When do YOU sell?

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

okay i realise that everyone has their own selling system and what not...
for those who are willing to share I was just curious.
at what point do you sell?
-do you reach a certain percentage? (and if so .. what percentage?)
-certain price?
-certain point on a chart?

i'm just asking... i've got a stock that i think i'll sell, and hopefully when it returns to a more orderly oscillation i'll do ssomething else.

but it's sitting at around 30%+ so yeah hence my thought to sell..

just a simple question ( which i realise may not have simple answers)

burglar · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
okay i realise that everyone has their own selling system and what not...
for those who are willing to share I was just curious.
at what point do you sell?
-do you reach a certain percentage? (and if so .. what percentage?)
-certain price?
-certain point on a chart?

i'm just asking... i've got a stock that i think i'll sell, and hopefully when it returns to a more orderly oscillation i'll do ssomething else.

but it's sitting at around 30%+ so yeah hence my thought to sell..

just a simple question ( which i realise may not have simple answers)

I first asked this question of my mentor a decade ago!
He said that shares would regularly double before the days of laptops and day-traders.
What does it do since? He said maybe 40% with increased volatility!
Rene Rivkin said if a share hasn't done what you want within 6 weeks, you've picked the wrong one!
Further to this, if you compound 41.2% twice you get doubling.
Hope this helps!?

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

burglar said:
I first asked this question of my mentor a decade ago!
He said that shares would regularly double before the days of laptops and day-traders.
What does it do since? He said maybe 40% with increased volatility!
Rene Rivkin said if a share hasn't done what you want within 6 weeks, you've picked the wrong one!
Further to this, if you compound 41.2% twice you get doubling.
Hope this helps!?

that is an interesting point... 2 x 20% jumps would earn more than 1 40% wouldn't it because you re-enter with more money.

but yeah basically the way i see it (through these bright naive eyes ) is that.... regular profits of 10-15% is better than a 40% that takes a couple of months ..... right?
(lol i love posting these little theories i have in my head... i always have a little fear inside that says "you're totally going to get smacked for asking that" haha:

burglar · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
that is an interesting point... 2 x 20% jumps would earn more than 1 40% wouldn't it because you re-enter with more money.

but yeah basically the way i see it (through these bright naive eyes ) is that.... regular profits of 10-15% is better than a 40% that takes a couple of months ..... right?
(lol i love posting these little theories i have in my head... i always have a little fear inside that says "you're totally going to get smacked for asking that" haha:

in real life you may get a smack but here, ...
You are anonymous, hiding behind an avatar!

Tysonboss1 · 17 February 2011

I sell a share for three main reasons,

1, Somthing changes at the company that impacts it's ability to generate cash in a negative way.

2, Speculation from other investors pushes the price well above what I believe to be fair value making the stock dangerously high and due for a correction.

3, I have to sell somthing thats done it's job to free up cash for a new better opportunity

Gringotts Bank · 17 February 2011

What's the stock?

Tysonboss1 · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
but yeah basically the way i see it (through these bright naive eyes ) is that.... regular profits of 10-15% is better than a 40% that takes a couple of months ..... :

Warren Buffet made billions on a compounded return of 23% per year, So a 40% gain that takes a couple of months should not be seen as tying your capital up to long.

The main thing is to never have any big loses, you can accumulate enormous amounts of money earning 10 - 15% per year so long as you don't suffer any terrible loses.

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

Gringotts Bank said:
What's the stock?

CBA

Tysonboss1 said:
Warren Buffet made billions on a compounded return of 23% per year, So a 40% gain that takes a couple of months should not be seen as tying your capital up to long.

The main thing is to never have any big loses, you can accumulate enormous amounts of money earning 10 - 15% per year so long as you don't suffer any terrible loses.

excuse the stupid question .. i know what compounded means when it comes to interest... so for that statement you mean that he gained 23% every year which he no doubt reinvested... and then ended up with billions?

burglar · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
... you mean that he gained 23% every year which he no doubt reinvested... and then ended up with billions?

Warren Buffett is currently the second richest man in the world behind a Mexican Drug Lord!

