What does the Carbon Tax mean for me?

This place is so much fun!!!

Go against the grain and everything that one says is an argument. State a fact and have it declared as spin. Words are put into one's mouth. Remind people of dollars coming their way and the thread is hijacked.

But the biggest observation I make is that the vast majority of members must be Greek.

Okay lets take this discussion back to somewhere close to the role of the Carbon levy.

One of the intentions of the carbon levy is to change the financial figures facing businesses and encourage the replacement of carbon base fossil fuels with renewable energy supplies. We don't want to talk about it too much but one of the overarching issues facing our society is peak oil and peak energy. Put simply it is becoming very clear that sometime soon (if not already) our energy supplies will start to go down hill and there will be no way to reverse the trend.

At that stage we should of course have gracefully transformed our society to renewable energy sources that never run out shouldn't we ?

But maybe it isn't as simple as that. There is an excellent post which outlines the impact simply developing renewable energy technology will have on our energy supplies. Perhaps this is what we need to consider before we kick out the carbon pollution levy. Check it out

Do We Have What it Takes?

Many of us have great hopes for our energy future that involve a transition to a gleaming renewable energy infrastructure, but we need to realize that we face a serious bottleneck in its implementation. The up-front energy investment in renewable energy infrastructures has not been visible as a hurdle thus far, as we have had surplus energy to invest (and smartly, at that; if only we had started in earnest earlier!). Against a backdrop of energy decline””which I feel will be the only motivator strong enough to make us serious about a replacement path””we may find ourselves paralyzed by the Trap.

In the parallel world of economics, an energy decline likely spells deep recession. The substantial financial investment needed to carry out an energy replacement crash program will be hard to scrape together in tough times, especially given that we are unlikely to converge on the “right” solution into which we sink our bucks.

Politically, the Energy Trap is a killer. In my lifetime, I have not witnessed in our political system the adult behavior that would be needed to buckle down for a long-term goal involving short-term sacrifice. Or at least any brief bouts of such maturity have not been politically rewarded. I’m not blaming the politicians. We all scream for ice cream. Politicians simply cater to our demands. We tend to vote for the candidate who promises a bigger, better tomorrow””even if such a path is untenable.

The only way out of the political trap is for a substantial fraction of our population to understand the dimensions of the problem: to understand that we’ve been spoiled by the surplus energy available through fossil fuels, and that we will have to make decade-level sacrifices to put ourselves on a new track. The only way to accomplish this is through sober education, which is what Do the Math is all about. It’s a trap! Spread the word!

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http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-10-19/energy-trap-0

basilio said:

Okay lets take this discussion back to somewhere close to the role of the Carbon levy.

One of the intentions of the carbon levy is to change the financial figures facing businesses and encourage the replacement of carbon base fossil fuels with renewable energy supplies.

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Wrong. It's about distribution of the wealth, and that's what this thread is all about. LosyMYShirt wanted to know what his share of the re-distributed wealth will be. It's all about getting something you haven't earned..

People probably say the majority on here are righties because this is a "Stock Forum" - primarily about wealth creation and capitalism - 2 things the lefties wouldn't know anything about!

drsmith said:

Everyone aye!

Not a good outcome for Labor.

The mathematics is that we are worse off compared to the policy position put by Labor at the last election.

When introduced, the impact of the flood levy was intended to be temporary regardless of any carbon tax, or are you saying otherwise ?

Can you explain where the money comes from to support the carbon tax related tax cuts when billions of Australian dollars are exported overseas after it becomes a trading scheme ?


What about as the rate goes up and up and and it's expanded, for example, to include fuel on heavy transport ?

??

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Feel happy to explain how Abbott and Hockey will fill the structural hole left by Howard and Costello to the Federal budget.

Hint middle class welfare + GST.

basilio said:

Okay lets take this discussion back to somewhere close to the role of the Carbon levy.
One of the intentions of the carbon levy is to change the financial figures facing businesses and encourage the replacement of carbon base fossil fuels with renewable energy supplies.

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Perhaps 'encourage' isn't the word you are looking for. A mugger, for instance, does not 'encourage' you to give him money with his gun.

Basics: electricity generation using carbon is a product of a need. That need is 'the most efficient way to get things done'. Getting things done (manufacturing, mining, r&d, entertainment) is conducive to a pleasant standard of living. 'Not getting things done' is bad. People in Africa don't 'get things done'.

Renewable energy is not used because it does not 'get things done'. It is a sap. When A is more expensive than B, it means A requires more effort, energy, labour, materials (i.e more money) to produce the same result as B. It saps energy and resources, and we lose. That completely defeats the purpose of energy generation in the first place. Understand?

The carbon tax, in a country where carbon generates energy, is the same thing as saying 'we are going to throttle our energy output'. This in turn is the same thing as saying 'we are going to throttle our economic activity'. How does this manifest itself? Most visually, the price per unit energy increases. This price is an input to every single stage of the production structure. As goods traverse the production timeline, from early raw materials, through manufacturing, through distribution, through retail, they collect the increased costs created by the increased energy price.
The consumers, lose.

