Worst drought ever

[prawn_86]

Just wait until we've got a real problem to deal with. Anyone willing to bet that NSW, Vic, Tas, SA and parts of Qld don't have major fires this Summer? You don't need to venture far into the bush to realise how dry it is - and it's only September.

i just went home for the uni holidays and already it looks like it is the middle of summer after a week of 45 degree temperatures. Considering 'winter' just finished most things would have been lush and green five years ago.

 

[Happy]

Biggest problem is that gum trees are such successful grower, which out-competes many other plants.
Year round oil filled leaves are dropped, so it looks that we get fires that we have to have.

I heard that California declared our gum trees a weed and they try to eradicate them.

Should we do the same thing?
(We do all other things in lock step, so would be logical here too)

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Yep, victorian blue gums are labelled "useless" trees over there, they were originally taken over to be grown as mine timbers during the gold rush. Lucky they sent inferioir wood or everyone would want more. Keep the gum trees, let the trees burn, that's how they regenerate, it's only us pesky humans that aren't used to it. We need to push the boundaries for traditional industry. Lets make tassie the new wheat capital.

 

[Smurf1976]

A serious question here. What are we all going to do if this drought is still going this time next year?

By that time the Murray storages will be completely empty. What happens to the farmers who are completely ruined financially? What happens to all those towns and other businesses that depend on farmers?

Agriculture will be all but ruined in SE Australia. What happens to the poor who can not afford more expensive food?

The Snowy will be dry and modest power shortages are then inevitable, especially in NSW but also Vic and SA depending on other factors whilst prices could increase sharply especially in Tasmania. What happens to the elderly and others whose lives are at risk from blackouts or who can no longer afford to stay warm in Winter?

Brisbane and Adelaide will be in serious trouble with urban water supply to the point of it being an outright crisis threatening essential usage. What are we going to do to ensure enough water for basic hygene to avoid the spread of disease?

And what about fires? Should we not be buying more equipment and training more firefighters now rather than waiting until we're surrounded by smoke and flames before throwing money around?

Overall, I think there's a real need to plan now for the worst since that's where we seem to be heading. We can't force the drought to end but I do think it's time to think about a fair system of allocating the available food, water and power and providing financial assistance in some cases to ensure that everyone gets through until whenever it does rain.

 

[Aussiejeff]

A serious question here. What are we all going to do if this drought is still going this time next year?

By that time the Murray storages will be completely empty. What happens to the farmers who are completely ruined financially? What happens to all those towns and other businesses that depend on farmers?

Agriculture will be all but ruined in SE Australia. What happens to the poor who can not afford more expensive food?

The Snowy will be dry and modest power shortages are then inevitable, especially in NSW but also Vic and SA depending on other factors whilst prices could increase sharply especially in Tasmania. What happens to the elderly and others whose lives are at risk from blackouts or who can no longer afford to stay warm in Winter?

Brisbane and Adelaide will be in serious trouble with urban water supply to the point of it being an outright crisis threatening essential usage. What are we going to do to ensure enough water for basic hygene to avoid the spread of disease?

And what about fires? Should we not be buying more equipment and training more firefighters now rather than waiting until we're surrounded by smoke and flames before throwing money around?

Overall, I think there's a real need to plan now for the worst since that's where we seem to be heading. We can't force the drought to end but I do think it's time to think about a fair system of allocating the available food, water and power and providing financial assistance in some cases to ensure that everyone gets through until whenever it does rain.

Hi Smurf1976..

Serious questions indeed... but here's a blindingly obvious one the authorities seem loath to even consider. Just a day or so ago, the Murray Darling Basin Commission's CEO Wendy CraiK stated that "We have not even considered a contingency plan for what might happen if our dams run dry".

WHAT THE?????

These flamin' eejits HAVEN'T EVEN CONSIDERED THAT POSSIBILITY, OR SPENT THE TIME ORGANISING FOR THAT EVENT BECAUSE IT MIGHT SHOW THEM UP AS HAVING BEEN TOTALLY INCOMPETENT WATER MANAGERS TO GET TO THAT POINT?

