WOR - Worley Limited

[michael_selway]

Omg looks likes it going to make its 2008 Forecast in 2006!

Half Yearly out today

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060228/pdf/3vms6zz3x5t18.pdf

On Comsec

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 51.5 61.6 69.7
DPS 20.0 29.0 36.0 42.0

Highlights:
141.7% increase in net profit after tax to $61.8m (Basic earnings per share were 30.1 cents, an increase of 94.2% from the 15.5 cents per share reported in the previous corresponding period).

Outlook:
Based on the strong results achieved so far and subject to reasonable conditions inthe markets in which we operate for the remainder of this financial year we would expect to report a modest improvement on the first half’s very good result.

Hm absolutely amazing!

thx

MS

 

[jamestom77]

Worley Parsons - Earnings troubles

Take a big step big back.

Worley is "just another stock", no different to the rest.

Facts:

1. They can't maintain there P/E for much longer
2. They ARE going to have problems keeping pace with current earnings
2. Now that the words out, EVERYONE will want in. Energy services is no different, other companies will try to replicate them, it's only a matter of time
4. They are over staffed BIG time !!

Be careful folks, it's not what you think and the pros are already out, we should know.

JT77.

 

[nizar]

iv been watching this stock for a while...

yes this stock has had a big run last year and this year....

i think what is amazing is how healthy their balance sheet looks....

they could easily afford to make acquisitions, since they only have 1.6% debt...

they in the right business in the right time... though i dont think 2006 will be as great for their stock as 2005 has... the market always expects MORE... and the results released on tuesday are going to be very tough to beat...

share price might run a bit more as it will soon be included in asx100.... all those index fund managers....

 

[Ann]

Re: Worley Parsons - Earnings troubles

Be careful folks, it's not what you think and the pros are already out, we should know.

JT77.

Hi JT77,

Who are the "we" of whom you are speaking? Are you one of the pros?

If the pros have been out for the last few days, they have missed some excellent price rises.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Worley Parsons - Earnings troubles

Take a big step big back.

Worley is "just another stock", no different to the rest.

Facts:

1. They can't maintain there P/E for much longer
2. They ARE going to have problems keeping pace with current earnings
2. Now that the words out, EVERYONE will want in. Energy services is no different, other companies will try to replicate them, it's only a matter of time
4. They are over staffed BIG time !!

Be careful folks, it's not what you think and the pros are already out, we should know.

JT77.

The thing is they have such a unique and offers such diverse services to the energy/resource sector and are very global

WOR operates across 5 key sectors: Oil & Gas; Refining, Petrochemicals & Chemicals; Minerals & Metals; Power & Water; and Industrial & Infrastructure. Operations span 14 countries in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and United States and its client base includes Alcoa, BP, Shell, Origin, and BHP Billiton.

is there any compnaies u know that are similar and as diverse?

Also im waiting for the new forecasts, but im sure foreward P/E wont be that high at $17. Growth is huge imo still

thx

MS

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3653
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...ket-doubles-net/2006/02/28/1141095743778.html

 

[jamestom77]

Re: WOR - Worley Parsons -

I hear what you're all saying and from a long term point of view, your arguments are strong.

However...

We've seen this before. Infrastructure & services aren't new and it takes a brave person indeed to be buying at these levels. Some insto's were in there Friday & today but only to mind it NOT buy it.

Be exceedingly careful otherwise you might find yourself in it for the long haul but for all the wrong reasons.

Both fundamentally and technically this is way overbought, $16.20 is very much in play.

JT.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: WOR - Worley Parsons -

I hear what you're all saying and from a long term point of view, your arguments are strong.

However...

We've seen this before. Infrastructure & services aren't new and it takes a brave person indeed to be buying at these levels. Some insto's were in there Friday & today but only to mind it NOT buy it.

Be exceedingly careful otherwise you might find yourself in it for the long haul but for all the wrong reasons.

Both fundamentally and technically this is way overbought, $16.20 is very much in play.

JT.

Hi new forecasts out on Comsec, fwd 2007 P/E about 20 so not that high even at $17, but fair value ill say currently PE 31

Thing is, the 2006 forecast seems very conservative 63.6 EPS?

