This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

WIRE - GlobalX Copper Miners ETF

Jump to new

One of the oddities with these thematic ETFs is when a BHP appears at No 8. It might be the top 8 copper producer (don't know), but it's overall value is influenced elsewhere. Makes me wonder about these thematic ETFs.
 
I don't mind BHP in this ETF as it does produce copper. The ETF needs diversification and copper is often produced as a by product of gold production (eg EVN). A BHP inclusion will lag the POC but will reduce volatility in the ETF if other commodities are rallying (eg iron ore in BHP case).

The SFR holding is 4.1% and that's making new highs, but clearly the bigger contributor to this ETF is . . . .

29M at 0.18%. Go you little beauty.
 
Been holding this patiently for the past couple of years watching it go nowhere. Finally a bit of action with copper crashing 4 bucks and the stocks over reacting. Imagine when copper goes to 5 bucks!

The world is running out of copper and there's nothing of significance coming on line to replace it. That can only mean one thing.

 
I should have taken more notice of WIRE; no negative daily candles yet, probably a bit more in it, but getting due for a correction is how see it. It's momentum indicators are at overbought, it's excessively above its moving average and it is approaching a price level where it has failed in the past.
Rather than buy this on a correction I'll probably complacently stay with BHP, S32 and a couple of specs with maybe a chance (HMX, TLM). Not suggesting this is an optimal course, just that I remain unexcited by what's available on the ASX and rejected SFR again just recently after looking at its chart and valuation. Besides, the feeling that cash should be hoarded is rising again.

Not Held

DAILY All Data
 

In 10 years time, I'll buy you a beer.
 
Looks like $12.50 ish is broken for the moment. Hopefully a floor. Fingers crossed copper keeps heading north but who knows with Chinese demand. Longer term I can't see how copper is not going to do well unless an infinite new source magically appears.

 
There is a big source out there that someone is sitting on
 
This is going better than expected. Had to be patient though. I'm not sure how much copper has gone up during the same period but this is up 50% in a couple of months. Copper knocking on 5 bucks now. Must be some consolidation to come.

 
Checking the current holdings in this copper miners ETF. Top 10 still at 50%.



Thinking of accumulating a position in this during this correction (pull-back).
(plus the US ETFs CPER (Cu futures), COPX, COPP (Sprott)).

Hard to place a possible support line on the ETFs as they depend on the copper price finding support. I would like to see copper find support here at 4.50/lb ($9500/ton). The next level is back down at 4.00/lb and I don't wish to see it there. Although if it did drop this low it would be a "back up the truck" buy and hold for the next few years.
 
Got my too casual call on WIRE wrong. It had another 50% of its run to go. Made me review my use of overbought on my main momentum indicator as well as skittishness when price is around level of previous peaks. Anyway has regressed to not far off the breakout level lately.

I had another brief look at it and didn't get far - not up for trying to value its constituents. So then limited to taking a macro view and doing a chart read it seems. Not up my alley anyway.

Not Held
WEEKLY All Data

 
Bit of a rebound from WIRE, I sure do pick the moments. But I'm still left in a quandary as to its asset (book) value with all its constituents and most being on foreign exchanges anyway.
Apart from holding to a macro view on copper, are this thread's participants just taking a punt on the sum of fundamental valuations of the constituents justifying the etf price?

In for a penny, in for a pound ..
Chart shows low volume to the rebound so far in what is an illiquid stock anyway. With hindsight can say that a rally was due given oversold momentum levels.
Price is approaching the level of 13.50 that I impute as resistance where the prior support was. This coincides with price being not far off a weak 2 touch downtrend resistance line at about 13.85 now fwiw
Can't take much notice of gaps, they're everywhere but there is a big one down at ~11.80

I'm going to diffidently guess a lower low after this rally.

Not Held

DAILY
 
I consider that a sector ETF like WIRE is an equity portfolio of global copper producers/refiners. Company fundamentals aren't a concern. I'm interested in WIRE due to my longer term bullish outlook for copper prices. I'm interested in this ETF as it's less risky than any single copper stock. Less risk means less reward though but I'm comfortable with this in this case.

For a while, SFR was the only company on the ASX where copper production was their major business. Since then CSC and MAC have listed.

Now we could argue that an ETF security doesn't trade in the same manner as a company stock due to its diversified holdings. This may mean that appraising the ETF price chart could be slightly different than a stock price chart. There's less emotional interaction with an ETF than what we see in a stock chart.

I've noticed that this ETF trades in a similar manner to the copper price. Overall sentiment about copper at any time influences price movement in this ETF. I wouldn't describe this ETF as oversold but rather the copper price is oversold and WIRE is reflecting this. When POC was at $4/lb WIRE was trading near 12.75. Recently POC bounced off $4/lb and WIRE has bounced off 12.75 again. When copper is at support/resistance level, so is WIRE.

Could WIRE go lower? It will, if copper goes lower however as copper is an essential commodity for electrification it'll always have some value. I'm optimistic that the price of copper will rise as demand outstrips supply in the near future (1-2yrs). So rather than trying to determine which of the global copper producers will profit the most from this anticipated rally I'm comfortable holding this ETF.

Note: Not currently holding WIRE as I'm holding 29M, A1M, CSC, MAC, SFR, COPX.us, FCX.us
 
Discusses WIRE from 17.12 including a suggestion for an accumulative buying range for the patient investor ($11- $11.50), but basically consider buying at <$12.

Earlier he talks about the strength of copper and its LT outperformance of other industrial metals: Zn, Al, Ni.

Not Held

 

Why don't you hold this? It's going to be a generational opportunity. Something to hand down to the junior finickys.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...