LMAO... what a bunch of tossers. As the daft old Jock from Dad's Army would say: "We're all DOOOMED, I tell ye... DOOOOMED!"

Well, if these Water Muppets are going to have a bury-their-collective-heads/asses-in-the-burning-sands-attitude and not even consider the worst case scenario, the old Jock's words might be more prophetic than WE wish to know.

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

Monday 1 October, 2007

Allocation Updates Announced

Goulburn-Murray Water today increased seasonal allocations in the Goulburn and Murray systems, and eased delivery restrictions in the Broken and Loddon systems. Customers in the Campaspe system received a small allocation. The Bullarook Creek system remains at zero allocation.

The Goulburn system allocation was increased by 3% to 23% and the gravity irrigation season extended to 30 April 2008. The allocation in the Murray system is 16% of high-reliability water shares, an increase of 6%.

Can you believe it? The CSIRO and others are forecasting permanent drier conditions and these WALLYS are INCREASING allocations of irrigation water with significantly REDUCING inflows.

What the hell are these "experts" thinking? The head of Goulburn-Murray *hopes* that rain will fall. How perceptive of him..... he deserves a pay rise for that.


AJ

 

[nioka]

Hi Smurf1976..

Serious questions indeed... but here's a blindingly obvious one the authorities seem loath to even consider. Just a day or so ago, the Murray Darling Basin Commission's CEO Wendy CraiK stated that "We have not even considered a contingency plan for what might happen if our dams run dry".

WHAT THE?????

These flamin' eejits HAVEN'T EVEN CONSIDERED THAT POSSIBILITY, OR SPENT THE TIME ORGANISING FOR THAT EVENT BECAUSE IT MIGHT SHOW THEM UP AS HAVING BEEN TOTALLY INCOMPETENT WATER MANAGERS TO GET TO THAT POINT?

LMAO... what a bunch of tossers. As the daft old Jock from Dad's Army would say: "We're all DOOOMED, I tell ye... DOOOOMED!"

Well, if these Water Muppets are going to have a bury-their-collective-heads/asses-in-the-burning-sands-attitude and not even consider the worst case scenario, the old Jock's words might be more prophetic than WE wish to know.

AJ

Look at it this way: If the dams run dry we are at exactly the same position as the "no dams" brigade would have had us if they had their way. BUILD MORE DAMS.

 

[2020hindsight]

six months ago, you couldn't get the coaltion to say the words "global warming"

Now CSIRO predicts as follows - massive increase in droughts in our children's lifetimes (gee I'm surprised there are any scientists left in CSIRO after the Libs decimated them in the mid 1990's )
and btw the temperature increase in our grandchildren's lifetimes is just a nightmare scenario

The report says eastern Australia will face 40 per cent more drought months by 2070, while south-western Australia will face 80 per cent more drought months

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/02/2048706.htm?section=justin

Warming 'inevitable' in Australia
Posted 1 hour 15 minutes ago
Updated 40 minutes ago

A new report says Australia is heading for a hotter, drier future. (File photo) (ABC)
Video: Climate change outlook grim: report (ABC News)
Audio: Scientists expect bad climate news (AM)

Australia could be 5 degrees Celsius hotter and 40 to 80 per cent drier by 2070, according to the latest CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology projection for climate change.

The findings, released at the Greenhouse 2007 Conference in Sydney, indicate it is too late to avoid even hotter and drier conditions.

The joint assessment, Climate Change in Australia, forecasts temperatures will rise by 1 degree by 2030, based on 1990 averages.

The report says cities like Adelaide, Perth and Darwin will see a significant increase in the number of days per year above 35 degrees.

Later this century, warming of between 1 and 2.5 degrees is expected if greenhouse gas emissions are kept low.

But a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario could bring warming of as much as 5 degrees by 2070.

The study also foresees more frequent days of extreme high temperatures and reduced rainfall across the country due to higher greenhouse gas levels.

The report says eastern Australia will face 40 per cent more drought months by 2070, while south-western Australia will face 80 per cent more drought months.

The assessment has found average temperatures in Australia have increased, the surrounding oceans have warmed and sea levels have risen since 1950.

