WIN - WIN Metals

basilio said:

Yeah amazing isn't it ? I really don't know what will happen with WIN. Every update on the Nickel resource has been very good. It has certainly proven a viable nickel producing prospect. But the SP is sitting way below par.

At one stage it just kept powering up as drill after drill demonstrated a substantial, quality asset. But that worm has turned . If I had to think of a good outcome it would be NMT coming back to the stock and putting in sufficient capital to kick off Nickel production . It would be good value for both parties.

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The nickel price is falling but there is meant to be a shortage coming.

"Nickel Price is at a current level of 17027.36, down from 18281.23 last month and down from 25562.70 one year ago. This is a change of -6.86% from last month and -33.39% from one year ago."

Why is this occurring, too many mines?

basilio said:

This has not been a good year on market for WIN. Despite a string of excellent upgrades on its nickel resources and a promising new Lithium project the SP has cratered.

Nonetheless I am hopeful 2024 will see success in terms of commercialisation of their resources. I have tipped WIN in the full year comp. (and that didn't work)

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And then realised it had cratered too far to be a live pic for the contest.

Naturally it has JUMPED almost 30% since then. On historical basis it will probably go south again in the next day or so.

Knobby22 said:

The nickel price is falling but there is meant to be a shortage coming.

"Nickel Price is at a current level of 17027.36, down from 18281.23 last month and down from 25562.70 one year ago. This is a change of -6.86% from last month and -33.39% from one year ago."

Why is this occurring, too many mines?

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The Chinese are pouring money into Indonesia to oversupply the market, the nickel processing there is acid leached laterite ore, it's called pig iron nickel nasty process by all accounts.
This is an old article, but same issue.

sptrawler said:

The Chinese are pouring money into Indonesia to oversupply the market, the nickel processing there is acid leached laterite ore, it's called pig iron nickel nasty process by all accounts.
This is an old article, but same issue.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE6AG05L/#:~:text=WHAT%20IS%20NICKEL%20PIG%20IRON,40%20percent%20in%20conventional%20ferronickel.

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Thanks for that SP. The current collapse of nickel prices is certainly going to cause many operations to stop or in WINs case perhaps never begin - at least until prices levels reach a value proposition.

I wonder if the sum total of valuable metals in the mine would make an economic prospect ? The drills point out the presence of Palladium Platinum gold, Copper and Cobalt as well as Nickel. Perhaps the best way to make a dollar on this mine at the current nickel prices is separating all the valuable ores. Probably none of individual ores would be worth the processing but together they could make a viable proposition.

The language of the last Press Release was telling. This is a medium term nickel prospect. Unless some very clever person can show a way of extracting all the valuable minerals in cost effective processes the mine won't be operated any time soon.

Just to highlight the problems with current Australian nickel mines not making a buck.

On-site staff at Panoramic Resources Savannah nickel mine made redundant as prices continue to fall​

ABC Kimberley
/ By Alys Marshall
Posted 13m ago13 minutes ago, updated 5m ago5 minutes ago

Panoramic Resources drill underground at their Savannah nickel mine in WA's Kimberley region.(Supplied: Panoramic Resources)

Link copied


Panoramic Resources, the company that operates one of Western Australia's few nickel mines, has advised the market it plans to make 140 on-site jobs redundant.

Key points:​

• Panoramic Resources announced in December that it was going into voluntary administration
• The company employs more than 150 staff and 200 contractors at its Savannah nickel mine in the Kimberley
• The price of nickel has fallen by 44 per cent in the past 12 months

basilio said:

Thanks for that SP. The current collapse of nickel prices is certainly going to cause many operations to stop or in WINs case perhaps never begin - at least until prices levels reach a value proposition.

I wonder if the sum total of valuable metals in the mine would make an economic prospect ? The drills point out the presence of Palladium Platinum gold, Copper and Cobalt as well as Nickel. Perhaps the best way to make a dollar on this mine at the current nickel prices is separating all the valuable ores. Probably none of individual ores would be worth the processing but together they could make a viable proposition.

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The problems are not just with nickel, they are with most of our processing industries, the fact that nickel is the first cab off the rank is only because China has exposed our excessive underlying production costs.
As I said a long time ago, there will be a lot of unintended consequences with the push to clean energy, that really hasn't kicked in yet, the major cost problem at the moment is the rapid increase through inflation costs.
This is the downside of the Govt pushing welfare and wages up to chase the inflation up, it pushes the output cost up proportionally, we then have a new "normal" set, which means everything is more expensive.

