When would you feel safe going back into the market?

[Tyler Durden]

I think the general consensus right now, with all the things happening in Europe, rising unemployment in Australia, and nearing global recession, people are waiting on the sidelines and watching instead of participating in the market.

So if you had to guess, how long would it be until you decided to put more money into the share market?

 

[sptrawler]

The way I see it and I'm no expert just another punter, is select what shares you are interested in.
Then research them and work out a desired entry point, if any of them enter your buy region start picking some up. You won't pick the bottom however if you concentrate on shares that have to be here in 20 years time, you won't go too wrong.
Same goes for property, we are in a period of adjustment and if property overshoots on the down side a buying opportunity may present.
We have ridden the crest of a credit wave for 20 years, it won't be sorted out quickly.
Research is the key, everything normally goes back to the long term average. Which is a reflection of average wages and average company earnings.IMO
So I guess there is no definetive time just buying opportunities.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Because I go in on stocks for roughly between a week and a month, I am happy to get back in at any time the 200 and Ords get to a nice stable level and jump in for a short term buy.

I will admit I am feeling a little bit shakey due to the reasons mentioned in the original post, so I try not to buy when market sentiment is down.

I set short targets so I am in and out in a short period of time. The criteria I set on a technical buy can be a little unreasonable at times, but that's just me. I go on about 80 percent technical 20 percent fundamental with any new events on the horizon.

I will say, that my long term interests are null. I have nothing in the market for the long term, because of the reasons mentioned in the OP exclusively. The time to get in the market for the long term can be taken at any time provided you are investing in a company whos exposure to such conflicts will be minimal.

I'd say that there is a good chance of a market downturn, but when investing in the long term on a very strict set of criteria over the long term waiting years at a time, there is a good chance that the market will turn back as well. I don't believe there is any reason to believe the current crisis off-shore is going to result in a complete world collapse where we get sent back to the dark ages

Forgive the long post - beer.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I think if your an investor, and the market throws up an opportunity to buy a great business at a price that will ensure the returns over time are going to be very good it is a mistake to avoid it just because the market is a bit choppy,

Focus on knowing the values of businesses, and when you get a chance to buy indiviual shares at a price less than what a rational person would pay for the entire businesses, then buy some, if your really worried about flucuations they average in over time.

 

[LostMyShirt]

I think if your an investor, and the market throws up an opportunity to buy a great business at a price that will ensure the returns over time are going to be very good it is a mistake to avoid it just because the market is a bit choppy,

Focus on knowing the values of businesses, and when you get a chance to buy indiviual shares at a price less than what a rational person would pay for the entire businesses, then buy some, if your really worried about flucuations they average in over time.

The only thing that worries me about undertaking such a strategy against the market sentiment is that anything can happen the next day. At times like this, taking buys for the mid term, even thoguh a price may very well be a bargain, tomorrows woes can turn into your fantastic losses.

In the long term where you buy/hold and forget, I wouldn't be that worried as I said before, I don't think we are about to get thrown back into the stone age with a complete world collapse.

 

[Gundini]

So if you had to guess, how long would it be until you decided to put more money into the share market?

How long is a piece of string?

For me it is not about a time frame, more when I think the market has returned to an uptrending market. It doesn't mean the world has solved all the problems, pretty sure they never will solve them, but more when Ben starts up the printing process for QE3 and start flooding the marketplace with ever devalued $$$'s...

When will that be? Don't really know, maybe sometime during 2012, maybe if DOW hits 9000, maybe if one of the PIIGS or FUKUS officially default, who knows for sure?

All I am waiting for at the minute is Gold @ 1400'S or Silver @ 20's and might start picking at a few other commodities shortly.

It has been a long wait but I think the patience will pay off as an investor. I am not a big fan of trading in a downtrending market, would rather go boating and fishing.

 

[Ves]

All I am waiting for at the minute is Gold @ 1400'S or Silver @ 20's and might start picking at a few other commodities shortly.