You could Youtube then search for Warren Buffett, I would suggest it is mildly entertaining and very illuminating.

burglar · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
CBA ...

So your fundamental is the bounce in financial sector, post GFC I

Where do you see it going?

Tysonboss1 · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
CBA

excuse the stupid question .. i know what compounded means when it comes to interest... so for that statement you mean that he gained 23% every year which he no doubt reinvested... and then ended up with billions?

yes, thats right and with very little "trading" and zero "Day Trading", He is a value investor.

Tysonboss1 · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
okay i realise that everyone has their own selling system and what not...
for those who are willing to share I was just curious.
at what point do you sell?
-do you reach a certain percentage? (and if so .. what percentage?)
-certain price?
-certain point on a chart?

i'm just asking... i've got a stock that i think i'll sell, and hopefully when it returns to a more orderly oscillation i'll do ssomething else.

but it's sitting at around 30%+ so yeah hence my thought to sell..

just a simple question ( which i realise may not have simple answers)

Are you an investor or a trader

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

sorry guys... all these questions coming at me like i actually know something..

Trader or an investor...
i guess i'm neither tbh i'm just flat out clueless.

it depends i suppose i mean i'm definitely not a day trader... and most of my stocks i have held for quite some time. But ultimately I would honestly say I'm neither, I'm assuming the main difference between the two would be the time scale that they hold their stocks for. If that's the case then atm i'm an investor... but then i also hope that i'll do more than 1 trade a year (especially seeing as my portfolio is small atm)

"So your fundamental is the bounce in financial sector, post GFC I"

i don't know what fundamental means in this context sorry (still working my way through the terminology here..) but i'm guessing you're saying that I'm ... using the up and downing of the banks to make money during the period? In that case I would .. suppose so. As for where I think CBA's going? I reckon (for what that's worth based on my tiny knowledge of charts) that it's nearing resistance at this point. So I'm trying to sell it now at a level that I'm happy with the profits. (i hope that was a good answer)

another question for you guys. I've never been checking my stocks constantly when the market closed and i noticed something rather odd.
I was looking at the quote for CBA on commsec keeping an eye on the prices cos it was nearing my sell point
sell was roughly 53.93 and buy was 53.92
and after the market closed all of a sudden i noticed that the buy price was 56 all of a sudden .. (it's since .. changed back to 53.something)
sorry my question is all over the place but just wondering what I saw that's all

thanks.

Tysonboss1 · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
sorry guys... all these questions coming at me like i actually know something..

Trader or an investor...
i guess i'm neither tbh i'm just flat out clueless.

.

Oh Dear,

So what sort of analysis to you conduct to determine which stocks you should buy and and what price.

The main difference between an investor and a trader is that a trader looks to other people to generate the profit by buying somthing and hoping in a relatively short time frame he can sell that same thing for a higher price.

Where as an investor looks to the asset it's self generate the return, A true investor goes about investing in a single stock just as they would go about buying the whole company.

burglar · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
sorry guys... all these questions coming at me like i actually know something..

Trader or an investor...
i guess i'm neither tbh i'm just flat out clueless.

"Baby steps" .... read that somewhere ... great, isn't it .... I LIKE IT!
You are in a beginners forum no need to admit to anything!

ChaoSI said:
"So your fundamental is the bounce in financial sector, post GFC I"

i don't know what fundamental means in this context sorry (still working my way through the terminology here..) but i'm guessing you're saying that I'm ... using the up and downing of the banks to make money during the period? In that case I would .. suppose so. As for where I think CBA's going? I reckon (for what that's worth based on my tiny knowledge of charts) that it's nearing resistance at this point. So I'm trying to sell it now at a level that I'm happy with the profits. (i hope that was a good answer)

thanks.

It was a good answer but not the only answer
Quoting Tysonboss1 from a previous post.
√ "Speculation from other investors pushes the price well above what I believe to be fair value"

I don't know what is fair value for CBA, but I would want to know if I was holding or selling.

My fundamental is the Chinese fuelled commodity boom. In particular, anything associated with stainless steel e.g. nickel, manganese, iron ore, molybdenum etc.