In the past we have usually just had the "recession we had to have", this time it is a Whitlam sort of thing where the economy is priced up IMO.

Interesting times, we really are yet to see the fall out, it has only just begun, the energy cost is coming next.

sptrawler said:

As I said a long time ago, there will be a lot of unintended consequences with the push to clean energy, that really hasn't kicked in yet, the major cost problem at the moment is the rapid increase through inflation costs.

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I just can't see that SP. Yes energy costs are a factor in mining. However the process of electrification of many mining processes is a cost effective way of driving down operation costs. FMG may have started the ball rolling but all the big miners are coming to the same conclusion. Fossil Fuel mining processes can be successfully turned to PV electric and the IRR is compelling.

The article you pointed to previously highlighted the role of cheaper, nastier ore extraction processes that will drive down costs and be more profitable. It has always been the case in mining that cutting corners on all the elements will increase the profit. The question we face is

1) Do we want to have our environment degraded by toxic mine processes and sites that are left to poison the wider community ?
2) Do we endorse the view that health, safety and fair pay for mine employees are merely aspirational ?

basilio said:

I just can't see that SP. Yes energy costs are a factor in mining. However the process of electrification of many mining processes is a cost effective way of driving down operation costs. FMG may have started the ball rolling but all the big miners are coming to the same conclusion. Fossil Fuel mining processes can be successfully turned to PV electric and the IRR is compelling.

The article you pointed to previously highlighted the role of cheaper, nastier ore extraction processes that will drive down costs and be more profitable. It has always been the case in mining that cutting corners on all the elements will increase the profit. The question we face is

1) Do we want to have our environment degraded by toxic mine processes and sites that are left to poison the wider community ?
2) Do we endorse the view that health, safety and fair pay for mine employees are merely aspirational ?

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You obviously misunderstand the difference between a pure miner and a mining activity that actually relies on the thermal processing of the ore, but hey that's o.k.
Everyone to their own thoughts and their personal analysis i.e, iron ore Vs nickel.

sptrawler said:

You obviously misunderstand the difference between a pure miner and a mining activity that actually relies on the thermal processing of the ore, but hey that's o.k.

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Ok so is there a thermal process involved with nickel production that seems incapable of being electrified ? Whatever it is or isn't I struggle to see how the cost of fuel in such a process means the total difference between Australian and Indonesian production costs.

The issues I raised were substantially beyond the cost of energy input.

________________________________________________________________________

This story adds another perspective to the rise of Indonesian nickel production and teh collapse of nickel prices overall.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bears-bet-big-that-nickel-can-close-product-gap-2023-11-01/

basilio said:

Ok so is there a thermal process involved with nickel production that seems incapable of being electrified ? Whatever it is or isn't I struggle to see how the cost of fuel in such a process means the total difference between Australian and Indonesian production costs.

The issues I raised were substantially beyond the cost of energy input.

________________________________________________________________________

This story adds another perspective to the rise of Indonesian nickel production and teh collapse of nickel prices overall.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bears-bet-big-that-nickel-can-close-product-gap-2023-11-01/

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That's the good thing about investing everyone has a different take on it, depending on their background usually.
Just wondering, do you know actually anything about nickel processing, or how WIN would process their ore?

sptrawler said:

That's the good thing about investing everyone has a different take on it, depending on their background usually.
Just wondering, do you know actually anything about nickel processing, or how WIN would process their ore?

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Until you opened the conversation I knew very little. From a big picture general perspective I imagined very substantial mining operations, crushing, some sort of separation of nickel bearing particles and then treatment to obtain the quality of nickel required. At the end there would a mountain of waste to somehow neutralise and safely maintain.

WIN had indicated in its prospectus that it would use the nearby Kambalda Nickel Concentrater to treat its ores. This meant they didn't have to stump up for the capital requirements of treating the ore. It was one of the elements that in my mind suggested they could go from explorer to producer relatively quickly

I did google the process and Britannica came up with its story. Not a simple deal but clearly the processes have been worked out over the years.

Another update on the Widgie 3 resources. Again a substantial uplift if volume and quality. They have also identified the Gold Palladium and Platinum resources in the drills.

