What % of traders fail?

[chrislp]

Thanks Julia, I don't know why some people can't understand it.

Yeh but I want yours---the one that tells you before it happens (The trend!)

This quote below is bollocks. If anyone can identify the start of a bull market/bear market they need not be here telling all they can. Best be sipping pina colada on the beaches of Barbados. Simple trend following.

You can pick up some great info from the links below. You should have a read.

http://www.facebook.com/notes/the-chartist/asx-myth-busters/177606291593

http://www.facebook.com/notes/the-chartist/newtons-first-law/172404281593

http://www.facebook.com/notes/the-chartist/eggs-trends/166718361593

 

[Wysiwyg]

You can pick up some great info from the links below. You should have a read.

Step 1: Place your finger on the chart at the perfect hindsight buy point.
Step 2: Now place it on the perfect hindsight sell point.
Step 3: Move both points 5 mm to the right.

Notice now that you are now buying as prices are moving up and exiting as prices are moving down?

The perfect trend following strategy.

Ha. : Thanks bloke. His ability is commensurate with market experience. There is a lot of fantastic reading out there. Good luck with it all.
Ciao.

 

[yonnie]

I must say you really dont read that well.

Tech said he traded it but in a much smaller way.

 

[chrislp]

Wysiwyg, rather than discredit all opinions lets hear some of yours in relation to the topic.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I must say you really dont read that well.

Tech said he traded it but in a much smaller way.

I don't recall whistling.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Wysiwyg, rather than discredit all opinions lets hear some of yours in relation to the topic.

I made the second post and I don't discredit all opinions.

 

[tech/a]

You got nothing new to add here so move along.

Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain - and most fools do.

I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters

Another Pina Colada---Cheers.

 

[Julia]

Wysiwyg, isn't it possible for you to simply disagree with someone without sarcasm and mockery?
We can all learn from what other people do from time to time.

Btw, just how did you manage your own p/f during the GFC?

And as a PS, I doubt that anyone espousing the usefulness of basic trend following is actually claiming to be able to pick the exact top or bottom.
I certainly didn't, but I still preserved most of my capital, ready for buying back in when the uptrend returned.

 

[pixel]

IMHO it's not so much a question of "what % of traders fail", but "What are the causes for so many traders failing?"
We will never really know for certain, how many traders, or what percentage of start-ups are failing. Two reasons:

• Firstly, "failing" is a relative assessment. One person may lose a small amount and give up because they realise it's not their cup of tea. I take my hat off for such realistic self-assessment. Another person may have a big fortune to lose and muddle along for a long time without fully going broke.
• Secondly, even if we knew for sure that a much bandied-about figure of 80% were correct - what would that mean for us personally? What's the conclusion a newbie could possibly draw from such a number?

No - I reckon we should discuss why some people fail and why some people succeed. Ignoring pot luck, which does play a role sometimes, IMO insufficient preparation, excessive expectation, and too much belief in marketing hype are the key reasons for failure. Pig-headed insistence in mantras like "I am right. My broker is right. This commany's management is right." or "This share is now so wildly undervalued that I have to average down." are a definite shortcut to Skid Row. A few others are collated in a short article Dangerous Influences.

Leaves ways to ensure we do NOT succumb to those dangers:
A good start may be a collection of "open secrets" one very successful Dude published years ago on his blog site 20 Rules of Trading, which were expanded by some other traders that're no slouches either - inasmuch as I know they're still trading full-time and living not badly off the proceeds.

Specifically what can be done in a Bear Market, I can only report what I have done:

• When the indicators sugegsted to me a severe downturn may be about to hit us, I liquidated most of my share positions and started 2008 with about 95% cash.
• Then I changed my market scanning techniques and trading strategy to identify shares that would most likely show the beginning of a swing upwards. Read Darryl Guppy's "Bear Trading" book for details. All through 2008 and early 2009, I was happy with small upswing profits and took profit sometimes just after a day or two as soon as some obvious resistance was hit. Requires an eye on the ball and definitely live data. To a limited extent, I traded Short, using CFDs.
• When my charts suggested the bottom was in, I gradually reversed to the old strategies and was fully invested by end of March 2009.

FWIW, right now, I'm again about 75% in cash. Draw from that whatever conclusion you wish.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Interesting thoughts there Pixel.

No - I reckon we should discuss why some people fail and why some people succeed. Ignoring pot luck, which does play a role sometimes, IMO insufficient preparation, excessive expectation, and too much belief in marketing hype are the key reasons for failure.

