve bank"). Not that it will increase the level in Great Lake, it's flowing out through Poatina far more quickly than it can be pumped in, but it will keep the lights on for a while longer with another storage heading to oblivion.

Don't try jumping off Gordon Dam either. Obviously a 140m fall straight down on the downstream side will kill you for sure but the lake is getting so low that you'd be unlikely to survive a plunge into the water either. 14% and falling. Looking on the positive side, if this keeps up then I guess drowning there won't be much of a risk...

 

[Smurf1976]

I said to my partner (who is enjoying 25degrees in Mexico) that today seemed cooler. Well, I guess 39 is cooler than 40.

So, maybe we should do a poll on who is watering their gardens at the moment?

Thought you weren't allowed to water the garden in Adelaide?

 

[trillionaire#1]

Allowed to water once a week in adelaide for 15 minutes (no sprinklers)
but you can water using unlimited amounts in buckets ,ive just spent an hour tipping buckets on everything organic in the yard,getting some serious muscletone going!

 

[Prospector]

Lovely 31 degree minimum last night,
40 today, and a cool change tonight which will drop the temperature to only 38 tomorrow.

No-one is buying chocolate Easter Eggs at the moment. There are so many still in the shops - actually in many places the Eggs cant be stored in the shops but in the (air conditioned) malls outside the shops. Haighs have stopped production (usually they sell out by now, now they cant even sell them) and the temperature is not expected to dip below 30 until the day before Easter. So either people will just not bother this year, or Thursday will be frantic. Good for the waistline anyway - havent had a drink of alcohol or chocolate for over a week! Dont like beer and it is way too hot for wine. Dont drink soft drink so I cant even get into the spirits either!

 

[Smurf1976]

At least you shouldn't have trouble with hot cross buns. They'll cook by themselves without needing the oven. :

SA was using more power in the middle of last night than it does during a weekday afternoon when the weather is mild. So clearly a lot of air-conditioners running so people can sleep.

On a more serious note, fires.

I heard on the news that there are some fires in SA not far from Adelaide. Hope nobody gets hurt, houses burnt etc but with the weather it's going to be hard to fight the fires.

Also there's a bushfire smell throughout Hobart right now. Not sure where the fire is (might even be smoke blown over from SA or Vic?) but it's just hazy and smells of smoke.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well I've just got to post this one. The hottest Australian capital city right now is... Hobart! : (source Bureau of Met)

Hobart 36.5
Adelaide 35.2
Melbourne 34.7

OK, it won't last, but there's a novelty value in being the warmest even if not for long. Also it's making the computer fan do some serious revs. I'd better log off before it blows up...

Edit: Change that. 37.0 now only 0.3 off the March record. I'm going outside just for the sake of it...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well I've just got to post this one. The hottest Australian capital city right now is... Hobart! : (source Bureau of Met)

Hobart 36.5
Adelaide 35.2
Melbourne 34.7

OK, it won't last, but there's a novelty value in being the warmest even if not for long. Also it's making the computer fan do some serious revs. I'd better log off before it blows up...

Edit: Change that. 37.0 now only 0.3 off the March record. I'm going outside just for the sake of it...

Stands to reason.

Yer closer to Hades, being Down Under and all!

LOL

 

[noirua]

Praying for rain: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21680340/

 

[2020hindsight]

A eulogy for Prof Peter Cullen.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2189841.htm
Some Cullenisms :-

'By now we should have learned that praying for rain is no substitute for good planning."

"Disconnecting the fuel gauge might be one way to stop worrying about how much fuel might be left, but it's a pretty stupid strategy."

"Those with large gardens and swimming pools will develop a sudden and laudable concern for the wellbeing of the disadvantaged who might not be able to afford to bathe their five children if prices reflect the real costs."

"There appears to be much misunderstanding about groundwater, and some seem to believe it is a magic pudding of infinite good quality water."

"It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to develop a sustainable and healthy Murray Darling Basin. There is much to be done."

Sadly it was once in a lifetime for him ... question is will we learn anything from the last attempt I guess. With Senator Xenophon (in July), it is sure to be back on the political agenda.

What made Peter Cullen a household name in Australia was not his science – to him that was the easy bit – what made Peter Cullen great was his tireless efforts to work with people from all backgrounds, to carve out a way to get us from where we are to where we need to be.

I will never forget the day he was invited to make a 15-minute presentation to the Prime Minister's Science Engineering Council on the salinity crisis facing the Murray Darling Basin. This august body meets twice a year, is chaired by the Prime Minister, attended by many Cabinet Ministers and discusses matters ranging from biotechnology to cancer research. Salinity is not up there in the sexy subject stakes, but Peter commanded the room.

Peter's greatest legacy is his contribution to placing science front and centre in public debate.

With the power of his ideas and his great wit and humanity, he has led the transformation of water reform in Australia. He has transformed environmental debate from slogans to science to solutions.

He was a great scientist, a great statesman and an even greater man.

Today we feel the loss of a pillar of environmental leadership. Today we remember his humor and warmth, his foresight and wisdom.

Tomorrow we will recognise that his contribution to water reform in Australia has been unparalleled.

This from a paper he gavein NZ last Dec.. (his last paper?)
http://www.wentworthgroup.org/docs/Adapting_to_Water_Scarcity.pdf