2004 was a year to buy the dips but now maybe is a time to sell the spikes on the US markets
Its certainly been easier to pick lately from my data, indicators etc
It's been dropping for the last month and a half and looking at the charts, still has a lot further to go. I'm thinking that it will break below the 10,000 mark soon. Maybe by next week.
Medium term (12+ months) I think the Dow is headed down. Short term I'm expecting a modest rise over the next two weeks IN THE ASX. The Dow may not be coming along for the ride judging by the way it's going. Very short term I think up tonight for the Dow but then I don't trade over that short a time frame so haven't put too much effort into that prediction. :goodnight
Who are the people financing the US deficit, what has been suggested will happen in the near future with their exchange rate
And what impact will that have on their holdings?
Will the still be happy to lose money year on year?
Don't you think the tax cuts to the rich have driven some of the earnings there?
I would like to see the earnings of the companies that do most of their business in the US and not a lot overseas, versus the big internationals
I suspect a lot of the overseas co's. have been able to compete because of the lower dollar, if it strengthens against most of the major currencies I suspect earnings will dive
But my major issue is the still high valuations using current earnings NOT projected earnings which all the bulls will use to say the market is undervalued
If you look at historical valuations we are well on the high side
There's also the leverage of the major finance houses in the derivatives market
LTCM failed with leverage about 30 to 1, some these funds were running levearge to assets in the 40 to 1 range, while leverage to equity was over 600 to 1.
I wouldn't be surprized to see the DOW finish the year well under 10000
But we'll see what happens
Anyway here is a one year chart of the DJI
sorry you'll have to cut and paste into browser the hyperlink function doesn't like it
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$indu,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!lb14!lh14,3]&r=5754]
Re: wheres the dow heading today? The fed should be investigated.
There is no evidence that inflation is running rampant. One minute the market is concerned about the economy slowing and no sooner do u get a great result eg the new job figures of 274,000 then they talk about inflationary pressures. It seems that there is not a great deal that makes the market happy. I think the market is being driven by speculators and spread betters. I mean whats with the fed amendment right before the close claiming inflation was "contained". That amendment just before the close changed the entire day. I am surprised that there was no investigation. I thought it was very sus.
Here is a technical view of the Dow ,
and what its been up to ..............YOU BE THE JUDGE !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1ST THE SELL OFF IN APRIL....
PRICE IS NOW CONTAINED ,
IN THIS SIMPLE RISING CHANNEL FORMATION
NEXT THING YOU KNOW
a ( 3 wht soldier candlestick pattern ) has formed .....
HMMMM , What next ? CAN THIS HOLD ?
STAY TUNED ...............
----------------------------------------------------------------------- TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
Tightly contracted bollingers on weekly and monthly charts suggests pressure is building and that a breakout from consolidation is on the horizon. This months price action suggests a strong bias to the upside. The 'expected' Santa Claus rally is likely to support this view.
As usual this is merely my opinion and just like everyone else I'm guessing.
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.