Expressed another way. Suppose the energy output rate was 10GW. The carbon tax is introduced, with the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Logically, as energy is produced from carbon, the goal is also reducing energy output rate. Now the rate is 8GW. How does this occur? 2GW of power which were being used by industry and consumers, ceases. Thus 20% of industrial output and consumer enjoyment, ceases.

But 'new renewable energy projects will make up for this' you say? But those generators do not exist. They must first be built. How much resources would it take to replace the coal stations that were providing the power originally? Where will those resources come from? From everywhere else. We all lose. And how long will it take to build these generators, which are more expensive, and less familiar to construction firms than coal stations, when the energy supply is concurrently throttled? How long before we got back to where we were, 20 years?
Do you see?

I guess the Australian government wasn't content with everyone else being in a recession, and wants our country to join the club. After all, doesn't a recession mean politicians are looked at to 'do something'? They love that.

Eager said:

... State a fact and have it declared as spin....)

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If something is truly an indisputable fact, it would not be declared as spin...

So, if you are stating something that isn't actually fact, expect to cop a hiding...

IFocus said:

Feel happy to explain how Abbott and Hockey will fill the structural hole left by Howard and Costello to the Federal budget.

Hint middle class welfare + GST.

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I doubt that I will agree with everything the coalition come up with as policy, but even their duds will have to be streets ahead of what we have now.

IFocus, I notice you often like to divert attention to the coaliton and their ability to budget - but do you ever look in your own corner to see just how poor the budgeting skills are? Have you looked at the black holes of debt that are rising at a frightening rate? Do you understand the billions of dollars that are likely to be sent overseas in abatements to PRETEND we are reducing emissions? It really is the pot calling the kettle black, imo.

At least carbon tax will be repealed and the Pacific Solution re-instated. Now that's a great start...

When the rest of the world has been devoured by excessive carbon dioxide, everyone can come live in clean, green Australia.

Thanks To the Max for recognising the intention of the carbon levy. The point I was trying to get across is that at some stage in the not too distant future all of us will have to deal with declining fossil fuel production - simply because we are reaching peak supplies. The scary part is that actually changing our societies dependence on non renewable fossil fuel to renewable alternatives will require all the juice you are talking about and a long lead time

Your quite right to point out the challenge to our economy.

But unless every analyst is totally wrong (yet again ) we are definitely running out of cheap easy to find energy and the consequences will be dire. And that is certainly one of the reasons we need to start the change away from carbon fuels.

http://www.energybulletin.net/stori...fleming’s-us-army-war-college-thesis-peak-oil

If something is truly an indisputable fact, it would not be declared as spin.. sails .

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Unless of course you simply make the decision it is not a fact and declare it propaganda or spin. eh

Eager said:

But the biggest observation I make is that the vast majority of members must be Greek.

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Cheerio Eager.

Please close the door on your way out. There's the stench of a rotting government wafting in.

IFocus said:

Feel happy to explain how Abbott and Hockey will fill the structural hole left by Howard and Costello to the Federal budget.

Hint middle class welfare + GST.

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I have empathy for you IF.

I understand why you want to change the subject.

drsmith said:

Can you explain where the money comes from to support the carbon tax related tax cuts when billions of Australian dollars are exported overseas after it becomes a trading scheme ?

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You do understand that billions of dollars will be imported into Australia to pay for offsets and their creation...you are aware of that right?

wayneL said:

This issue is not about being left or right, it is about honesty and what is good policy for the country.

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We have the out come we have because of the left - right tug of war, honesty and good policy is wishful thinking, if John Howard had the balls to follow the recommendations of the Howard funded Australian greenhouse office way back when....we wouldn't be in the mess we are in.

Unfortunately the Libs decided to stay in power by pissing of as few people as possible (doing nothing) instead of being honest and implementing good policy for the country.

It's the broader economy effects that will matter to most far more than any change in personal taxation (or increased household electricity bills).

In very rough terms, it looks like a further push in the "two speed economy" direction with relatively little impact on mining in WA whilst the tax has a much larger impact on manufacturing which affects Vic, SA, Tas especially.

So overall in a big picture sense, it further splits the country into the "two speed" model and that's going to make life difficult for the RBA amongst others. If interest rates were set based only on the non-mining economy then they'd have been slashed long ago...

Enter the mining tax... By throttling mining to some extent, thus adding a burden to that industry in a similar manner to how the carbon tax affects services and especially manufacturing, the two speed economic situation is reduced. It's a bit like saying you applied some of the brakes and that made the car handle dangerously. So now you apply the rest of the brakes - but have no doubt that what you are doing is slowing it down overall even though it might be done in a controlled manner.

So_Cynical said:

You do understand that billions of dollars will be imported into Australia to pay for offsets and their creation...you are aware of that right?

