What if China stops buying Aussie coal?

Sean K said:

Interesting thread. Well done @Dona Ferentes for it's rejuvenation, in a time when energy security and material supplies might be critical.

But, it's also been looked at in other threads, not sure what the direct point is here.

Is it getting revenue from coal sales, or energy security?

I'm leaning towards the benefit to our economy verses giving material to China who are intent on destroying us.

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interesting . A thousand brainfarts on ASF , and I'm selected.
Thread title .. China, coal, Australia.
Content .... China, coal, Australia.

Sean K said:

Please explain?

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!

the maths say Australia exports a LOT of coal

China imports a lot of stuff from Australia ( by percentage of Australian exports ) , some of that is coal

so IF China stops buying Australian coal , can we sell it to somebody else at a reasonable profit ( because we are too retarded to use the coal excess in Australia to manufacture goods to replace some imports , or to export complex products )

the problem is not China choosing not to buy our coal , the problem is Australia being too simple-minded to adapt to a new reality ( otherwise India would already be an equally important trading partner for our raw materials )

not all of it came from Oz, but certainly some of it did.
Mick

mullokintyre said:

not all of it came from Oz, but certainly some of it did.
Mick
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i find that surprising ( delightfully so since i hold some coal miners ) with China building nuclear power plants at a hectic pace , but maybe there is a gap to fill ( between commissioning those nuclear power plants , and industry needs now and the very near future )

divs4ever said:

i find that surprising ( delightfully so since i hold some coal miners ) with China building nuclear power plants at a hectic pace , but maybe there is a gap to fill ( between commissioning those nuclear power plants , and industry needs now and the very near future )

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China's approach to energy is basically "all of the above, all at once" since they're struggling to keep up.

That isn't unique to China though since most places with substantial systems historically saw multiple simultaneous development programs. Eg in Australia the Snowy hydro scheme was built concurrently with new coal-fired plant and same goes for the Kiewa, Eildon and Dartmouth hydro (all in Vic), coal was also expanded at the same time.

Back to China, generation for 2023 calendar year:

Coal = 5397.8 TWh
Hydro = 1244.2 TWh
Wind = 885.9 TWh
Solar = 584.1 TWh
Nuclear = 434.7 TWh
Gas = 316.1 TWh
Bioenergy = 204.3 TWh
Oil = 69.5 TWh

China nuclear capacity according to World Nuclear Association data:

2023 = 53.152 GW
2024 = 56.888 GW
Under construction = 30.827 GW

Even when all that under construction plant is completed, it'll still only produce 691.5 TWh per annum based on a 90% capacity factor.

So China has nuclear and is building more but they're not building anywhere near enough that would replace coal. Indeed even when all presently under construction nuclear facilities are completed, that still only puts nuclear in 4th place behind wind, hydro and coal. And quite likely in 5th place assuming more solar is also built.

Nuclear in China isn't so much about broad use of nuclear energy as it's about logistics. Practically the entire nuclear power fleet being on the eastern coastline:

Smurf1976 said:

China's approach to energy is basically "all of the above, all at once" since they're struggling to keep up.

That isn't unique to China though since most places with substantial systems historically saw multiple simultaneous development programs. Eg in Australia the Snowy hydro scheme was built concurrently with new coal-fired plant and same goes for the Kiewa, Eildon and Dartmouth hydro (all in Vic), coal was also expanded at the same time.

Back to China, generation for 2023 calendar year:

Coal = 5397.8 TWh
Hydro = 1244.2 TWh
Wind = 885.9 TWh
Solar = 584.1 TWh
Nuclear = 434.7 TWh
Gas = 316.1 TWh
Bioenergy = 204.3 TWh
Oil = 69.5 TWh

China nuclear capacity according to World Nuclear Association data:

2023 = 53.152 GW
2024 = 56.888 GW
Under construction = 30.827 GW

Even when all that under construction plant is completed, it'll still only produce 691.5 TWh per annum based on a 90% capacity factor.

So China has nuclear and is building more but they're not building anywhere near enough that would replace coal. Indeed even when all presently under construction nuclear facilities are completed, that still only puts nuclear in 4th place behind wind, hydro and coal. And quite likely in 5th place assuming more solar is also built.

Nuclear in China isn't so much about broad use of nuclear energy as it's about logistics. Practically the entire nuclear power fleet being on the eastern coastline:

View attachment 189178

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Island is dry and you need water for power stations, reliable water even more for nuclear..hint hint .same here in Australia, so solar and wind inland, coal and nuke on the coast.
Note coastal above does not mean seaview range and as opposed to Australia, China does have substantial inland population.

qldfrog said:

Island is dry and you need water for power stations, reliable water even more for nuclear..hint hint .same here in Australia, so solar and wind inland, coal and nuke on the coast.
Note coastal above does not mean seaview range and as opposed to Australia, China does have substantial inland population.

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check the interest in China building thorium reactors along with traditional plants , i haven't researched the thorium reactor but maybe it has more advantages the uranium in some areas

From what I'm reading presently in the popular financial press China is intending to build and manufacture, and thereby boost it's economy and Australia is planning to continue exporting coal. China is buying our coal and afaik has not signalled an intent not to in the near to medium term.