The weather bureau's Scott Power, who co-wrote the report, says there is no question of the impact human activity has had on extreme weather.

"We're more confident than ever before that these changes can be largely attributable to human intervention in the climate system," he said.

"We have seen some extraordinary events in Australia's climate in recent decades, but some of these events seem less extraordinary once we take climate change into account."

 

[Aussiejeff]

In the short term, it appears that water system management INFLEXIBILITY is what is really going to hurt us. It appears that most water management authorities are "tied to the wheel" as it were - and seem incapable of adapting reasonably quickly to weather events that sit outside their predicted "norms". They appear to make future contracts and allocations for water they DON'T EVEN KNOW WILL BE THERE - it's only PREDICTED by them to be available based on PAST weather history. When it doesn't arrive they throw their hands in the air and sputter "We couldn't foresee this happening!" Total bollocks. Any good scout knows the saying BE PREPARED!

"But it (water availability) has always been there in the past" they argue, wringing their hands.... well, enough is enough - maybe it IS time some EXPERT over-riding Federal Authority was created to galvanise water management in this country. Mind you, everything regarding water has been allowed to deteriorate into such a convoluted mess that resolving most of the issues (rights/infrastructure etc) in the short term might just be too hard? For example it's all very well for State Authorities saying "Oh, we will have sea water desal up and running in 5 years.." but what the hell are we going to do for water in the meantime? Well, all indications are that in the meantime, the state's populations will keep blowing out and the rainfall and inflows are likely to keep falling - THAT'S what might happen!

For heavens (and our towns) sakes, authorities have to bite the bullet and actually say (rather than just threaten to say) "We apologise to our farmers and irrigators for misleading them about this years allocations - unfortunately no more water is going to be let out of these dams for cropping and irrigation unless decent rainfalls and inflows occur". Then deal with the expensive water allocations class actions in court as they arise. It will come to this anyway. So they may as well start the process NOW while there is still a little bit of dam water left up their collective sleeves.

Sigh...

AJ

 

[Happy]

I saw report that the Moon dust could be spread in upper atmosphere in a band to block about 1 hour’s sunshine per day.

It was also mentioned that extra sun will be reflected toward the Earth with this band, but balance sunshine will be down.

Of course hard to get it right, since it was never done on purpose, but if I remember it right one ice age had something to do with ash spewed into the atmosphere, so it is doable.

 

[Kimosabi]

Well this is a little bit embarrassing, it turns out Antarctica is getting cooler since 1957 and the Sea Ice has reached it's highest levels since they started keeping records.

So much for global warming, I think we should be worried about the Sea Ice spreading to Southern Australia...

Globe cooling in places

Alex Gordon, materials Engineering IV Tuesday
18 September 2007

While much has been made in the media about the extent of the summer melting in the Arctic, very little has been made of the record amount of sea ice forming in the Antarctic this year. Indeed, this is probably the first you’ve heard of this.

Very quietly, the ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctica) has reached its highest level since records began in 1979. According to NASA GISS data, the Antarctic has cooled by 1F since 1957. This highlights an interesting dichotomy in the way global warming-related topics are reported by the media, and presented by the “consensus.”

Take for example, the Larsen Ice Sheet breakup in 2002, and the winter of 2004. The Larsen Ice sheet breaking up in 2002 received a lot of media attention (hint: it was in An Inconvenient Truth). What wasn’t reported is that the breakup wasn’t caused by global warming—it was caused by a spike in solar activity.

Indeed, two years after the solar peak subsided, the winter of 2004 was the coldest in the entire 50-year record of South Pole temperatures. That’s right, coldest.

And since 2002, the Larsen Ice sheet has refrozen and even grown. This past year has seen cold and snow records set in Australia, South America, and Africa—facts that received very little play in the news.

Now, before I get a bunch of angry replies calling me a global warming denier, let me say that I do believe in climate change. The planet’s climate is a system of immensity and complexity beyond our easy understanding, but to suppose that it’s static is to ignore all evidence.