Reading through the report they are highlighting the economics of constructing an onsite concentrater. This would be instead of transporting the ore to the Kamblada operations. I think the current nickel price would not allow sufficient margin if the ore is processed through a third party which naturally will take its cut. The long term value lies in establishing sufficient reserves and quality to justify investing in new infrastructure. I suspect it will also require accessing the the other minerals identified in the reserves.

How this will be financed and how long it will take to construct ? Medium term is the critical statement.

Widgie 3 Mineral Resource Update
Highlights

• Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) now stands at 734Kt @ 1.53% Ni for 11,200 nickel tonnes.

• 70% of the MRE classified as Indicated for 6,880t of contained nickel. 2018 MRE1 was classified as Inferred only.

• 14% increase in nickel grade with a significant 32% reduction in contained arsenic versus the 2018 MRE (above a cut-off of 0.7% Ni).

• 2024 MRE now includes Palladium + Platinum + Gold (3PGE). With Au (0.14g/t), Pt (0.19g/t) and Pd (0.45g/t) for 0.78g/t 3PGE (equating to 3,370oz Au, 4,550oz Pt and 10,520oz Pd).

• 2024 MRE contains 222kt of high grade 1.95% Ni Inferred Resources at depth. Mineralisation remains open at depth with increasing grade potential.

• 63% of the 91,270t of nickel MRE at Widgie South Project Area is now classified as Indicated Resources.
• Total Mt Edwards Nickel Resource grows to 191,340t of contained nickel.

Next Steps for Widgie 3

This MRE update will inform the pending Scoping Study for a multi-mine operation to support a standalone nickel concentrator. Additional drilling will be required to convert any areas of outstanding lower confidence Inferred material to indicated. This will allow for subsequent conversion of this material into a Mining Reserve upon confirmation of economic viability. Further drilling at depth below existing mineralisation represents an excellent high confidence target to add additional resources.

Another update on the Widgie Resources. Again a stronger result than originally. The current reality however is that current mines aren't able to turn a profit let alone a new one.
Perhaps management have to look at how a multi mine approach that took value from all the minerals could be successsfully developed. Maybe

Widgie Townsite Mineral Resource Update
Highlights
• Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for Widgie Townsite 2.50Mt @ 1.53% Ni for 38,260 nickel tonnes.

• Increased Confidence of resource with 69% of the nickel metal classified as Indicated Resources for 26,460t of nickel.

• Indicated contained nickel metal has increased 32% from 2021 MRE1 update.

• 2024 MRE now includes Palladium + Platinum + Gold (3PGE). With Au (0.08g/t), Pt (0.10g/t) and Pd (0.21g/t) for 0.39g/t 3PGE (equating to 6,350oz Au, 7,965oz Pt and 16,650oz Pd).

• Mineralisation remains open at depth with prospective Eastern Limb untested.

• 71% of the 90,230t of contained nickel at the Widgie South Project Area is now classified as Indicated Resources.

• Total Mt Edwards Nickel Resource stands at 190,300t of contained nickel.

Widgie Nickel Managing Director and CEO, Mr Steve Norregaard, commented:
"The fourth of 6 resource revisions we have fortuitously been able to achieve prior to the Scoping Study, represents a further success in building confidence with what was previously a 50% inferred resource. We now have 69% of the contained nickel in the indicated category. Whilst nickel grade has marginally reduced we are now better armed with no surprises in store with an underlying mining rationale adopted in our Scoping Study able to accommodate all possible scenarios.”
“A modest reduction in overall contained metal is evidence of the rigour and the drilling effort we have put into Widgie Townsite to get it right! Alongside Gillett and Widgie 3, over 90,000t of nickel metal is now defined, which will underpin a restart of mining at Mt Edwards. We have removed ambiguity and uncertainty which the company will otherwise be exposed to early in operational life. This outcome highlights the importance of proper uncompromising technical work for which I am grateful to our drilling contractors, employee’s expertise and the wise counsel from our geological consultants.”
“Widgie Townsite is now another high-quality resource in the company's portfolio, cementing the positive prospects for the upcoming scoping study.”
“Widgie’s unique and highly strategic assemblage of 12 resources in close proximity make for a wonderful opportunity to build a long life, high confidence, low risk mining operation in the medium term.”

