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Worst drought ever

If you look at the two graphs, you can see how MDBC firstly significantly depleted Hume Dam from approx. 93% in mid Nov 2005 to approx. 12% at the start of May 2006, while leaving Dartmouth Dam at approx. 65% for the year. Then, when the expected winter rains didn't come they switched to significantly depleting Dartmouth Dam from approx. 65% at the start of August 2006 down to approx. 10% at the start of May 2007. In the same timeframe, due to the lack of inflows, Hume Dam had also dwindled to approx. 7%.
The order of storage depletion, Hume before Dartmouth, makes sense given the storage capacity versus inflow range for the two storages but agreed with the underlying message.

I'd be rather interested in knowing what modelling the MDBC has done for this and how they worked out that it was OK to run flat out with the storages declining to that level. I strongly suspect the answer is they haven't actually worked it out at all beyond a 12 month timeframe.

The longer the projection period the lower the accuracy, but I've seen 5 year projections done reasonably well so it is possible.

IMO the real underlying problem is that water management (and a lot of other things) no longer look beyond a 12 month timeframe. Everything now is about this year and this year's financial results. Same with electricity, same with gas, same with oil industry and lots of other things. It's all about today, not tomorrow.

It wasn't always like this. I know for a fact that a lot of investigation work into dams etc was being done in the 1960's for projects planned to be up and running in the 1990's. Literally looking 30 years ahead, realising that something was needed, and then doing a proper investigation of all the available options in order to determine which was best.

The real reason that sort of thing fell in a hole is political. Dams aren't popular and those opposed to them thrive on it not being urgently needed. Never mind that it will take a decade to build, 3 years to fill and is needed then. That doesn't count. If the need isn't immediate then whoever is proposing it will be subject to all manner of "surplus capacity" claims which, whilst true in the short term, are anything but true in the long term.

Bottom line IMO is the only way we'll fix the water is to actually run completely dry. Just as the only way Joe Public will ever understand the oil situation is when they can't buy petrol. Just as they won't listen to anyone telling them about the need for investment in power generation until the lights have actually gone out. Short term, they always focus on the negative effects of these things rather than looking to tomorrow.
 
Bottom line IMO is the only way we'll fix the water is to actually run completely dry. Just as the only way Joe Public will ever understand the oil situation is when they can't buy petrol. Just as they won't listen to anyone telling them about the need for investment in power generation until the lights have actually gone out. Short term, they always focus on the negative effects of these things rather than looking to tomorrow.

Don't blame joe public. It is gutless polititions who are afraid of the NIMBYs.
 
...IMO the real underlying problem is that water management (and a lot of other things) no longer look beyond a 12 month timeframe. Everything now is about this year and this year's financial results. Same with electricity, same with gas, same with oil industry and lots of other things. It's all about today, not tomorrow.

It wasn't always like this. I know for a fact that a lot of investigation work into dams etc was being done in the 1960's for projects planned to be up and running in the 1990's. Literally looking 30 years ahead, realising that something was needed, and then doing a proper investigation of all the available options in order to determine which was best.

The real reason that sort of thing fell in a hole is political...

Hi Smurf1976.

I entirely agree with you regarding the "shorter terming" of project management over the past 30-40 years, especially with regard to water. I well remember growing up in the 60's with politicians proposing long term management plans for all manner of public infrastructure projects, including the Snowy Hydro and Murray River schemes. The Snowy scheme as you know started in 1949 and was only completed in 1974 - a 25 year project! Imagine something like that getting off the ground now in todays NOW society framework.... :)

You can see the result of where this "short term, good times, forget about the future" social and political attitude has gotten us with the current climate change debate becoming one of increasing panic demanding solutions NOW, when Blind Freddy (who I have seen lurking around the corridors of power and media a lot lately) could tell that planning for all this shemozzle should have started 20 years ago AT LEAST). So now, when our leaders finally talk about long term 20 year or 40 year plans to reduce emissions, not only do they pooh-pooh each other over the timeframes, but the media and society also joins in, saying "thats too far away - must have results NOW"!

I'm afraid "NOW" is a dream that should have been acted upon many years ago....

