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You sound "hesitant"!
Wow very useful data, thx for the pics.
Although it's still not easy to interpret even with this diagram. Right now, are we still in the "Hesitant Uneven Recovery" stage or the "Strong Recovery" stage or the "Boom" stage? My guess would be the "Boom" stage...though it certainly doesn't feel like one
Those clocks are based on historical behaviour that doesnt include QE. The new clock needs Fed manipulation and build empty cities in China inserted somewhere.
A couple of signs that made me think we're in a "Boom", although a fragile one:@lawnmower79. What makes you think we are in a Boom? You've said it yourself doesn't feel like it.
A couple of signs that made me think we're in a "Boom", although a fragile one:
Referring to the economic clock posted earlier in this thread we have:
- US stock market at all-time highs.
- Easier money through QE that's starting to end (maybe).
- US real estate price recovery
http://au.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
- There are talks of some countries raising interest rates again. Turkey had to do it to protect the Lira from falling through the floor. Talks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand possibly raising interest rates. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101375490
Talks of Australia stopping rate cuts and possibly switching to increasing interest rates sometime down the track this year following New Zealand's footsteps.
Based on the above, I believe the closest state in the cycle that we are in currently in is the "Boom" state. Commodities is a mixed bag as you've gotta separate industrial (eg. iron) into wealth preservation commodities (eg. gold). If I'm missing something to indicate otherwise please point it out.
Ok, nice wrap up but I don't read it that way LM79 and a quick google foo of world interest rates shows that, the majority of countries have lowered or kept rates on hold with only a handful raising. The market, especially the property market, may be indicating a boom state but isn't that from a low base? So to me (and I'm just a pleb) overall it's at 7~8pm at best.
These charts/pix of course are just guides and an astute observer would note that there are cycles within cycles and thus, act according to his or hers trading strategy.
I guess too that a Boom predisposes there's a Bust coming. Hmm...markets down a bit lately. Bottom trawling anyone?
If/when the market crashes I'll be keeping an eye out for the larger 'safer' LICs (eg AFI, ARG, MLT, BKI etc) trading at big discounts to their NTA. When this happens after a market crash, you're effectively picking up parcels of already cheap blue chip stocks at an even bigger discount.
Unless you are shorting it is pretty hard to profit in a falling market. Some stocks still rise but those rises are usually restrained because they are swimming updtream against the general market trend. And, unless you are Nostradamus and know when the fall has bottomed, you are still catching falling knives.Time to dust off this thread. When the fit finally hits the shan at some point before the end of 2021, what shares would you buy:
1. Firstly, to profit from the collapsing market.
2. Secondly, at the bottom of the market, the stocks that will recover the fastest after being oversold.
My instinct will be:
1. Unhedged gold miners with large reserves, lean operations and a very low AISC per oz. Unless the gold price collapses too.
2. Meat and potatoes stocks like WOW will probably recover quickly. People gotta eat. WES & CSL too.
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