Quarterly Report came out yesterday. They are certainly a bunch of busy beavers across the multiple nickel and lithium mining sites.
The sad fact is that for the forseeable future I can't see how they will create a profitable mining operation.

Management can't see it either. So the question remains

'Given the proven high quality of the reserves how can WIN either create some exit value for shareholders or stay solvent long enough to develop a mine if/when nickel prices recover ?
Anyone have any ideas ?



As at 31 December 2023, Widgie held $2.59 million cash at bank. Full details regarding the Company’s cash movements during the Quarter can be found in the attached Appendix 5B.

The Company notes the rapid deterioriation of the nickel and lithium prices and its resultant deletrious effect on equity markets. The Company has sought to wind back expenditures which remain largely in line with existing plans but has implemented further austerity measures to preserve existing cash reserves whilst this period of uncertainty prevails. High cost drilling activities have been curtailed with the primary focus for the forthcoming period being on desk top studies, metallurgical testwork and regional field exploration activities.

Train wreck.

Carnage continues in slow motion

Another High Grade Lithium Update at the Farson prospect.
A general question. WIN has explored and proven the presence of quality nickel, gold, palladium , lithium on its tenements. Does this exploration and proving of resources offer a tangible value to the company ?

High Grade Lithium Discovery at Farson

Highlights

• First assays received delivering high grade lithium samples up to 2.52% Li2O.
• Visible spodumene identified and supported by high grade rock chip assay including;

• 2.52% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0045
• 1.53% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0043
• 1.31% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0044
• 1.28% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0046

• New search space unlocked with lithium bearing pegmatites hosted within sediments, previously not thought to be prospective.
• Multiple lithium bearing pegmatites mapped and sampled potentially indicating a stacked pegmatite system.
• The Farson Lithium Prospect is located 300m south from Kali Metal’s (ASX:KM1) recently identified Widgiemooltha Project1.
• A further 118 pegmatite samples are awaiting assay across the Company’s tenure with results expected in the coming weeks.

basilio said:

Another High Grade Lithium Update at the Farson prospect.
A general question. WIN has explored and proven the presence of quality nickel, gold, palladium , lithium on its tenements. Does this exploration and proving of resources offer a tangible value to the company ?

High Grade Lithium Discovery at Farson

Highlights

• First assays received delivering high grade lithium samples up to 2.52% Li2O.
• Visible spodumene identified and supported by high grade rock chip assay including;

• 2.52% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0045
• 1.53% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0043
• 1.31% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0044
• 1.28% Li2O Sample ID 24WIN_SS0046

• New search space unlocked with lithium bearing pegmatites hosted within sediments, previously not thought to be prospective.
• Multiple lithium bearing pegmatites mapped and sampled potentially indicating a stacked pegmatite system.
• The Farson Lithium Prospect is located 300m south from Kali Metal’s (ASX:KM1) recently identified Widgiemooltha Project1.
• A further 118 pegmatite samples are awaiting assay across the Company’s tenure with results expected in the coming weeks.

View attachment 170679 High Grade Lithium Discovery at Farson (PDF 1,788.8 KB)

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Does it really matter or will it just simplify the decision of the next Chinese asset purchaser when the company will go belly up and is given away?
Can they mothball the whole lot until nickel becomes profitable?
It is timely to copy this comment from @basilio above, which is grossly representing the views of our inapt current leaders
"
The question we face is
1) Do we want to have our environment degraded by toxic mine processes and sites that are left to poison the wider community ?
2) Do we endorse the view that health, safety and fair pay for mine employees are merely aspirational ?"
We..as who?
Cause "we" got the answer now with nickel price:
nor China, India,Africa or around 7 billions of inhabitants of this planet care about the minimal wage of an Aussie miner on 6 figures making in a year what they will take 2 to 3 decades to earn..a lifetime....
Nor do they care about the CO2 released to make the steel for their house.
They want concrete and mesh houses, not mud ones, and an hospital and school with no roof leaks.
They do not care about Australia net zero and WIN can collapse as a result....

A WIN presentation at a recent Miners Conference. Confident explanation of their resources. Very sobering graph indicating the current oversupply of Nickel and Lithium. They are trying to build their own Nickel Concentrater . Seems to the the best way to make money at the current prices (and better returns if/when prices go up )

It's along shot but I wonder if WIN could find some support from the Federal Government $4B nickel support plan ?

Try nothing, get nothing ..