If I'm wrong could someone please enlighten me by posting links that suggest otherwise.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

From what I'm reading presently in the popular financial press China is intending to build and manufacture, and thereby boost it's economy and Australia is planning to continue exporting coal. China is buying our coal and afaik has not signalled an intent not to in the near to medium term.

If I'm wrong could someone please enlighten me by posting links that suggest otherwise.

gg

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i suspect in reality a pro-US Albo government is more likely to make relations with China more difficult , BUT if Albo does that how will the unions react to that ( it could affect some high-paying jobs inn the union hierarchy )

however if China is sensing Australia is becoming ( even more ) unfriendly it may source coal from other trading partners ( maybe even ignore sanctions and openly buy from North Korea )

Garpal Gumnut said:

From what I'm reading presently in the popular financial press China is intending to build and manufacture, and thereby boost it's economy and Australia is planning to continue exporting coal. China is buying our coal and afaik has not signalled an intent not to in the near to medium term.

If I'm wrong could someone please enlighten me by posting links that suggest otherwise.

gg

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Long term, maybe this for coking coal. In part -"Additionally, by eliminating the need for coal entirely, it would help the steel industry achieve the goal of near-zero carbon dioxide emissions."

houtman said:

Long term, maybe this for coking coal. In part -"Additionally, by eliminating the need for coal entirely, it would help the steel industry achieve the goal of near-zero carbon dioxide emissions."

China's new iron making method boosts productivity by 3,600 times

The new iron making method, developed by Chinese researchers, is both faster and more cost-effective, while also benefiting the environment.

interestingengineering.com

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I barely got past "researchers claim".


gg

divs4ever said:

i suspect in reality a pro-US Albo government is more likely to make relations with China more difficult , BUT if Albo does that how will the unions react to that ( it could affect some high-paying jobs inn the union hierarchy )

however if China is sensing Australia is becoming ( even more ) unfriendly it may source coal from other trading partners ( maybe even ignore sanctions and openly buy from North Korea )

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May's, if's, but's ...

China needs it.

We've got it.

China and we agree to trade it.

End of story.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:

China needs it.

We've got it.

China and we agree to trade it.

End of story.

gg

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One major issue of relevance however is that Australia’s coal production is declining.

I’ll post some figures later but in short it does look to have peaked at this point.

Smurf1976 said:

One major issue of relevance however is that Australia’s coal production is declining.

I’ll post some figures later but in short it does look to have peaked at this point.

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Indeed, it is quasi impossible to open new coal deposits here politically/legally.
Let's them starve..

Smurf1976 said:

One major issue of relevance however is that Australia’s coal production is declining.

I’ll post some figures later but in short it does look to have peaked at this point.

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some of the decline is politically motivated , while another factor is some financiers are agenda-driven


.. but i won't live forever so am happy to hold coal miners at ( mostly ) juicy entry prices

And this country has been literally asleep at the wheel since the GFC
As for coal :

Smurf1976 said:

I’ll post some figures later

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Production of black coal (thermal and coking) by year:

2018-19 (peak year) = 453,813,400 tonnes
2019-20 = 451,268,100 tonnes
2020-21 = 418,603,400 tonnes
2021-22 = 417,162,700 tonnes
2022-23 = 399,781,300 tonnes

On a state basis all producing states have declined.

NSW peak year 2019-20 at 199,657,300 tonnes. 2022-23 = 167,189,400 tonnes.

Queensland peak year 2018-19 at 250,568,600 tonnes. 2022-23 = 227,223,600 tonnes.

WA peak 2013 - 16 inclusive at 8,000,000 tonnes per annum. 2022-23 = 5,008,000 tonnes.

Official figures for Tasmania aren't particularly accurate given the low volume and that the single company that mines it is itself by far the largest user for another purpose (so doesn't necessarily produce coal to standard washing specs etc given it's for their own use) but the peak was around 480,000 tonnes per annum as a plateau between the mid-1980's to mid-00's but recent production is struggling to maintain half that rate. About half that peak value was used by the same company that mined it, rest sold to others within the state.

Victoria hasn't mined black coal at all since 1968 and was never a major producer. It uses small amounts for auxiliary fuel in power stations and firing tourist steam trains but it's not a major user.

WA and Tas have both shipped coal in from NSW to supplement falling local production. In WA's case they literally took coal to a coal mine (well, to a power station beside the mine but near enough) whilst in Tas all coal use is industrial (not electricity) and one user's now shipping in its entire requirements.

So overall, coal's a declining industry in Australia in volume terms.

Brown coal also declining. Production peaked at 72.5 million tonnes in 2009-10 with the 2022-23 figure being just under 39 million tonnes.

I'm aware that coal is a somewhat contentious industry so I'm posting this for information only and won't be entering into political comment regarding it. Data source for the above is Australian Government statistics, except Tasmania which is from my own detailed knowledge of who's using it and for what purpose.