Wheat

Friday 3rd September or Monday 6th September will be a very important turning point in Wheat . At this point in time I cannot accurately quantify whether wheat will trade into a Seasonal Top or whether price will pullback into a counter trend low before resumption of uptrend . The Time Cycles indicate the probability of a Low into the 3rd September but at this point in time I am fairly neutral on any outcome . Hopefully a few days beforehand I will be in a better position on Geometric Angles and price to determine a Seasonal Top or Bottom . Regards Robert

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I don't normally chart wheat, but based on the Ichimoku chart it could have the possibility to move down to test Chikou/Kumo-Senkou A supports circa 600. (674.50 is also a Chikou potential support point which is being tested at the moment, but that may not hold).

798 price will be important if Wheat Tops into Monday 6th September.

Wheat crop in Australia is breaking all records at the moment. On top of that it actually getting harvested as well. It seems the recent rains didn't overley affect the crop.

Hopefully good news in terms of export markets and local supply. Also good of course for Grain Corp.

basilio said:

Wheat crop in Australia is breaking all records at the moment. On top of that it actually getting harvested as well. It seems the recent rains didn't overley affect the crop.

Hopefully good news in terms of export markets and local supply. Also good of course for Grain Corp.

Record-breaking day for GrainCorp as silos burst at seams during bumper harvest

More than 360,000 tonnes of grain are delivered to GrainCorp sites across Australia in one day, taking the total haul to more than 5 million tonnes since the winter harvest began.

www.abc.net.au

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Volume is a big earner for Grain Handlers, storage & handling charges is what form the basis for good financial results. Trading is really only the icing on the cake and can easily incur big losses.

https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/6554576/cbh-posts-297-million-loss/


Nonetheless very good economically for some rural communities that have done it tough over the last couple of years

Could someone please help me with a few questions regarding trading Wheat . I am just starting to look into the Commodity markets which has been way overdue and just tinkering with a few charts and Cycle Analysis. It looks like the initial margin is around 3375US per contract and would maintenance margin be required on top of this if I was trading through a broker ?
I am considering using a broker to place the trades for me with the main aspect being that I can hopefully set a stop loss with him and he can close the trade as per my trade plan which will be given to him in advance and he can suggest the best contract to trade. So it's more reassurance that I can have someone to work the stop overnight whilst I'm sleeping . Waking up every hour will be disruptive and having to pay for that peace of mind is a price I am content to pay. Modern trading platforms would probably have this function but it could be problematic if I automatically set a stop on the computer and the market opens significantly lower than my stop the computer may not execute it or the platform may crash etc so paying a bit extra for a broker is acceptable . Also does anyone know of an agricultural website that has a crop report calendar so I could just have a glance at what is coming up and be aware of important dates ?
Have recently gone back to doing some hand charting and preparing some Market Curves .
But in addition to this I will have to obtain some commodity data . I know that Gann preferred charting using Cash prices and I wonder if I could get Cash prices or is this data too illiquid and sketchy . Not sure how liquid the cash market is and whether I could obtain these figures to construct some charts or whether I just go with the normal futures data . Recently I put out a forecast calling Top on Wheat for August 5th with forecast issued on July 31st with current price down almost 30 points .

Our emergency year's supply of pasta and wholemeal flour has been a better investment than our gold and silver.

Should have bought a couple of 40-ft containers worth.

noirua said:

wheat price over 40 Years

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And that bears out what I read the other week:

"One theme I have been harping on in my newsletters is that commodities tend to make V tops, and stocks tend to make V bottoms. But when stocks top, they make big, rounded U tops, and when commodities bottom, they make big, rounded U bottoms (the oil bottom in 2020 is the exception, where prices went negative).

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"We’re seeing a lot of V tops in commodities, and correspondingly, we’re going to see a V bottom in stocks..."

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Jarad Dillian

when i saw silver premiums climbing .. a while back yes i grabbed some extra pasta , rice , salt and some other consumables that have a long shelf life ( not trusting my life on continuous electricity supply either )

nothing like even a a car-ful ( boot-ful ) but more than the usual 'safety net' to be sure

stock-wise i bought into RFF a fair while back , D2O about a year back and SGLLV in the last six months , could be very interesting times coming

divs4ever said:

stock-wise i bought into RFF a fair while back , D2O about a year back and SGLLV in the last six months , could be very interesting times coming

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Rff has been downhill for months, i had a substantial portfolio..i gave up with investor psyche

not down enough for me to add more

but down for sure

i participate in the DRP so the lower share price ( if divs. don't drop too drastically ) is kind of a sweet sorrow



given how some other stocks i held ( for div. income ) have been doing in the last two years ( cutting or suspending divs. ) RFF is still doing something right to keep me on board

BTW farming agriculture is a strange business vicious cycles sometimes a long time to break even , and always a disaster ( fire , flood , drought , storm ) lurking in the future

however i bet there are some ELD veterans here who will enlighten on the dangers of going HEAVY in the agricultural sector

my av. SP is just over $1.58 and i bought in during 2016 and those 3 monthly DRP shares have help the core holding grow as well

so am not not unhappy with them ( but not dumbstruck with amazement either )

ASIC accuses COFCO of manipulating wheat futures market​

By Glenn Dyer |

The markets regulator, ASIC, has launched civil legal action against subsidiaries of COFCO, China’s biggest food processor and manufacturer, alleging they "manipulated the ASX24 market for Eastern Australia Wheat futures January 2023 contracts.”
(COFCO Group is China's largest food processor, manufacturer, and trader. It is also one of Asia's leading agribusiness groups. Its headquarters are in the COFCO Fortune Plaza in Chaoyang District in Beijing. Its owner is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, China’s highest day-to-day administrative body.)

The civil penalty legal action was launched in the Federal Court by ASIC on Wednesday against two COFCO groups: COFCO International Australia Pty Ltd and COFCO Resources SA.
ASIC alleges
"COFCO manipulated contracts on 34 occasions between 17 January 2022 and 3 March 2022, placing orders shortly before the close of the day session of the ASX24 for the improper purpose of affecting the daily settlement price for the WMF3 contract." This conduct is commonly referred to as ‘marking the close’.
ASIC alleges that these orders had the effect of:

• causing the price for WMF3 contracts to not reflect the forces of genuine supply and demand in an open, informed, and efficient market, and
• creating artificial prices for WMF3 contracts on the ASX24.
• ASIC Chair Joe Longo said in Thursday’s statement, "ASIC is committed to responding to market manipulation in energy and commodities markets. This conduct is illegal; it erodes trust and confidence in our markets, increases costs for participants, hurts farmers, food manufacturers, importers and exporters, and impacts the prices Australians pay at the checkout.

"We allege these companies engaged in a repeated pattern of manipulation to benefit themselves to the detriment of other participants in the market."

ASIC is seeking declarations and pecuniary penalties against both COFCO International Australia Pty Ltd and COFCO Resources SA. The matter will be listed for a case management hearing on a date to be fixed by the Court.