What will happen tomorrow? (1/3/07)

[The Mint Man]

So what do all you ASFers think will happen tomorrow?
with the nikkei down 605 and hang seng down 627 atm, I think this will give the FTSE and dow a negative lead again.... and then onto us, the ASX.
Do you think we could see another fall like today's?
I think we may well see kennas's 5700 prediction (from realist's thread) reached if we see the FTSE and dow panic.

cheers

 

[powerkoala]

well, i still think XAO will touch 5600 area before heading north again.
but hopefully i am wrong though.
don't want to enter until dust goes away.

 

[CanOz]

So what do all you ASFers think will happen tomorrow?
with the nikkei down 605 and hang seng down 627 atm, I think this will give the FTSE and dow a negative lead again.... and then onto us, the ASX.
Do you think we could see another fall like today's?
I think we may well see kennas's 5700 prediction (from realist's thread) reached if we see the FTSE and dow panic.

cheers

I think Kennas was looking for more like...5400....and i think he may be right. It may take a few days to get there, or even weeks. But i refuse to believe that after a few funds unwind thier long positions we'll be in this territory again for a while.

I say a three wave corrective move, bouncing on 5600 before finally being absorbed at 5400...big call though.

No doubt Nick will have something on his site tonite that will be far more reliable.

Cheers,

 

[stoxclimber]

I think the all ords will go up tomorrow.

 

[Fab]

I am hoping for some consolidation around 5800

 

[doctorj]

I think the all ords will go up tomorrow.

Might be right... last I looked Shanghai was up 1.7% in the afternoon session. That said, MBL's afternoon performance looked ominous.

 

[chris1983]

Might be right... last I looked Shanghai was up 1.7% in the afternoon session. That said, MBL's afternoon performance looked ominous.

Up 2.13% Now and the shanghai index's fall is the main reason for all of the fus. The DOW will have a strong day ahead and we should bounce strongly tomorrow.

 

[Prospector]

This is what seems to have triggered the Shanghai fall.......

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/chinese-whispers-35b-wipeout/2007/02/28/1172338660892.html

ie - rumours of a 20% CGT in China. These rumours have now been dispelled so time will tell. The same article says the US just got themselves in a panic and off it went!

 

[doctorj]

Futures telling us anything?

 

[Sean K]

Might depend on what sort of 'rumours' are spread tonight. Can you believe that all this was over a rumour? Market was just looking for an excuse I reckon. Whatever happens, I'd just like a little stability. Gold can keep going up if it likes though.

China Tanks And The World Follows Suit
FN Arena News - February 28 2007

By Greg Peel

A rumour began in China yesterday that the Chinese government would intensify its austerity measures intended to crimp a raging economy by introducing a capital gains tax. The Shanghai index fell 8.8% from its record high the day before – the biggest single day fall since the death of Deng Xiaoping in 1997.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Every chance today was just a sucker rally but it was apparently clear that Liquidity was their to soak up value. Tommorow might test support again....the bears could have a win?.

The opportunities were their to trade the swings today or trade into volume in the ARVO out of positions. Personally the current stocks in my trading portfolio bounced strongly and closed well on top of my initial recent entry's. Only sold one today SMY and picked up IRN and MRE off the depth on weakness....happy with that.

Sadly the only losers were the ones out in the panic, caught up in the hype and oblivious to the liquidty in the market that was all too willing to sponge them up.

I think the willingness of money to enter the marketplace will remain for a while yet, although it will certainly be a PANIC when it exits/volume dry's up and momentum swings. Plenty of willing negativity out their to fuel the fire at any sign of a swing (just look at the rabid posting o/nite on ASF).......theyve been slogged over recent times and their time will come. Today they got slogged again , here's hoping the same for tommorow

 

[peterthomas]

Im thinking as long as the Shanghai Market is up at close we should see a slightly better day tommorow (im not experienced enough to put a value on it), but all media consensus (i.e abc news ect) has been to calm investers, with most featured analysists saying dont panic.

im not going to trade till a clearer and stable direction has formed. And as for my current trades im holding and seeing what will happen instead of trying to predict in this current situation. (not including my BSL buywrite which will be exercised tommorow with nice profit)

 

[hitmanlam]

Interesting read. This guy reckons 5600.

 

[nizar]

Up 2.13% Now and the shanghai index's fall is the main reason for all of the fus. The DOW will have a strong day ahead and we should bounce strongly tomorrow.

If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?

China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.

And its healthy for the market to have a correction once in a while maybe 8-10% off the XJO, before we are back into the strong uptrend.

 

[nizar]

Only sold one today SMY and picked up IRN and MRE off the depth on weakness....happy with that.

SMY a real quality stock that one... Takeover soon?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

SMY a real quality stock that one... Takeover soon?

SMY is indeed a quality stock Nizar.........at least it was for me at $1.20 .
Certainly not as valuable as IRN at 60c though......each to their own.

 

[Bush Trader]

Every chance today was just a sucker rally but it was apparently clear that Liquidity was their to soak up value. Tommorow might test support again....the bears could have a win?.


I think the willingness of money to enter the marketplace will remain for a while yet, although it will certainly be a PANIC when it exits/volume dry's up and momentum swings. Plenty of willing negativity out their to fuel the fire at any sign of a swing (just look at the rabid posting o/nite on ASF).......theyve been slogged over recent times and their time will come. Today they got slogged again , here's hoping the same for tommorow

Im in total agreement wetsiut. I believe the prefered trem fro sucker ralley is "dead cat bounce." It would be interesting to know how much "tax advantaged" self managed super as well as fund contributions entered the market from the sidelines today, biding their time for the correction that everyone believed would happen before May - hence the liquidity. Margin loans may not have got hot yet and caused forced selling, mabey only for the hard core bulls. I did nothing today, I learned a hard lesson last year jumping in too early with leveraged trades. I hope I have truly missed an oportunity however I think there is worse to come, and I've never been a bear or taken a short position in my life.

Good Luck


Cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

Might depend on what sort of 'rumours' are spread tonight. Can you believe that all this was over a rumour? Market was just looking for an excuse I reckon. Whatever happens, I'd just like a little stability. Gold can keep going up if it likes though.

If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?

China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.

And its healthy for the market to have a correction once in a while maybe 8-10% off the XJO, before we are back into the strong uptrend.

I am in total agreeance with these opinions. I think we will continue to see a bear campaign on the resource stocks for the next few weeks, especially the speccie U stocks. But it's also going to be on a case by case basis. I don't think nicklers will tank for instance, but those that follow the copper price especially might.

I'm going to look for opportunities in the biotech sector because they have little exposure to the china markets, and the stocks in this sector that I follow, held up brilliantly today. Same with the gas stocks which are exposed mainly internally to Australia.

Also the financial sector may take the lead of the US finance sector. But resource stocks and financials dominate the ASX so the trend will be down overall in the near term.

Really only going to be looking seriously at biotechs and gas plays for the next few weeks.

But really, this is just going to be an excuse to get rid of the go nowhere (mainly) U stocks that have attracted so much stupid money. Just look for stuff that people can't do without.

But yes, biotech to bounce, and keep an eye on the gas sector...

 

[purple]

fall a bit more i suppose..

herd mentality still strong...everyone is still watching everyone else.



although I want it to be the exact opposite!

 

[professor_frink]

I reckon we'll be up.

Dow futures currently up 95, S&P up 11. Still a long way to go before They open but
If Europe doesn't overreact to the downside, then there could be a bit of a short squeeze tonight.