What % of traders fail?

[tech/a]

yeah its true but in a trending market like we are in now anyone can make money

SHOULD.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

yeah its true but in a trending market like we are in now anyone can make money

ummm don't think so. plenty of people lost money over the last bull-market. you still have to be able to time your entry and be able to hold the position to reach a profit and close with it. sounds easy, just all the CFD traders.

 

[Wysiwyg]

yeah its true but in a trending market like we are in now anyone can make money

I would like 100 bucks for every stock I have bought in an up trending market that tracked sideways or declined in price.

Nice bait though.

 

[IFocus]

Started over ten years ago met thousands along the way know of only two others personally that make a serious return "trading" over a number of years out side of this forum.

 

[nioka]

yeah its true but in a trending market like we are in now anyone can make money

"Know when to hold em,
Know when to fold em"

That is what makes the money. The big money was made by holding your nerve and trading on the way down,staying in the market and accumulating during the lemming rush.

That is followed by not taking small profits and holding stocks based on their fundamentals.

eg. A million CER cost $26,500 now worth $210,000 and still way under the NTA value. Could be worth a million in another year.
A million ADI cost $70,000 now worth $280,000 and waiting on flow results. Could be worth a million or two by years end. The same goes for their partners AUT and EKA.
Stocks like LYC, VPG, BUL, EDE, TAS to name a few that were or are going cheap and have sound fundamentals are "investor" stocks. Those trading them often got/get burnt. So why trade unless it is to accumulate.

If your answer is "a lot of investors got burnt too". Think why. Did they borrow to invest?. Did they do their own research or rely on dodgy advice?. Did they panic and sell in the lemming rush?. Were they impatient?. Did they have the courage to average down and hold.

Most traders lose money as do most gamblers. They live off one another, for one to prosper another will lose. Most investors will gain through the productivity of their investment.

 

[chrislp]

The big money was made by holding your nerve and trading on the way down,staying in the market and accumulating during the lemming rush.

I disagree, trading on the way down is what kills a lot of traders. The big money is made by getting out when a bear market is starting & getting back in at the early stages of a new bull market. Simple trend following.

It goes back to your quote "Know when to hold em,Know when to fold em".
If you wouldn't "fold em" during the 08 bear market under what circumstances would you ever fold?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I disagree, trading on the way down is what kills a lot of traders. The big money is made by getting out when a bear market is starting & getting back in at the early stages of a new bull market. Simple trend following.

It goes back to your quote "Know when to hold em,Know when to fold em".
If you wouldn't "fold em" during the 08 bear market under what circumstances would you ever fold?

sounds easy i spouse you got out day 2 of the meltdown huh! the question for you is, when is what could be a normal correction see for 03 -08 a melt down??? When it hits that pain point and your emotions are ruling your head do u pull the pin after losing 3 years of sitting or pray that's the bottom till your in a massive loss. Did you have long term positions into the melt down?

it's always easy to say what to do after the event.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I disagree, trading on the way down is what kills a lot of traders.

There's nothing wrong with covering or shorting to profit in a turn of market.

 

[chrislp]

sounds easy i spouse you got out day 2 of the meltdown huh! the question for you is, when is what could be a normal correction see for 03 -08 a melt down??? When it hits that pain point and your emotions are ruling your head do u pull the pin after losing 3 years of sitting or pray that's the bottom till your in a massive loss. Did you have long term positions into the melt down?

it's always easy to say what to do after the event.

Speak for yourself.

I started trading in 08 so I wasn't in. However I have designed my own rules which would (in hindsight of course) have gotten me out of all long positions firstly in July 07 & then again in November 07 & I would have started taking short positions then.

Hindsight aside I started trading long again in April 09. Simple trend following, I'm sure most trend followers would have had similar strategies.

There's nothing wrong with covering or shorting to profit in a turn of market.

To clarify I mean averaging down is a killer for most. Throwing good money after bad IMO.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I started trading in 08 so I wasn't in. However I have designed my own rules which would (in hindsight of course) have gotten me out of all long positions firstly in July 07 & then again in November 07 & I would have started taking short positions then.

I know people that went through it, some are ok now others not. the emotional roller coaster that I saw was not pretty. where they at fault for getting caught i don't know and won't judge cuz I still lose trades and make mistakes.

so unless you lived it, I am not that interested to hear your hindsight of what you should have done. as you were not in it to know how it felt.

so you put your line on at the 09 bottom based on what you thought was value and a bottom, you got lucky like many others, so you have done well, well done t o u that call. so if it all began again on Monday I will love to see how you deal with it. That's if you still have your full line from 09, yeh i know you will post a reply with your exit plan, but when your in the thick of it it's funny how emotions cloud the plan!
just ask many of them that went through the last crash.

cheers

 

[chrislp]

so unless you lived it, I am not that interested to hear your hindsight of what you should have done.

You asked me "when is what could be a normal correction see for 03 -08 a melt down???"

