When can uranium hopefuls produce?

[mmmmining]

Since people are becoming spooked by 10+ year uranium project development timeframe, I started a new thread to guesstimate which year that a company listed on ASX can produce uranium. Existing producers excluded.

I guess:

UKL: in 2009
CMR: in 2010
PNN: in 2011

 

[Sean K]

Perhaps it would be handy if each stock had a short summary of what stage of development it was in as well?

eg,

SMM: Measured JORC 59m lbs, 50:50 JV PDN, PFS, Nil BFS, Mt Isa, QLD, 2010-12.
AGS: Initial JORC pending, 25% free carried Quasar/Heathgate, 8ks from Beverley, SA, 2011.

Maybe then they could more adequately critiqued??

 

[mmmmining]

Agree, otherwise, can be a kind of ramping, or so..

UKL, With JORC resources ato Apex Lowboy in Nevada. Heap leaching the low grade ore around an historical mine, target 300t/yr with contract mining. With 2 years preparation, very likely have production in 2009;

CMR, with JORC resources, and scope study, and in NT, and existing copper oxide plant. Three years will get one of the deposit mined. so in 2010;

PNN, with BFS 20+years ago, and scope study last year when uranium is at the $45. Now at $91, BFS should be passed. of course, labor party change police, or liberal/national takeover the state government is required. By 2011, it should be ready for production.

 

[Halba]

Do you hold those MMining?

Another one in the USA like UKL is BLR.

Stage: confirming 25-30 million pound historical resource at Taylor ranch. Putting the JORC's together and potentially ISL'able.

 

[mmmmining]

Do you hold those MMining?

You know me, what I have and I don't have, and how many shares is not for public. Why you ask this question if you think I am not ramper?

What is your guess? There are still over one hundred stocks you can work out a production year.

I am sick of some clueless analysts try to fool people that all uranium hopeful needs 10+ year to get production.

This is one way we can calm down people's fear, getting to the bottom of the truth.

 

[Sean K]

Do you hold those MMining?

Another one in the USA like UKL is BLR.

Stage: confirming 25-30 million pound historical resource at Taylor ranch. Putting the JORC's together and potentially ISL'able.

Halba, this isn't the point of the thread. If you want to list another stock and give a time frame to production, fill your boots.

 

[nizar]

I agree with 2009 for UKL.
Near term production potential.
JORC resources in politically stable countries (USA, Mexico) - much less soverign risk than, say, Africa.
Market cap at about $40million is a bit of a joke.
Showing a bit of momentum lately.

Disc: i took a position today, $1.10 the previous high looks to be new support.

In my opinion only.

 

[nizar]

Perhaps it would be handy if each stock had a short summary of what stage of development it was in as well?

eg,

SMM: Measured JORC 59m lbs, 50:50 JV PDN, PFS, Nil BFS, Mt Isa, QLD, 2010-12.
AGS: Initial JORC pending, 25% free carried Quasar/Heathgate, 8ks from Beverley, SA, 2011.

Maybe then they could more adequately critiqued??

Interesting how you mention the two stocks that you hold.
AGS not even a JORC yet and market cap north of $400mil alot of potential there, but in terms of production its much too early to call.

2011 is a fair estimate i would say.

 

[mmmmining]

Another one is EQN, which is more a copper play, and a bit of CO as well.

EQN has a BFS several years ago when uranium price is $11/lb as viable by-products. No matter what, they will mine it. It is a matter of priority and profit margin to decide when the are going to process it. I guess 2010 will be the reasonable time because they need to get the copper things up and running smoothly. So EQN 2010

MTN, might be on 2012. I hope PDN will take it over so it can be the developed with PDN's expertise. The chance will increase if SMM reject PDN.

It has considerable resource and simple metallurgical process. I guess it will take sometime and a lot of money for them to get all approval. Again it depends on labor flip policy or flop the state government.

