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WIRE - GlobalX Copper Miners ETF

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What junior finickys.
Yeah I'm hoping to get on but prepared to miss out if it doesn't get down to $12 or sub, which I suspect it will. I'll still have some exposure via BHP, S32 and a couple of explorers.
 
I wouldn't go over the top with expectations on this. Copper is merely another cyclical commodity that follows the supply/demand cycle. We think that demand will outstrip supply as the electrification process accelerates, however this electrification process is getting bogged down by red and green tape.

I hope that copper finds support at $4/lb were it is currently. However China's economic growth is slowing and they're the largest buyer of copper. If the world's economy goes into a depression that'll reduce demand for copper and delay the next copper price rally. It's possible that copper falls lower to $3.50/lb. If it does I'll buy a little extra with a 1 - 2 yr outlook. Loading up the truck for me is buying copper exposure up to 20% of portfolio not more. I'm currently holding about 5% copper. This is in a drawdown and I'm comfortable to continue to hold it.
 

Totally depends on time frame. There's every chance we go into depression and WW in the next few years. It's why I'm still 70% cash.
 
Sean K said:
Totally depends on time frame. There's every chance we go into depression and WW in the next few years. It's why I'm still 70% cash.
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And while many still see copper in term of the usual mining giants:

Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners

Chinese miners are set to overtake major producers by 2025.
www.visualcapitalist.com
Surprising isnt it?
Our green and red tape has a cost..
And when more mines will pip up in Afghanistan india and the stans. It will not be green LGBT bhp....
 
If you weren't watching the level of debt growing around the world and potential financial meltdown that will destroy equities, you'd look at this chart and think it's a pretty good set up. Got slightly better since last post, and after last night's action, will gap up again going through a bit of resistance at this level.

 
'Market Matters' today:

Copper (Cu) surged another +3.5% on renewed optimism about China, which is getting the big guns out! The December contract closed ~9% below its 2024 high, with the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX US) rallying another 5%, which bodes well for Sandfire Resources (SFR) & others this morning. We have no intention of fading this move yet, which coincides with our long-term bullish structural view towards global electrification.
  • We are positive toward Cu into 2025 with an initial re-test of $US5.00 likely into Christmas.
 
This was in an excellent set up for a break up. It's a shame it gaps up and down so much overnight.

 
Copper not doing so well since the US election.

Presume the US going more Nuclear baseload and potential tariffs is the driver, should have thought more about the election that what I did.
 
houtman said:
Copper not doing so well since the US election.

Presume the US going more Nuclear baseload and potential tariffs is the driver, should have thought more about the election that what I did.
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Yeah, Sep looked like it was going to get back on a solid upward trend but it stalled. Some excuses about China not delivering enough stimulus.



WIRE is sitting on some support but looks like it might go through the moving averages which is pretty bearish.

I'm staying long WIRE for the inevitable copper crunch, even if there's a super recession in between.

 
Copper crunch?
Another nickel drama coming i guess, and China and Indonesia..think png west..are in great talks right now.
I am less positive copper now than i was 6 months ago
 
The copper crunch is lack of new discoveries, lower grades in current mines and less supply of the concentrate to the mills isn’t it? That’s one of the reasons for overcapacity in production? Maybe I better do some more research.
 
Sean K said:
The copper crunch is lack of new discoveries, lower grades in current mines and less supply of the concentrate to the mills isn’t it? That’s one of the reasons for overcapacity in production? Maybe I better do some more research.
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I expect 6 months of commodities fall,even PMs initially.just adding trailing SL and buying miners in 5 months.
Copper but others too
Oil coal uranium might differ
 
Sean K said:
The copper crunch is lack of new discoveries, lower grades in current mines and less supply of the concentrate to the mills isn’t it? That’s one of the reasons for overcapacity in production? Maybe I better do some more research.
Click to expand...
It would be worth keeping an eye on the majors, BHP, RIO, Freeport and their efforts at increasing leaching returns from both tailings and mine.
How it plays out in supply/demand, no idea, it's an omitted variable at my level.


Nuton: A better way to produce copper

www.riotinto.com
 

There's been a pretty quick shift in some short term forecasts for the red metal.



Citi warned that higher tariffs under the returning US president and a subsequent retaliation by its trading partners could trigger a “global growth shock”. That threatens to extend the downturn in global manufacturing beyond next year given China’s insufficient attempts to revive its economy.

“Copper positioning remains significantly out of line with underlying manufacturing sentiment [which] is difficult to justify given the heightened risk that US and China policy decisions derail expectations for a 2025 global manufacturing rebound,” Citi analyst Shreyas Madabushi said.

“Investors may want to take risk off the table until there is more policy certainty, which may not emerge until Trump assumes office in January.”

Citi’s caution is in stark contrast to its views just six months ago when the broker predicted “explosive price upside” over the next few years would rocket copper to more than $US15,000 a tonne.

But the backdrop for base metals has changed significantly since copper hit a record high above $US11,000 a tonne in May as hopes for a global rebound in manufacturing deteriorated after the purchasing managers’ index figures for October signalled that sentiment remains weak.
 
Sean K said:
Citi’s caution is in stark contrast to its views just six months ago when the broker predicted “explosive price upside” over the next few years would rocket copper to more than $US15,000 a tonne.
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Yeah, I dumped my copper producer yesterday, too many unknowns atm.
See if there are some opportunities in the new year,

frugal.rock said:
Me too, stupid dogecoin has doubled
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But you're a cat!
Agree though, any time Elon hits the headlines in a big way doge responds.
 
comment for FY25 challenge;

The long term copper story is there, a faltering China has caused some hesitant like for a lot of my picks in the challenge they all come around the idea that China will not let its economy tank and will intervene majorly.

Additionally I am foreseeing a rotation (at least for the included Australian assets from the Banks --> Resources)
 
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