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Where, how, and to what extent will it offset the money going out ?

Also, to what extent will it displace other productive activities such as food production ?

basilio said:

Thanks To the Max for recognising the intention of the carbon levy. The point I was trying to get across is that at some stage in the not too distant future all of us will have to deal with declining fossil fuel production - simply because we are reaching peak supplies. The scary part is that actually changing our societies dependence on non renewable fossil fuel to renewable alternatives will require all the juice you are talking about and a long lead time

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Strongly agreed about oil etc being limited.

However, in the context of Australia the most rational thing to do in the short term would be to:

1. Phase out gas-fired electricity generation as rapidly as possible, with a target of minimising it as far as practical straight away and getting down to a limit of 3% of total generation into main grids by 2030.

2. Prioritise any fuel other than oil, gas and conventionally mined black coal (in order of priority for avoidance) as the preferred fuel for electricity generation to the extent that we are still going to use some fossil fuels for this purpose. This would include the encouragement of underground coal gassification.

3. Adopt CNG as the preferred fuel in new light vehicles (hence the critical step point 1 above).

The problem I have with the carbon tax is that it actually encourages the burning of more gas which is pure madness in a resource management sense. It's like literally turning gold into lead when you've already got heaps of lead just sitting there. Logically, we should avoid using the scarcer resources for electricity and use things which are plentiful - renewables, brown coal, underground gassification etc but not precious natural gas (or even worse, oil).

I'd be much happier with the whole thing if it were a tax on limited resources per se rather than a back door means which has the nasty side effect of encouraging the large scale squandering of gas. .

So_Cynical said:

Unfortunately the Libs decided to stay in power by pissing of as few people as possible (doing nothing) instead of being honest and implementing good policy for the country.

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Once up on a time,

in 2007,

there was a federal election.

One of the major parties running for office kept saying,

all together now........

ME TOO

basilio said:

So, so so sorry Mr Wayne. Just noting that an overwhelming amount of what passes as "argument" in this forum are just bald statements of peoples alleged political affiliations as an attack point.

Of course it's not just you who uses this particular technique. There are plenty of other "infallible beings " who when they can't find a rational reason for a position jump to the socialist/watermelon/ whatever tag to bag other posters.

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Basilio, can't you perhaps see that you also do this from your own point of view?
It's nonetheless a fair comment because we are all going to be guilty of seeing anything from the point of view of our own fixed biases.

But (though you don't do this to the level So Cynical and IFocus do it) it does become irritating to continually be labelled as "The Right" simply because one has offered a criticism of government behaviour and policies which demonstrate total ineptitude.

I'm a swinging voter, have voted both conservative and Labor, both federally and State. I'm quite OK with a Labor government if that government demonstrates a comprehension of social, economic, and geopolitical fundamentals.

Such can not be said of this government, hence much of the criticism that is directed toward it.

Making such criticism should not automatically confer the label of "The Right".
Please stop this silly labelling, all of you who do it so repetitively.

JTLP said:

People probably say the majority on here are righties because this is a "Stock Forum" - primarily about wealth creation and capitalism - 2 things the lefties wouldn't know anything about!

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Valid comment. There is bound to be a particular demographic attracted to this forum.

IFocus, I notice you often like to divert attention to the coaliton and their ability to budget - but do you ever look in your own corner to see just how poor the budgeting skills are? Have you looked at the black holes of debt that are rising at a frightening rate? Do you understand the billions of dollars that are likely to be sent overseas in abatements to PRETEND we are reducing emissions? It really is the pot calling the kettle black, imo.

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If you're actually expecting a response from IF, don't hold your breath. I'm still waiting for a response to a question I asked days ago.

JTLP said:

People probably say the majority on here are righties because this is a "Stock Forum" - primarily about wealth creation and capitalism - 2 things the lefties wouldn't know anything about!

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That's a crock! i say the majority of ASF posters are right wing because the evidence of that is totally overwhelming (number of posts and threads) we live in a world of capitalism tempered with socialism..if you don't like that go live in the US were the minimum wage is like $6

drsmith said:

Where, how, and to what extent will it offset the money going out ?

Also, to what extent will it displace other productive activities such as food production ?

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How long is a piece of string? what will a tonne of iron ore be worth in 5 years or a Liter of milk?

Fact is Australia will be one of the country's of first choice when it comes to international offset creation investment, especially when the difficulty's encountered by international offset investors are taken into consideration...JI and CDM investment in developing country's over the last decade and a half has not been a spectacular success due to political uncertainty's and regulatory issues.

Some supporting projections please, or are we expected to fly blinded by that piece of string of unknown length ?

So_Cynical said:

we live in a world of capitalism tempered with socialism..if you don't like that go live in the US were the minimum wage is like $6

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Typical of you to quote the minimum wage without reference to the fact that most of the income of most people in the US on this low wage is derived from tips, something that hardly exists in Australia.