What I do question, however, is how the proponents of man-made global warming (and the skeptics to a lesser extent) selectively pick only certain evidence, ignore whole swathes of conflicting data, crush dissent, claim consensus, and don’t even enter into a real debate. If the science is clear, try and explain away the Antarctic data.

http://www.thegatewayonline.ca/globe-cooling-in-places-20070918-861.html

I'm sorry, but after taking into consideration Global Warming throughout the Solar System and articles like the one above, Global Warming has nothing to do with Global Warming and everything to do with Taxing an essential gas for all life on our Planet by the same people who have suppressed all of the alternative energy sources and have done the most to destroy our planet anyway....

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well this is a little bit embarrassing, it turns out Antarctica is getting cooler since 1957 and the Sea Ice has reached it's highest levels since they started keeping records.

So much for global warming, I think we should be worried about the Sea Ice spreading to Southern Australia...

Globe cooling in places

Alex Gordon, materials Engineering IV Tuesday
18 September 2007

While much has been made in the media about the extent of the summer melting in the Arctic, very little has been made of the record amount of sea ice forming in the Antarctic this year. Indeed, this is probably the first you’ve heard of this.

Very quietly, the ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctica) has reached its highest level since records began in 1979. According to NASA GISS data, the Antarctic has cooled by 1F since 1957. This highlights an interesting dichotomy in the way global warming-related topics are reported by the media, and presented by the “consensus.”

Take for example, the Larsen Ice Sheet breakup in 2002, and the winter of 2004. The Larsen Ice sheet breaking up in 2002 received a lot of media attention (hint: it was in An Inconvenient Truth). What wasn’t reported is that the breakup wasn’t caused by global warming—**IT WAS CAUSED BY A SPIKE IN SOLAR ACTIVITY**.

Indeed, two years after the solar peak subsided, the winter of 2004 was the coldest in the entire 50-year record of South Pole temperatures. That’s right, coldest.

And since 2002, the Larsen Ice sheet has refrozen and even grown. This past year has seen cold and snow records set in Australia, South America, and Africa—facts that received very little play in the news.

Now, before I get a bunch of angry replies calling me a global warming denier, let me say that I do believe in climate change. The planet’s climate is a system of immensity and complexity beyond our easy understanding, but to suppose that it’s static is to ignore all evidence.

What I do question, however, is how the proponents of man-made global warming (and the skeptics to a lesser extent) selectively pick only certain evidence, ignore whole swathes of conflicting data, crush dissent, claim consensus, and don’t even enter into a real debate. If the science is clear, try and explain away the Antarctic data.

http://www.thegatewayonline.ca/globe...70918-861.html

I'm sorry, but after taking into consideration Global Warming throughout the Solar System and articles like the one above, Global Warming has nothing to do with Global Warming and everything to do with Taxing an essential gas for all life on our Planet by the same people who have suppressed all of the alternative energy sources and have done the most to destroy our planet anyway....

**Hi Kimosabi...I took the liberty of highlighting the above section in your quote because perhaps it's worth noting that we are just starting to come out of a SOLAR MINIMUM activity cycle (the solar activity cycle is 11 years peak to peak). Yet during this MINIMUM activity period, our average temp across Australia for Jan-Sep has been the highest recorded according to CSIRO - and Arctic regional ice melting is apparently on the largest scale ever recorded. We see and hear many reports on how glaciers in the northern hemisphere are vanishing rapidly and the northern pack ice has been recently disappearing at an alarming rate. If this is happening during a period of VERY LOW solar activity, one can only wonder how the world climate will be travelling in 2011-2012, when we will once again be experiencing the full effect of a SOLAR MAXIMUM.

I do tend to agree with you that having suppressed the world's alternative energy technologies for so long, world governments will now tax the hell out of whatever gas suits their purposes!

AJ

 

[Happy]

Kimosabi

And since 2002, the Larsen Ice sheet has refrozen and even grown. This past year has seen cold and snow records set in Australia, South America, and Africa—facts that received very little play in the news.

It was reported somewhere, that northern and southern hemisphere’s air circulation is restricted to that hemisphere.

Since most of the industrial activity is in northern hemisphere and majority of population lives there, with their cars, houses and all the other heat outpouring processes, it is possible that that activity takes part in warming.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well, here is the latest *GRIM* MDBC report...