These reasons seem quite sound on the surface but I wonder what determines "insufficient, excessive and too much belief"?

Alright I will tell you. It is only "after" an event has taken place can these adjectives be assigned as reasons for failure. "Because we are dealing with a situation that isn't completely under our control."
If proceedings turned favourably for the participant, would they then have good preparation, correct expectation and the right amount of belief?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Wysiwyg, isn't it possible for you to simply disagree with someone without sarcasm and mockery?

Yes Julia. Sometimes the cheeky boy inside pops up. I will check myself to a certain extent if I remember in the future.

We can all learn from what other people do from time to time.

This is true. Did you see anything to learn from or just someones hindsight view? Hmmm!

Btw, just how did you manage your own p/f during the GFC?

I chose to hold through what turned out to be a fairly decent market decline. I learned much about myself and the nature of the securities markets.

And as a PS, I doubt that anyone espousing the usefulness of basic trend following is actually claiming to be able to pick the exact top or bottom.
I certainly didn't, but I still preserved most of my capital, ready for buying back in when the uptrend returned.

No Julia they are not. If we quote the sentences in context then things such as:

"Know when to hold em,Know when to fold em".

and

The big money is made by getting out when a bear market is starting & getting back in at the early stages of a new bull market. Simple trend following.

are, well what can I say? Educational, incisive, wise? Simple ... trend ... following! What'sat?

 

[pixel]

Interesting thoughts there Pixel.


These reasons seem quite sound on the surface but I wonder what determines "insufficient, excessive and too much belief"?

Alright I will tell you. It is only "after" an event has taken place can these adjectives be assigned as reasons for failure. "Because we are dealing with a situation that isn't completely under our control."
If proceedings turned favourably for the participant, would they then have good preparation, correct expectation and the right amount of belief?

Definitely not, wysiwyg;
Seeing the time you've been participating in these discussions, I'll give you the benefit of assuming you've gathered sufficient experience as a Trader. If so, you will know how much time and independent critical analysis of market factors is required to "get more right than wrong"; you will also know that you can "guess" with a high rate of success where the market in general and a particular stock specifically will most likely be heading.

As a Technical Analyst, I know that chart setups rarely repeat in exact detail, but "History rhymes" - at least in my experience. And it's on the basis of my personal experience that I take part in these Forum discussions. Presumably, we all do.

 

[Wysiwyg]

As a Technical Analyst, I know that chart setups rarely repeat in exact detail, but "History rhymes" - at least in my experience. And it's on the basis of my personal experience that I take part in these Forum discussions. Presumably, we all do.

Yes I think so too.

 

[chrislp]

Sometimes the cheeky boy inside pops up.

 

[nunthewiser]

Personally tend to agree somewhat with that internet troll wysiwyg

from what ive read of chrislp,s posts they have been nothing more than the normal hindsight genius statements that bore me to tears............ yes we all know sell at the top and buy at the bottom blah blah blah..........but anyone of us internet gurus can spruik how great we were after the fact.

watch this............

yes follow the trend until the end like i always do , i sold at the top and bought at the lows .i am great ..... thankyou.

 

[tech/a]

This is true. Did you see anything to learn from or just someones hindsight view? Hmmm!

Your one of these people who make assumptions without taking the time to investigate. Go below and to post 28 and show me the hindsight analysis on this post----note the date of the post.

Your own bias clouds you judgement and ability to grow.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211&page=2

 

[yonnie]

someone will grow fastest if open to other views without discarding it straight away. do your research instead; you might hit gold somewhere.

pixel: could you throw up a chart and point out your technical indicators that indicated a slump was coming plus your thoughts at the time? you must have been pretty sure to dump most of your shares.
very interested in learning about the overall market..........

 

[Wysiwyg]

Your one of these people who make assumptions without taking the time to investigate. Go below and to post 28 and show me the hindsight analysis on this post----note the date of the post.

Your own bias clouds you judgement and ability to grow.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211&page=2

I can tell you now I will never use Elliot Wave in my analysis. Just as I will never use the zig-zag indicator. There are multiple analysis methods and Elliot Wave as an option is a definite never ever ever for me.

 

[Wysiwyg]

 

[tech/a]

I can tell you now I will never use Elliot Wave in my analysis. Just as I will never use the zig-zag indicator. There are multiple analysis methods and Elliot Wave as an option is a definite never ever ever for me.

Of the multiple analysis methods which do you use?
How do you use it/them. (as in application).
Do you trade?/Invest? or do you simply gather information.