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- 28 August 2006
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Like most on this forum, i am pondering the future direction of the world economy and have found what appear to be several contradictions in key markets.
US bonds are going up, while ours are still going down. Logical conclusion is a currency depreciation (AUD) is expected, thereby causing inflation here. However, most key metals prices remain (over the past week or so)strong as have oil prices, which implies the AUD will not depreciate.
This contradicts the idea of a US slow down/recession (as implied by US bond prices). I realise that the US doesnt dominate the world economy as much as it did even 10 years ago, but lets face it, they are still central to what happens globally, especially given their intertwined r'ship with China. This r'ship should increase the r'ship between the US and commodity prices and Australia, thereby making the contradiction mentioned above even more severe.
Can anyone add something to this?
US bonds are going up, while ours are still going down. Logical conclusion is a currency depreciation (AUD) is expected, thereby causing inflation here. However, most key metals prices remain (over the past week or so)strong as have oil prices, which implies the AUD will not depreciate.
This contradicts the idea of a US slow down/recession (as implied by US bond prices). I realise that the US doesnt dominate the world economy as much as it did even 10 years ago, but lets face it, they are still central to what happens globally, especially given their intertwined r'ship with China. This r'ship should increase the r'ship between the US and commodity prices and Australia, thereby making the contradiction mentioned above even more severe.
Can anyone add something to this?