At last, towards the end of the report there is a comment about the slim possibility that the "unforeseen" worst drought on record *might* actually continue into 2008-2009 (see the forecast warning in the last paragraph) and that the authorities will have to look at the contingencies in case of that critical event. HOORAY!

Note that the maintenance of Adelaide's water supply and quality still appears to be the primary concern within the report.

Cheers?

AJ

 

[happytrader]

A business unit of Townsville City Council
Water Restrictions
Current status is: Level 2 water restrictions


Townsville has five levels of water restrictions
Odds and evens water restrictions apply at all five levels.

Level 1 - When Ross River Dam is more than 20%.

Sprinkers permitted any time of day.

Handheld watering permitted anytime.


Level 2 - When Ross River Dam is below 20%.

Ban on sprinklers between 9am to 4pm on all days.

Handheld watering permitted anytime.

Target consumption is 140 ML/d.


Level 3 - When Ross River Dam is 10%.

Ban on sprinklers between 9am to 4pm on all days,
plus increased policing of water restrictions.

Handheld watering permitted anytime.

Target consumption is 120 ML/d.


Level 4 - When Ross River Dam is 5%.

Sprinklers may only be used between 6.30am-7.30am and 6.30pm-7.30pm.

Handheld watering permitted anytime.

Target consumption is 120 ML/d.


Level 5 - When Ross River Dam is at 3.5%.

Sprinkers not permitted.

Hand held watering permitted between 6.30am-7.30am and 6.30pm-7.30pm.

Target consumption is 100 ML/d.
ML/d = megalitres (1,000,000 litres) per day

We offer Water Saving Tips and the Watersmart pages for more tips on saving water.

Even though we are only on level 2 watering restrictions at the moment and they are quite lenient, I notice there is a growing awareness of the need to conserve water and its basically because we can.

I now have friends inviting me over to check out their latest acquisitions - the water tank. I'm not sure whether I'll go that far yet. I'm only at the recycling the greywater stage so far.

Cheers
Happytrader

 

[ghotib]

Well this is a little bit embarrassing, it turns out Antarctica is getting cooler since 1957 and the Sea Ice has reached it's highest levels since they started keeping records.

So much for global warming, I think we should be worried about the Sea Ice spreading to Southern Australia...



I'm sorry, but after taking into consideration Global Warming throughout the Solar System and articles like the one above, Global Warming has nothing to do with Global Warming and everything to do with Taxing an essential gas for all life on our Planet by the same people who have suppressed all of the alternative energy sources and have done the most to destroy our planet anyway....

I'm sorry too Kimosabi, because the evidence is overwhelming that global warming has everything to do with global warming and we'll be lucky if taxes are the worst of our worries.

According to an IPCC report as at February this year, Antarctic ice is still within normal variability. That's fortunate; it's the only ice system that is. It's also by a long way the largest, so you'd expect it to be the last to change. Waiting for the Antarctic ice sheet to start showing abnormal melting is about as sensible as waiting for the Commonwealth Bank to go bust before re-pricing risk.

Cheers,

Ghoti

 

[Aussiejeff]

Funny how in the last two weeks since the last post in this thread, Goulburn Valley Water has gone ahead and ruffled a lot of feathers in country Victoria by lowering water restrictions to Stage 1 (see partial extract of announcemount below) while many other major centres are on Level 3a or 4!

-----------------------------------

Water Restrictions Eased to Stage 1

15 October 2007

Goulburn Valley Water has announced that water restrictions for towns supplied from the Goulburn System, including Alexandra, Avenel, Colbinabbin, Congupna, Corop, Dookie, Eildon, Girgarre, Goulburn Weir (Baxter’s Rd), Katandra West, Kirwan’s Bridge, Kyabram, Mangalore, Merrigum, Molesworth, Mooroopna, Murchison, Nagambie, Rushworth, Seymour, Shepparton, Stanhope, Tallarook, Tallygaroopna, Tatura, Tongala & Toolamba will be eased from Stage 2 to Stage 1 effective Saturday 20 October 2007.