Wouldn't you be buying into a down-trend in both of those commodities at that level? With no income stream from each of them, what makes you so confident that you will receive capital growth? Sounds like speculation.

 

[odds-on]

I think the general consensus right now, with all the things happening in Europe, rising unemployment in Australia, and nearing global recession, people are waiting on the sidelines and watching instead of participating in the market.

So if you had to guess, how long would it be until you decided to put more money into the share market?

If i had to guess i would say 5-7 years. My plan is to learn as much as i can about investing/gambling so come the next bull market i can make my fortune. Until then i will save and learn.

Cheers

Oddson

 

[Chasero]

How long is a piece of string?

For me it is not about a time frame, more when I think the market has returned to an uptrending market. It doesn't mean the world has solved all the problems, pretty sure they never will solve them, but more when Ben starts up the printing process for QE3 and start flooding the marketplace with ever devalued $$$'s...

When will that be? Don't really know, maybe sometime during 2012, maybe if DOW hits 9000, maybe if one of the PIIGS or FUKUS officially default, who knows for sure?

All I am waiting for at the minute is Gold @ 1400'S or Silver @ 20's and might start picking at a few other commodities shortly.

It has been a long wait but I think the patience will pay off as an investor. I am not a big fan of trading in a downtrending market, would rather go boating and fishing.

If gold hits 1400 long term trend line is broken.

Meaning you are 'picking a bottom' in the hope that it'll bounce.

Very risky.. (though potentially rewarding)

 

[Gundini]

Wouldn't you be buying into a down-trend in both of those commodities at that level? With no income stream from each of them, what makes you so confident that you will receive capital growth? Sounds like speculation.

Haha, no, I don't see Gold or Silver in any downtrend, but in a long term bull market. Just would like to see some sort of base forming from this correction around these levels before they continue on their bullish way.

If gold hits 1400 long term trend line is broken.

Meaning you are 'picking a bottom' in the hope that it'll bounce.

Very risky.. (though potentially rewarding)

Charts are just that, I use them as a guide because most other people do. You can read into a chart anything you want, and everyone looks at different time frames that tell different stories.

I don't see alot of risk here. My opinion is Gold will find a base and continue to head north when the global markets are flooded with cash.

Is there anybody out there who honestly thinks QE3 will not occur in the next 12 months? Kick the ole can a bit further down the road? Can't see any other scenario myself.

 

[Tysonboss1]

The only thing that worries me about undertaking such a strategy against the market sentiment is that anything can happen the next day.

But if you have put the time and effort into developing a true understanding for what makes the business tick, and spent time considering how it will perform given the various possible outcomes ( not shareprice performance, actual business performance) and you have come to the conclusion that it will perform well, why worry about a 10% drop the next day.

Focus on what the business is going to do over time and forget about what the share price is doing, Because the share price movements are unknowable any way in the shorterm, all that you can know with share prices is that eventually they will either rise or fall back to a trading range near it's fair value.

All the troubles facing the global economy given time will pass, Evenutally they will be solved and the best businesses will come therough the other side having contiuned gernating earnings and will contiune to prosper, and those who continued investing and holding a mixed bag a wonderful businesses will do very well,

In my opinion sitting trying to second guess the market, hitting refresh every 3 mins is a big waste of time and it takes you away from learning about businesses and the economy,

Most of the posters in this forum would do better if the spent their day reading a great text on business and investment rather than clicking refresh.

 

[LostMyShirt]

But if you have put the time and effort into developing a true understanding for what makes the business tick, and spent time considering how it will perform given the various possible outcomes ( not shareprice performance, actual business performance) and you have come to the conclusion that it will perform well, why worry about a 10% drop the next day.

Focus on what the business is going to do over time and forget about what the share price is doing, Because the share price movements are unknowable any way in the shorterm, all that you can know with share prices is that eventually they will either rise or fall back to a trading range near it's fair value.