AJ
 
Don't blame joe public. It is gutless polititions who are afraid of the NIMBYs.
Trouble is, as far as dams are concerned it's not so much NIMBY as BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody) and they do have a large influence at the ballot box. Hence the politicians aren't foolish enough (in terms of their own careers) to take an opposing view.

It was too late to avoid the water situation after the mid-1990's. A time when there was absolute opposition to the contruction of public works in general and particularly dams or other water infrastructure.

Water. One of the few totally renewable resources we use. And the only resource in short supply where consumption is restricted by regulation in this country. A rather absurd situation when you think about it.:2twocents
 
Trouble is, as far as dams are concerned it's not so much NIMBY as BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody) and they do have a large influence at the ballot box. Hence the politicians aren't foolish enough (in terms of their own careers) to take an opposing view.

It was too late to avoid the water situation after the mid-1990's. A time when there was absolute opposition to the contruction of public works in general and particularly dams or other water infrastructure.

Water. One of the few totally renewable resources we use. And the only resource in short supply where consumption is restricted by regulation in this country. A rather absurd situation when you think about it.:2twocents

But then, the authorities appear to be in a position to make a lot of money from this "man-made shortage" situation through escalating licence fees, water allocation charges and no doubt much higher future water taxes, rates, etc, etc. So, when you think about it, politicians may feel this "shortage" situation is really a nett benefit to them financially to encourage them to continue with (ie: relatively lower spending on infrastructure compared to increasingly higher returns from escalating water charges)?

A cunning plan eh?

AJ
 
But then, the authorities appear to be in a position to make a lot of money from this "man-made shortage" situation through escalating licence fees, water allocation charges and no doubt much higher future water taxes, rates, etc, etc. So, when you think about it, politicians may feel this "shortage" situation is really a nett benefit to them financially to encourage them to continue with (ie: relatively lower spending on infrastructure compared to increasingly higher returns from escalating water charges)?

A cunning plan eh?

AJ
And set it up value wise for privatisation and rake in a bundle to put in the futures fund which is for public service and pollie super in the future. Or am I just being cynical?
 
According to this latest Total MDBC Storage graph, we better not have another year like the previous 12 months to date... or total MDBC storage will be heading for low to middling single digit figures.

Last night the grain harvest forecast was downgraded to the lowest in 12 years.... when the final numbers are in it will likely be even worse.




AJ
 

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And set it up value wise for privatisation and rake in a bundle to put in the futures fund which is for public service and pollie super in the future. Or am I just being cynical?
1. Let the system run down through permanent restrictions such that "normal" capacity ends up being inadequate even with average rainfall.

2. A drought occurs requiring harsh restrictions to drop consumption below the already restricted "normal" level.

3. Public gets angry. So do opposition politicians.

4. Big business comes in with a "solution" - privatise it and they promise to invest in upgrading the supply capacity (sometimes they will, sometimes it's just lies).

5. The public's water supply assets in rundown condition are given away at fire sale prices.

Plenty of smaller town examples in the US etc where it's happened and in some Australian states it seems the politicians are setting the privatisation wheels in motion.

Permanent restrictions never make sense. It's simply not wise to rely on an emergency measure on a routine basis. Doing so is like not fixing the car's brakes because the handbrake still works. It's simply asking for disaster when a new problem comes along - and it will sometime.
 
1. Let the system run down through permanent restrictions such that "normal" capacity ends up being inadequate even with average rainfall.

2. A drought occurs requiring harsh restrictions to drop consumption below the already restricted "normal" level.

3. Public gets angry. So do opposition politicians.

4. Big business comes in with a "solution" - privatise it and they promise to invest in upgrading the supply capacity (sometimes they will, sometimes it's just lies).

5. The public's water supply assets in rundown condition are given away at fire sale prices.

Plenty of smaller town examples in the US etc where it's happened and in some Australian states it seems the politicians are setting the privatisation wheels in motion.

Permanent restrictions never make sense. It's simply not wise to rely on an emergency measure on a routine basis. Doing so is like not fixing the car's brakes because the handbrake still works. It's simply asking for disaster when a new problem comes along - and it will sometime.

Sadly prophetic about the public anger, Smurf1976...

Overnight..