CEO said “modest improvement on the first half’s very good result” u would at least say 20% more like 30-50%?. Plus surprise contracts could mean even more etc

30.1*1.2 + 30.1 = 66.22 if it was 20%

What do others think that a “Modest” % would be?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 63.6 79.4 88.7
DPS 20.0 32.5 40.0 47.5

Was before half yearly

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 51.5 61.6 69.7
DPS 20.0 29.0 36.0 42.0

Highlights:
141.7% increase in net profit after tax to $61.8m (Basic earnings per share were 30.1 cents, an increase of 94.2% from the 15.5 cents per share reported in the previous corresponding period).

Outlook:
Based on the strong results achieved so far and subject to reasonable conditions inthe markets in which we operate for the remainder of this financial year we would expect to report a modest improvement on the first half’s very good result.

 

[Ann]

Everything still looks good on the chart, perhaps a bit of sideways consolidation?
WOR goes Ex-divie on the 16/03/06. It will be interesting to see if the price can be dragged down on Ex-divie day or if the stockholders will maintain their grip.

 

[michael_selway]

Everything still looks good on the chart, perhaps a bit of sideways consolidation?
WOR goes Ex-divie on the 16/03/06. It will be interesting to see if the price can be dragged down on Ex-divie day or if the stockholders will maintain their grip.

Hi

Slightly increased 2008 forecast

However 2006 still is very conservative?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 63.1 78.6 92.1
DPS 20.0 39.5 48.0 54.0

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 63.6 79.4 88.7
DPS 20.0 32.5 40.0 47.5

 

[michael_selway]

Everything still looks good on the chart, perhaps a bit of sideways consolidation?
WOR goes Ex-divie on the 16/03/06. It will be interesting to see if the price can be dragged down on Ex-divie day or if the stockholders will maintain their grip.

Hi Ann how do u see it in the charts now? it keeps climbing higher every now and then!

Current concensus forecasts slighly lowered, but again that 2006 forecast is still very conservative imo, i think they are in for a surprise again in 6 months time!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 62.6 77.7 88.7
DPS 20.0 39.5 48.0 54.0

thx

ms

 

[Lachlan6]

Chart says yes. From daily perspective may see a retracement, however when its going like this why not hold. I dont, too expensive for me, but the chart is spot on. What a day today.

 

[Ann]

Hi Michael and Lachlan6,

Doing very, very well isn't it? Most impressive. I would have expected it to slow down in unison with some of the big miners.....not to be so far.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: WOR - Worley Parsons -

Thing is, the 2006 forecast seems very conservative 63.6 EPS?

CEO said “modest improvement on the first half’s very good result” u would at least say 20% more like 30-50%?. Plus surprise contracts could mean even more etc

30.1*1.2 + 30.1 = 66.22 if it was 20%

What do others think that a “Modest” % would be?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 63.6 79.5 95.4
DPS 20.0 39.5 49.0 59.0

Was before half yearly

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 51.5 61.6 69.7
DPS 20.0 29.0 36.0 42.0

Hm annoucement out today, yeah just as i thought, CEO's "modest" = about 20% improvement on the 1st half, not 10% as the consesus forecast thought. However im guessing when eth final is out in August its likely to be 30-40% improvement on first half.

At the release of the 2006 first half net profit after tax result the company indicated that:

“We expect the markets for WorleyParsons’ services will continue to be strong. Our key markets and sectors continue to experience positive conditions, in particular hydrocarbons and power.

Based on the strong results achieved so far and subject to reasonable conditions in the markets in which we operate for the remainder of this financial year we would expect to report a modest improvement on the first half’s very good result.”

Following a review of trading result and subject to a continuation of positive trading conditions across all markets for the remainder of this year it is likely that the 2nd half result will be stronger than previously advised and will be around the top end of analysts’ current forecasts which is approximately 20% higher than the 1st half

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060515/pdf/3wr5bd0v47js8.pdf
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/leighton-marches-to-260m-beat/2006/05/15/1147545261666.html

 

[michael_selway]

Date: 16/6/2006
Author: Tim Findlay
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35

When WorleyParsons moves to the S&P/ASX 100 index on 16 June 2006, fund managers will not be celebrating. The Australian engineering firm is a favourite with small-capitalization stock specialists. Since listing in November 2002, the shares have returned more than 1,000 per cent. Small-cap managers will be forced to sell the stock when it is removed from the Small Ordinaries Index, where it has a weighting of three per cent. On the other hand, large-cap managers will not have to buy the stock when it moves to the larger S&P/ASX 100, where it will be only a minor player. Many managers do not like the fact they have to sell a good stock because of index changes

 

[Smurf1976]

Many managers do not like the fact they have to sell a good stock because of index changes

One of the inherent problems with managed funds. If you're just going to track the index then not much need for a manager at all...