Goulburn Valley Water’s Managing Director, Mr Laurie Gleeson said that the Corporation has made this decision primarily for two reasons.

“Firstly, inflows into Lake Eildon during winter this year have been significantly higher than in 2006. Our allocation is therefore much better now than anticipated in April 2007 when severe water restrictions were introduced,’ he said. “Secondly, the Corporation decided last season to conserve and carryover around 4,500 megalitres for use by our customers this year.”

“The combination of an improved seasonal allocation and the decision to carryover water from last year means that our 2007/2008 water allocation is sufficient to supply water to our customers in the towns on the Goulburn System on Stage 1 water restrictions and still provide some carryover for next year.”

---------------------------

Like all the other water authorities around the place, Goulburn Valley Water seem predominantly preoccupied with "managing" (or fiddling in my opinion) with that amount of water which might have collected in storage sufficient to last "until next year" or even possibly part of the following year. I am continually at a loss to understand how in this parched land our "authorities" can see fit to release with gay abandon what appears to me to be a very precious currency - WATER - based on little more than the hoped for level of storage for the next year!

IMO any authorities restrictions countrywide should stay in place UNTIL AT LEAST 3 YEARS OF FORWARD GUARANTEED WATER CAPACITY has been collected in a storage system. At the moment though, they seem to have a head-buried-in-the-sand mentality and seem "pleased" to announce such comforting platitudes as "there is enough water in storage to last into next year so we will release water for downstream irrigators who are demanding their rights and to towns that are willing to pay more for this stored water"...

How they can be *happy* to "manage" some of these catchments (eg: be somewhat profligate in release of precious water) on what has really become a year by year critical situation in many areas of the country beggars belief.

The latest report by the Murray Darling Basin Commission released 17th Oct supports this view:

----------------------------------

Rainfall and Inflows

During the past week, up to 50 mm of rain fell across the Darling Downs in south-east Queensland. However, the response in river flows has been small. In contrast, most areas in the southern half of the Basin received less than 5 mm of rain. During the past 2 ½ months the southern Basin has suffered a severe dry spell. Yarrawonga, for instance, has received only 11 mm of rain during this period compared with a long term average of about 120 mm. As a result of the continuing dry conditions, inflow to the River Murray System during the past week was only 36 GL, compared with the long term weekly average for October of 365 GL.

River Operations

During the week, Dartmouth storage volume increased by 5 GL, and is now at 18 % capacity
(690 GL). The release from Dartmouth remains at 200 ML/day but is planned to be increased in late October to transfer water to Hume Reservoir. Storage volume at Hume Reservoir peaked this week at 29 % capacity (875 GL) and has now commenced to gradually fall. The release from Hume Reservoir has been increased to provide a flow at Doctors Point (Albury) of 4 800 ML/day and, if the dry weather continues, is expected to continue increasing over the coming weeks. Total storage for the River Murray System declined by 21 GL, and is now at 2 110 GL (or 23 % capacity). The level of Lake Mulwala is steady at 124.2 m AHD (70 cm below Full Supply Level) and unless there is a significant change in the weather, is expected to remain at or slightly above this level during the coming months.

As a result of the increasing demand downstream particularly in the Sunraysia district, the release from Yarrawonga Weir has been increased to 4 300 ML/day and is expected to continue increasing over the next few weeks. Similarly, the release from Torrumbarry Weir has been increased to 3 000 ML/day and should continue to gradually increase over coming weeks.

The partial drawdown of Euston Weir is proceeding as planned and the pool level is currently 34 cm below FSL. Lowering of the pool will continue at about 3-5 cm/week until it reaches the target of 50 cm below FSL by early November. The flow downstream of Wentworth Weir has reduced to 1 000 ML/day and is expected to remain low until extra water arrives from Lake Mulwala in early November. Water from Lock 8 is being released to supplement flow downstream, and subsequently the upper pool level has fallen to 26 cm below FSL. Further information about the operation of Lock 8 is included in the attached media release. The flow to South Australia increased in early October and has helped control salinity levels between Locks 2 to 6. The salinity at Morgan has dropped slightly from 780 EC on 1st October to 733 EC on 17th October. The salinity at Lock 1, however, has continued to gradually increase.