"A MAN has been charged with murder after he got into a fight with an elderly man who was watering his lawn in southern Sydney.

A 66-year-old man was watering his front lawn about 5.30pm (AEDT) yesterday at Sylvania when a 36-year-old man approached him. A verbal argument ensued relating to water restrictions, prompting the older man to reportedly wet the younger man with the hose. Police allege the 36-year-old responded by punching and pushing the older man to the ground and then kicking him.

An off-duty police officer intervened and arrested the 36-year-old. The older man was treated by ambulance officers and rushed to St George Hospital in a critical condition but died soon after. The 36-year-old was arrested and later charged with murder. He was refused bail and is due to appear at Sutherland Local Court this morning."


I suspect that if the so-called "drought" continues on and on etc, "Restriction Rage" might become almost as widespread as "Road Rage"...

:(

AJ
 
Sadly prophetic about the public anger, Smurf1976...

Overnight..

"A MAN has been charged with murder after he got into a fight with an elderly man who was watering his lawn in southern Sydney.

A 66-year-old man was watering his front lawn about 5.30pm (AEDT) yesterday at Sylvania when a 36-year-old man approached him. A verbal argument ensued relating to water restrictions, prompting the older man to reportedly wet the younger man with the hose. Police allege the 36-year-old responded by punching and pushing the older man to the ground and then kicking him.

An off-duty police officer intervened and arrested the 36-year-old. The older man was treated by ambulance officers and rushed to St George Hospital in a critical condition but died soon after. The 36-year-old was arrested and later charged with murder. He was refused bail and is due to appear at Sutherland Local Court this morning."


I suspect that if the so-called "drought" continues on and on etc, "Restriction Rage" might become almost as widespread as "Road Rage"...AJ

Also stated was the fact that the hosing was being done within the allowable restrictions.
Two years ago a neighbour of mine reported me to the "water police" when I had been watering my garden (within the rules allowed). Luckily for me he didn't get aggressive when I told him to get a life. Think he is jealous of my garden and too lazy to stand around holding a hose for an hour himself.
 
Also stated was the fact that the hosing was being done within the allowable restrictions.
Two years ago a neighbour of mine reported me to the "water police" when I had been watering my garden (within the rules allowed). Luckily for me he didn't get aggressive when I told him to get a life. Think he is jealous of my garden and too lazy to stand around holding a hose for an hour himself.

That Sydney instance was just shocking. Poor old fella just watering quite within the rules and next thing he's dead. Unbelievable.

After I installed rainwater tanks, I put a notice at the front of the property saying "Tank or Recycled Water is used on this Property", just to avoid any possible aggro. My neighbours are great but there are some ding a lings walking around, as the unfortunate gardener in Sydney discovered.
Hope the perpetrator gets something well and truly more than a token sentence.
 
Is the worst drought ever over?

HALLELUJAH!

57mm of rain in Albury-Wodonga over the last three days!

80mm+ falls in the mountain ranges and valleys feeding into Dartmouth & Hume!

:) :) :)

One can only hope this tropical airflow to the south continues for a few more weeks yet..

Cheers,

AJ
 
Well, the heavens might have opened up briefly, but the skull-duggery continues to be played out between the "big players" of the water-for-money industry...

This news item appeared today in the Herald Sun courtesy of Reuters:

"Victoria water 'secretly traded' for NSW rice

WATER meant to protect Victoria's electricity supplies has been traded off to NSW rice growers in secret multimillion-dollar deals with the Snowy Hydro corporation.

Snowy Hydro Ltd and the NSW Department of Water and Energy have been accused of jeopardising the future of electricity outputs, the livelihoods of other irrigators and environmental flows to the Snowy and Murray rivers for short-term profits, Fairfax newspapers reported.

The revelation of the secret sales comes as a cross-state deal on the Snowy River made by two former premiers threatens to tear apart the already frayed relations between the states' current premiers. Former Snowy Mountains engineers and managers say the corporation abandoned established drought strategies, maintaining minimum annual water releases without emptying storages in lakes Eucumbene and Jindabyne.