 

[chennyleeeee]

What I might say might seem a little niave but has anyone noticed that thier stock chart seems to match their revenues but not their profits or their cash flows. Historically for a $4 billion company, would you really expect 80 million dollars? I havent had a look at their recent announcements yet but I wouldnt expect something super considering the commodities and energy market is dying down somewhat. Their revenues have quadified but their profits have only doubled. I dont know but I would like to see it making at least 300 million a year before i invest here. Okay unexpected announcements do good on a company, but you have to be reasonable people, hence Paladin, hence Poseidon, hence the entire Tech Boom.

This company is owned by one of my friends friend's dad, lol. His dad's must be pretty bloody happy now. But then again, all that could wash away as quickly as it came. If you owned the company, would you start cashing out? The best time is the overpriced time. lol

CHEN

 

[chennyleeeee]

I'm probably talking s**t, feel free to debate my opinions but honestly, I dont like the fundamentals, I dont care how good they look I just dont like it. Its a good company but NOT that good. Companies that keep releasing unexpected projections are just giving markets a false impression of the company.

Patrick corp is a 4 billion dollar company, makes 200 mil a year, Fairfax, $252, Boral, $376, Zinifex $250, Leighton, $205 to name a few in the same cap range.

CHEN

 

[michael_selway]

I'm probably talking s**t, feel free to debate my opinions but honestly, I dont like the fundamentals, I dont care how good they look I just dont like it. Its a good company but NOT that good. Companies that keep releasing unexpected projections are just giving markets a false impression of the company.

Patrick corp is a 4 billion dollar company, makes 200 mil a year, Fairfax, $252, Boral, $376, Zinifex $250, Leighton, $205 to name a few in the same cap range.

CHEN

Well current/forward PE is quite high

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 31.2 67.0 86.7 103.3
DPS 20.0 40.5 51.8 62.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 67.0 28.5 114.8%
Year Ending 30-06-07 86.7 22.0 29.4%

But thing is it keep surprising with its Earnings. Basically its a compnay in the right place (high globally based) and at the right time (igh commodity prices). Its services also cover the right areas

WOR operates across 5 key sectors: Oil & Gas; Refining, Petrochemicals & Chemicals; Minerals & Metals; Power & Water; and Industrial & Infrastructure. Operations span 14 countries in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and United States and its client base includes Alcoa, BP, Shell, Origin, and BHP Billiton.

thx

MS

 

[chennyleeeee]

Even with the 2008 forecasted EPS, the company is still on a P/E ratio well above 15 and with this much volatility in the market, Im surprised there's so much confidence. I still think its too high to be buying this company. Never know, some of you might be reading this in 2008 and start thinking, unlucky naive man. But then again if i want a tenbagger, i dont think WOR will be the one to offer it. =)

CHEN

 

[scsl]

WOR reported its full year results on Tuesday (29th August). Despite being slightly above expectations with its 106% increase in net profit, the market has since pounded the stock because of growth concerns over the coming year.

The last 4 days has seen the sp down 13%. I'm not much of a technical trader (still learning ) but I think WOR has been oversold and that we could see a suckers' bounce sometime next week. Any one think differently? e.g. are the growth concerns serious enough to see the sp fall even further? WOR has been trading at a P/E above its competitors and perhaps the market is trying price out the previous high growth expetations.

Also, looking at the candlestick chart, WOR bounced sharply after it fell to an intraday low of about $17.50 on the 14 June this year. So will we perhaps see WOR close up sharply on Monday? On the other hand, a close below $17.40 could be very bearish. WOR will be a good long/short CFD trade in the coming days.

cheers,
scsl