Energy is another wonderful "Fundamental" !

Cheers,
burglar

Gringotts Bank · 17 February 2011

ChaoSI said:
but it's sitting at around 30%+ so yeah hence my thought to sell..

What you're saying is that you feel it's lost momentum, and that might be a good reason to sell. Losing momentum is a very good reason to sell. What you're really wanting to know is the future, which is unknowable, so you have to guess somehow.

ie. If I sell now, will it go up and I miss out on gains?
or If I hold on, will it remain at +30% for another 5 years (lost opportunity).

So all you need to do is try to predict what will happen in the future. What do you think?

ROE · 17 February 2011

This is the only time I sell stocks that I hold as long term investment

1. When I realise I made a mistake, I get out even at a loss

2. The stock no longer stack up to my expectation (management, balance sheet etc..)

3. When a better opportunity arise and I need the fund for it

4. When I need the money for worthwhile causes
(buying a new car or holiday isn't one of those,paying for my kids degree would be...)

5. I rarely sell because it gone up 100% or 500% ...CCP gone up 500% and I haven't sold....CCV up 100% still no sale but buy more...

I do trading here and there and these trading stocks as soon as I think I have enough profit I get out (could be a week, a day or a month) but that only 10-20% of my portfolio...

GFC hasnt change anything for me regarding whether I should time the market and get in/out still compounding nicely at 15% a year.

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

well.. analysis... hmm.. lessee.. well i've had the stock for 3 years already (bought it when the gfc just happened so i got it cheeeep
so, I guess i'm an investor i hold middle term? though i've decided that i wanna keep a better eye on stocks that might show an orderly pattern... can't hurt i figure

ChaoSI · 17 February 2011

Gringotts Bank said:
What you're saying is that you feel it's lost momentum, and that might be a good reason to sell. Losing momentum is a very good reason to sell. What you're really wanting to know is the future, which is unknowable, so you have to guess somehow.

ie. If I sell now, will it go up and I miss out on gains?
or If I hold on, will it remain at +30% for another 5 years (lost opportunity).

So all you need to do is try to predict what will happen in the future. What do you think?

hahaha is that all i have to do? well.. THANKFULLY i can do that so PHEW!

um... i think that even if it hasn't lost momentum it will max out soonish, but i don't know when, and i think it'll head back down soon, so i'll cash in my fortune (such as it is) and when it returns to a level i'm happy with i'll use the extra money to reinvest again.

that's just a feeling and yes i know that you research gurus are gasping in horror and disgust but that's just the way i think..... i would usually hold out for more but i find that i always hold too long and am too greedy so this time even if i miss out on a couple more dollars i'll decide to take my profits now.

ROE said:
This is the only time I sell stocks that I hold as long term investment

1. When I realise I made a mistake, I get out even at a loss

2. The stock no longer stack up to my expectation (management, balance sheet etc..)

3. When a better opportunity arise and I need the fund for it

4. When I need the money for worthwhile causes
(buying a new car or holiday isn't one of those,paying for my kids degree would be...)

5. I rarely sell because it gone up 100% or 500% ...CCP gone up 500% and I haven't sold....CCV up 100% still no sale but buy more...

I do trading here and there and these trading stocks as soon as I think I have enough profit I get out (could be a week, a day or a month) but that only 10-20% of my portfolio...

GFC hasnt change anything for me regarding whether I should time the market and get in/out still compounding nicely at 15% a year.

that's... an interesting way of things..

i've noticed a lot of you big players here have much deeper pockets... much like a trenchcoat...
whereas i'd be closer to a pair of boardies....

VSntchr · 17 February 2011

ROE said:
GFC hasnt change anything for me regarding whether I should time the market and get in/out still compounding nicely at 15% a year.

With CCV, FGE and CCP your going to be able to book in a lot more than 15% for FY11 ROE

Its the big gains like this that allow value investors to be patient...who knows, the next few months may involve sitting on cash until an opportunity arises..but because of these big gains...the average return over a number of years is sure to be pleasing!

When do YOU sell?

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