All the troubles facing the global economy given time will pass, Evenutally they will be solved and the best businesses will come therough the other side having contiuned gernating earnings and will contiune to prosper, and those who continued investing and holding a mixed bag a wonderful businesses will do very well,

In my opinion sitting trying to second guess the market, hitting refresh every 3 mins is a big waste of time and it takes you away from learning about businesses and the economy,

Most of the posters in this forum would do better if the spent their day reading a great text on business and investment rather than clicking refresh.

Well that is all true, Tyson. I mst agree with you and mention that your reasoning is very sound. I will however mention that it goes against my current trading style of short-mid term investing which is reliant on T/A 80 percent and F/A 20 percent.

For the long term, I would say your reasoning to be A-1, and is something I am undertaking at this time, though have not found anywhere decent (though I have not looked all that much outside my current system) to park my money for the long term.

I have to give a large "LOL" to the "hitting refresh every 3 minutes" comment, because I do that all the time! Haha. You certainly have a point there.

 

[Struzball]

Interesting question...

When would I feel safe?

Probably when there was 5 years of 20% per year gains when it looks like the good times will never end.
However as history tells us that's not the best time to enter the market long term.

When do I think will be a good time?

When it resumes it's long term up trend, either at these levels in 10 years time, or when the allords is 25% lower this time next year.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Interesting question...

When would I feel safe?

Probably when there was 5 years of 20% per year gains when it looks like the good times will never end.
However as history tells us that's not the best time to enter the market long term.

.

Yeah,

You hit on an important point there.

The vast majority of people make this mistake.

They see long runs of the stock market rising as meaning the stock market is a safe investment where they are sure to make money, right when it is perhaps hitting dangerously high levels and due for a correction.

and conversely, they see the period falling large falls and meaning the market is dangerous and a risky investment, right when companies are trading at the most attractive levels and will no doubt be offering above average returns in the following years.

An interesting fact is that most investors in managed funds actually under perform the long term average return of the fund, Because when the fund offers a bad year of two the pull out their funds, but after one or two years of solid returns they pile their funds in.

 

[Klogg]

I feel safe entering the market at any point (it's dependant on the company really), so long as I invest in a sound business that is 'recession proof' (basically, will survive a recession without too large a hit to its earnings) and isn't too highly leveraged.

On the market as a whole though, I'm a lot more confident putting money in now than I was a year ago...

 

[Gundini]

Might be time to drag this old chestnut back to the forum.

On the bottom is a Gold chart up as well for a bit of fun.

When do you feel safe going back into these markets?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

I haven't bought any stock since earlier this year, when Europe was starting to come into focus again and gold started heading down (I almost exclusively trade gold stocks).

All I do these days is trade indexes, and since it's just as easy to take a short position, the worries in Europe do not worry me so much as give me a great opportunity to make a lot of easy money when markets just drop, drop and drop.


I really don't know when it will be safe to get back in stocks, and I prefer not to be a pioneer in finding out

 

[young-gun]

I really don't know when it will be safe to get back in stocks, and I prefer not to be a pioneer in finding out

lol +1, I just wish I too had the knowledge and more so the confidence to start trading short. ill get there soon enough.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Might be time to drag this old chestnut back to the forum.

On the bottom is a Gold chart up as well for a bit of fun.

When do you feel safe going back into these markets?

If I'm not mistaken your chart of the XAO shows a broad head and shoulders pattern from mid 2009 up to now, with the trace about to drop off the RH shoulder. Note what happened between mid 2007-mid 2008 with the narrow head and shoulder pattern... erk.

Is it safe?

My tip - look out beloooowwwww.....

 

[StumpyPhantom]

If I'm not mistaken your chart of the XAO shows a broad head and shoulders pattern from mid 2009 up to now, with the trace about to drop off the RH shoulder. Note what happened between mid 2007-mid 2008 with the narrow head and shoulder pattern... erk.

Is it safe?

My tip - look out beloooowwwww.....

Yeah - I tend to agree - the new low won't be apparent until after it's climbed about 10% above it.

And given the US and China seems to be heading down, this might end up lower than March 2009.