For MTN I believe it need a stronger support to get the approval things through quickly. PDN, or heavy Chinese involvement will be the short-cut.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I agree with 2009 for UKL.
Near term production potential.
JORC resources in politically stable countries (USA, Mexico) - much less soverign risk than, say, Africa.
Market cap at about $40million is a bit of a joke.
Showing a bit of momentum lately.

Disc: i took a position today, $1.10 the previous high looks to be new support.

In my opinion only.

Niz just so you know UKL has 85m shares on issue
So at closing price of $1.30 it had a mkt cap of $110m

 

[mmmmining]

Niz just so you know UKL has 85m shares on issue
So at closing price of $1.30 it had a mkt cap of $110m

YT, you are right, 86.1m share after today, plus 2.15m options at 20c, with 84m not released for trading.

The tradeable share is only 28.5m+2.1m today.

According to a SS forum (someone posted a research report), Warwick Girgor has a tick up on this one for potential near-term producer. So it should be valued on DCF basis, or a multiple of EBIT, or so, which might come up a $1.50 something for the Nevada deposit only.

UKL still has the New Mexico's deposit.

 

[56gsa]

CUY has suggested a different approach to the production question...

announced 14-feb they are going to trial a treatment plant that could be scaled up to 40tpa -- thats only about $10m at US$85/lb. They can field test in situ leach but not sell product, They say they have $70m now of U (implies 292t of U) altho no JORC yet, but they also say it could be ten times higher, ie 2920t of U

 

[Halba]

UKL looks overvalued for only 6 mil pounds jorc (in the inferred category). I wouldn't value it as a near term producer, as the production /mine life/reserves look very low. Also mngmt is unproven.

 

[hangseng]

UKL looks overvalued for only 6 mil pounds jorc (in the inferred category). I wouldn't value it as a near term producer, as the production /mine life/reserves look very low. Also mngmt is unproven.

Howard Dawson is honest, capable, experienced and proven both as a Geo and Analyst. He knows exactly what he is doing. Wasn't a bad footy player either.

 

[Halba]

What about the small reserves at Apex- 1.5million pounds. Surely it can't be valued like paladin- the reserve life is low. Its almost laughable that UKL's mkt cap is almost up to MTN's mkt cap(MTN has 80million pounds), UKL has 1.5 producable.

 

[mmmmining]

What about the small reserves at Apex- 1.5million pounds. Surely it can't be valued like paladin- the reserve life is low. Its almost laughable that UKL's mkt cap is almost up to MTN's mkt cap(MTN has 80million pounds), UKL has 1.5 producable.

Can we focus on the topics, not get sidetracked. We are not talking about which one is overvalued, or undervalued. We just try to guesstimate a production year.

Here I come up with another one. WHE 2010.

According to the presentation, they want to get the Bison Basin project into production in 2010. Currently they are doing resource definition and JORC to be finished by the end of this year. And Feasibility study by end of 2008.

 

[Sean K]

Interesting how you mention the two stocks that you hold.
AGS not even a JORC yet and market cap north of $400mil alot of potential there, but in terms of production its much too early to call.

2011 is a fair estimate i would say.

Actually, I sold them a while ago. Check Blog. Thanks for the compliment.

 

[insider]

Just a thought... Even if the three mines policy is lifted in April don't you think Labor would make it hard for Liberal to open new mines? So maybe voting for Labor this Election would be better? What do yous think... It's a fork in the road

 

[mmmmining]

Believe it or not, TOE might be a serious producer well ahead of AGS, BMN, MTN, SMM, EME, EXT. Although have not found a gram of uranium by itself.

The purchase of DYL's Nappberby deposit help TOE jump the ranks. I predict it for 2010 production.

 

[Sean K]

Believe it or not, TOE might be a serious producer well ahead of AGS, BMN, MTN, SMM, EME, EXT. Although have not found a gram of uranium by itself.

The purchase of DYL's Nappberby deposit help TOE jump the ranks. I predict it for 2010 production.

What stage is this at, mmmmming? JORC, close to infrastructure, workforce??....NT is good.

2010 seems to be the first anyone can mine in Australia to me. Going to be interesting to see what happens to the sport price when all these extra mines are on the go by 2012 ish.