This is an Associated Press article
Greenspan: Odds Rising for a Recession
Thursday December 13, 7:00 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Greenspan: Odds of a Recessions Are Rising, Economic Growth Is Getting Close to 'Stall Speed'
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says the odds the U.S. will fall into a recession are "clearly rising" and he
believes economic growth is "getting close to stall speed."
Greenspan, who ran the central bank for 18 1/2 years, until early 2006, offered his views on the economy in an interview on NPR News' Morning Edition
that will air on Friday. Excerpts of the interview were released on Thursday.
A severe slump in the housing market, a stubborn credit crisis and turbulence on Wall Street are endangering the country's economic health. Growth in
the current October through December period is expected to have slowed to a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent, or less.
Economists, including Greenspan, have warned that the chances of a recession are growing.
Asked whether the economy will tip into a recession -- something that has not happened since 2001 -- Greenspan said, "It's too soon to say, but the
odds are clearly rising."
He said he felt this way because of the slowing pace of growth. "We are getting close to stall speed," he said. "We are far more vulnerable at levels
where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise," he added. "Indeed, it's like someone who has an immune system that's not working very well is
subject to all sorts of diseases and the economy at this lever of growth is subject to all sorts of shocks."
Greenspan's remarks come just days after the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Ben Bernanke, sliced a key interest rate for a third time this year to
prevent the housing and credit troubles from sinking the economy.
The situation poses the biggest challenge yet to Bernanke since succeeding Greenspan in February 2006.
Some analysts have questioned whether Bernanke waited too long to cut the Fed's key rate and whether he has acted aggressively enough to soothe
the economy's woes. The Fed initially dropped its key rate in September, the first reduction in four years. That was followed up by additional rate cuts in
late October and then again on Tuesday.
Greenspan again rejected criticism that his policy actions helped to feed a housing boom that eventually went bust. Critics say Greenspan held interest
rates too low for too long after the 2001 recession.
To have prevented such euphoria in housing that fed a bubble in prices, Greenspan said the Fed would have had to jack up interest rates so high that it
would have damaged the economy. "That would have broken the back of the economy, and brought the housing boom down," Greenspan said.
MIDDAY NEWS
Resources all
Australia, Japan Money Rates Rise on Credit Crunch (Update1)
By Chris Young
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Australian money-market rates climbed to the highest since 1996 and Japanese rates held near a 12-year high, indicating a cash injection by global central banks this week has failed to revive confidence in lending.
Australia's one-month bank bill swap rate jumped 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 7.37 percent as of 5:54 p.m. in Sydney, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The cost to borrow Japanese yen for three months this week reached the highest since 1995 on speculation the credit squeeze will last into 2008.
Money market rates have risen in Australia since Dec. 12, when central banks in the U.S., Canada and Europe agreed to coordinate efforts to promote lending as credit market losses widened. In Asian emerging markets, rates have been stable as few banks have investments linked to U.S. subprime mortgages.
``These are extraordinary times and I have a very strong sense it is not good,'' said Rory Robertson, an interest-rate strategist at Macquarie Bank Ltd., Australia's largest investment bank, in Sydney. ``This is indicative of the global credit crunch intensifying worldwide. Banks are finding it increasingly difficult to fund new business.''
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