The engineers estimate Snowy Hydro benefited - by about $160 million - from the special irrigation-deal payments and by bringing forward release revenues. “Had such releases not been made, the total active storage in Lake Eucumbene and Jindabyne Dam would now be more than 800 gigalitres, instead of virtually zero,” retired Snowy Mountains Authority (SMA) engineer John Kelly said. “If the current drought drags on, the water in storage could continue to be seriously overdrawn, with the result that future irrigation releases and electricity outputs will be well below the amounts that would have been produced had the water deals not been done.”

Snowy Hydro Ltd spokesman Paul Johnson said the corporation would study Mr Kelly's report before responding. A former executive with SMA and Snowy Hydro Ltd, Max Talbot, has targeted the big irrigators, saying: “Now they have had their crops and made their profits, but they have not had any option to start paying back the water because the inflows have not been there.” The engineers have joined Gippsland activists angered by the NSW government's attempt last week to cancel the return of environmental flows to the Snowy River, citing Lake Eucumbene's critically low water level.

“It's time the Snowy Hydro stopped treating the storages as its own private, bottomless swimming pool,” Louise Crisp, of the Gippsland Environment Group, said. “By their actions they have put at risk future releases to irrigators, their own electricity generation capacity and environmental flows to the Snowy and Murray, whilst all the while blaming the empty dams solely on the drought.”"


All we need now is for "authorities" to issue licences for the "free" air we breath......

Sigh...


AJ
 
Is the worst drought ever over?

HALLELUJAH!

57mm of rain in Albury-Wodonga over the last three days!

80mm+ falls in the mountain ranges and valleys feeding into Dartmouth & Hume!

:) :) :)

One can only hope this tropical airflow to the south continues for a few more weeks yet..

Cheers,

AJ


Casterton recorded over 2 inches yesterday!!

It's beeing raining here in Ballarat for the last 24 hours.

Fantastic news considering city water levels are at 11 percent.
 
As I've posted a few pages ago in this thread, what Snowy Hydro have been doing is outright madness from an engineering perspective. It might make a profit but it's putting the security of electricity and water supplies in danger when it need not be that way.

Snowy Hydro is primarily an intermediate and peaking generator. They thus have massive flexibility to cut output at intermediate (shoulder) demand periods with thermal generation making up the shortfall. But at peak times the Snowy must run hard or the lights will go out.

So it would be pure commonsense when storages are low to conserve the remaining water for use during peak demand times, right? Not according to what Snowy Hydro have been up to.

End result is we're at the start of the dry season with Lake Eucumbene just under 10% full. Better hope we don't get a hot, dry summer...
 
How about sending some of that rain in Victoria a bit further south?

An irrigation dam in Tas was switched off yesterday after storage hit 0%. This is a privately owned irrigation dam in the Midlands and is the same one that nearly collapsed two years ago forcing the evacuation of towns downstream.

Anyway, Hydro got involved but somehow messed up the inflow readings. But, and if this doesn't highlight the seriousness of the drought then nothing will, the stuff up was 2% versus 7%. Hydro concluded that inflows were running at 7% of average and on that basis the farmers cut their water allocation to 7% of normal.

But it seems Hydro's automated equipment didn't work properly measuring the inflows which were closer to 2% of normal. Farmers presumably didn't check the level and relied on the automated measurements and now the dam's run dry.

2% versus 7%. Wouldn't matter too much if that was 90% versus 95% but when we're down to such low numbers anyway that says it all about the seriousness of the drought. And of course this is right at the start of the dry season so not much chance of those crops growing.

The key thing that seems to be happening is a few places get flooded whilst everywhere else stays dry. Floods in SE Tas a few months ago whilst 100km away it's parched. Floods in parts of Victoria whilst other parts of the state stay dry. Much the same across most of the country - it's raining but it comes all at once and all in the one place thus not ending the drought for most.
 
How about sending some of that rain in Victoria a bit further south?

An irrigation dam in Tas was switched off yesterday after storage hit 0%. This is a privately owned irrigation dam in the Midlands and is the same one that nearly collapsed two years ago forcing the evacuation of towns downstream.

Geeez, hard to imagine Tassie in drought. I imagined it always rained down there.

Had 90 ml near Bundaberg in last couple of days. Filled the tanks and soaked the ground again, but not a lot of runoff.
 
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