I answered your question, if you are not interested in the first place then please don't waste my time.

so you put your line on at the 09 bottom based on what you thought was value and a bottom, you got lucky like many others, so you have done well, well done t o u that call. so if it all began again on Monday I will love to see how you deal with it. That's if you still have your full line from 09, yeh i know you will post a reply with your exit plan, but when your in the thick of it it's funny how emotions cloud the plan!
just ask many of them that went through the last crash.

No my trading style is different but as you are not interested I don't have anything more to add.

 

[tech/a]

I disagree, trading on the way down is what kills a lot of traders. The big money is made by getting out when a bear market is starting & getting back in at the early stages of a new bull market. Simple trend following.

It goes back to your quote "Know when to hold em,Know when to fold em".
If you wouldn't "fold em" during the 08 bear market under what circumstances would you ever fold?

No I agree.
The question of course is when is it serious enough to liquidate your portfolio. Not as simple as you would imagine in Realtime.
I did mine and while I avoided massive drawdown I missed the move from 3220 to 5000 (From my portfolio)--traded it though with much smaller funds.

More to the point is knowing when to load up and when to pullback during periods of normal market fluctuations.
Smoothing the equity curve is every traders challenge.

Most traders trade more as a hobby it really is those traders who look to trade enough to **influence their lifestyle who need to be in the group of % failure.

I would suggest those who aim to run a business **capable of generating enough income to increase their standard of living.This group as a whole would be very small when compared to "Traders who fail"

If successful meant success for these types of **business traders then I would say Traders that fail are way over 90%

 

[Wysiwyg]

Hindsight aside I started trading long again in April 09. Simple trend following, I'm sure most trend followers would have had similar strategies.

Rolling on the floor and laughing out loud at that. So you didn't like the December 08 trend change? Oh wait (LOL) you knew that wasn't going to be the market low.

I started trading in 08 so I wasn't in. However I have designed my own rules which would (in hindsight of course) have gotten me out of all long positions firstly in July 07 & then again in November 07 & I would have started taking short positions then.

So which one would you choose (in hindsight of course ) July 07 or November 07.

 

[chrislp]

So you didn't like the December 08 trend change? Oh wait (LOL) you knew that wasn't going to be the market low.

Not quite sure what you mean. The trend was still down in Dec 08 IMO.

So which one would you choose (in hindsight of course

Looking for short setups July -September 07, long setups September 07- November 07 & switch again.

Have you ever heard of a trend filter? I use it to only take positions in which way the market is headed.

 

[Julia]

No I agree.
The question of course is when is it serious enough to liquidate your portfolio. Not as simple as you would imagine in Realtime.
I did mine and while I avoided massive drawdown I missed the move from 3220 to 5000 (From my portfolio)--traded it though with much smaller funds.

More to the point is knowing when to load up and when to pullback during periods of normal market fluctuations.
Smoothing the equity curve is every traders challenge.

Agree. I did much the same. Liquidated all but two stocks that were still going up in Jan 08, but as a measure of capital preservation, and in light of global conditions which indicated a complete meltdown, but I was by no means sure of this. Imo we can only make the best decisions possible with what we know at the time.

Not quite sure what you mean. The trend was still down in Dec 08 IMO.

Agree.

Wysiwyg: I'm not sure why you're displaying so much mirth at chrislp's comments. They make pretty good sense to me.
What do you think he/she could have done to achieve a better outcome?
Or I, for that matter, or Tech, given we did pretty much as Chrislp is suggesting?

 

[tech/a]

Have you ever heard of a trend filter? I use it to only take positions in which way the market is headed

Yeh but I want yours---the one that tells you before it happens (The trend!)

Julia
As you know we did not know with certainty that there would be such a large turn in the market.
Both you and I, I'm sure didnt wish to place at risk enough $$s that severe loss would have effected our life styles.
As Ive always said catching those outlier moves that change lives is a matter of placing ourselves in front of on coming trains,so that we are swept away with them when they come.
Trick is to find the train and be prepared to hop off it when its likely to hit you on the way back!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Wysiwyg: I'm not sure why you're displaying so much mirth at chrislp's comments. They make pretty good sense to me.
What do you think he/she could have done to achieve a better outcome?
Or I, for that matter, or Tech, given we did pretty much as Chrislp is suggesting?

Hi there Julia,

Poster Tech/A noted he did not re-enter until 5000 points so count him out for "entering at the start of a bull market".

This quote below is bollocks. If anyone can identify the start of a bull market/bear market they need not be here telling all they can. Best be sipping pina colada on the beaches of Barbados.

I disagree, trading on the way down is what kills a lot of traders. The big money is made by getting out when a bear market is starting & getting back in at the early stages of a new bull market. Simple trend following.

Simple trend following.

 

[tech/a]

Poster Tech/A noted he did not re-enter until 5000 points so count him out for "entering at the start of a bull market".

You dont read all that well do you.

 

[tech/a]

You may wish to read these threads where the truly impossible according to you in fact is possible.

Pass me the Pina Colada

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211

AND

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1134

All before it happened.
Enjoy.

 

[Wysiwyg]

You may wish to read these threads where the truly impossible according to you in fact is possible.

Pass me the Pina Colada

You got nothing new to add here so move along.