The water level in the Lower Lakes (currently at 0.15 m AHD) has been steadily falling since mid August due to a combination of low rainfall, low inflow and increasing evaporative losses. The level is expected to continue falling over the next few months unless there is significant local rainfall.

---------------------------------------

So, these authorities continue to release stored water on a "wing and a prayer" as they move into what they have already declared to be "uncharted territory" as far as forward looking rainfall projections go.

Should this rather reckless attitude change to a more conservative "we will minimise releases and continue with high level restrictions UNTIL we have a guaranteed three years minimum average supply worth of storage"?

AJ

 

[Smurf1976]

IMO any authorities restrictions countrywide should stay in place UNTIL AT LEAST 3 YEARS OF FORWARD GUARANTEED WATER CAPACITY has been collected in a storage system.

3 years worth in storage wouldn't be practical without a major new dam building program - lots of new dams not just one or two. We just don't have the storage capacity in most cases to efficiently operate with that level of water in storage.

There's a proper way to work out what restrictions should apply though. Using runoff and rainfall records plus proper synthetic data generation techniques it is quite possible to operate a water system in a sensible, scientific manner with no need for "management" or "politics".

What you want as an outcome is a situation where the storage never spills and never runs dry. Using proper calculation methods (ie Hydstra software or something similar) it is quite possible to work out what levels the storages should be at and when.

The proper levels will be different for every storage and depends largely on the storage capacity relative to the range of likely inflows plus seasonal variation in outflow.

If the level starts to track below target then that's when you take some sort of action to operate in a reliable manner. Again, you use the software to work this out too. What it comes down to though is variation in output - water restrictions in the case of irrigation etc or production shifting in the case of an integrated hydro-electric system.

Likewise levels too high can also be dealt with in an efficient manner (assuming there is some use for the water) in order to avoid spill. Spill might sometimes be unavoidable in an irrigation supply system, but it's the ultimate sin where hydro power is concerned (still sometimes unavoidable though). 99% full is not a good situation to be in unless you're damn sure it isn't about to rain.

There's some strange games been played with all of this. Hydstra is Australian developed and is to water management what Microsoft is to computing - absolutely dominant (though Hydstra doesn't crash...). The underlying principles were developed progressively since the 1930's with computers first applied sometime around 1960. Unfortunately the Hydstra business was eventually sold to its only competitor (Kisters) but the Hydstra software is still marketed globally and is now the only real product of that nature.

It's all a bit too scientific for the "smart" water managers in Oz who know everyhing though...

 

[Aussiejeff]

If you look at the two graphs, you can see how MDBC firstly significantly depleted Hume Dam from approx. 93% in mid Nov 2005 to approx. 12% at the start of May 2006, while leaving Dartmouth Dam at approx. 65% for the year. Then, when the expected winter rains didn't come they switched to significantly depleting Dartmouth Dam from approx. 65% at the start of August 2006 down to approx. 10% at the start of May 2007. In the same timeframe, due to the lack of inflows, Hume Dam had also dwindled to approx. 7%.

Since then, Dartmouth has only recovered to approx. 17% and Hume to approx. 28%. It doesn't take blind Freddy to work out from these graphs that the MDBC water release policy for the last two years was SERIOUSLY flawed - how could such quantities be splurged down the gurgler in so short a space of time without considering the future consequences of a "worse than average" dry spell? At the same time, the message this extravagant water release policy must have sent to downstream towns and irrigators was "use it up big time - we expect massive rainfall to top us back up again" - and these people are the experts in managing our very existence in the future?

I just pray that next year, we don't have "the worst drought ever". If it continues even worse (and WHO is to bet that it won't?) we will all be "up the creek without a paddle".

AJ

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

S.A Water says, that they will likely be handing out
bottled water in Adelaide, within the next year ... !~!

Seems like it will be only a short period of time, before S.A Water will
be building that relaitively short Reticulate Australia pipeline, from
officer Basin to Adelaide ..... to bless them with the sweetest water,
that croweaters have ever tasted ...

have a great weekend all

paul

P.S. ..... Reticulate Australia thread:
Reticulate Australia