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Watch July 1 for big fall XAO

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Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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This rally seems to me to be more driven by the big funds seeking to dress up their results for the mug punters to read in their glossy prospectuses in 6 months time, than by any technical or fundamental change in Australian stock valuations.

Once the funds have valued their stocks after 4pm on June 30th, the brokers will be inundated with sell orders by 6pm in advance of the next days trading.

I'd bet London to a brick and a fairly well shaken bottle of sauce to a mate's dingos tail ( excuse me I've had an attack of the Kev07's) that come July 1 all these funds will be offloading their stocks and cashing up in advance of October when the fall chills will strike the US markets.

gg
 
Yeh you could be on the money there GG.

Despite the lingo you actually talk some sense at times ;):p:
 
My thoughts exactley GG,

I've been of this opinion for a couple of months and have 100% cash. For the past 4 to 6 weeks the risk of a significate pull back have been high. Lots of risk for what another 10% upside on what fundamental? vs 15-25% drop.
I don't trade so there will be lots of posters talking about making money each way and position accordinly.

The way its going I believe that there will be a pull back of maybe 10% and that will be the signal that many people are waiting for to get in on positions they have missed but I think thats the head fake and once those people are in then the real drop will occur.

I hate being in cash at the moment but some people tend to do stupid things when interest rates get this low. Not all people.

I will be patient and continue to build a war chest of cash to take advantage of opportunites as they presnt themselves.

Best

G
 
As Peter Russell Clark used to say - "Where's the Volume"? Well actually, he was looking for cheese, but same thing - something still smells funny?:D

Watch the window dressing on the Dow in the last half hr.
 
MMMMMMMM

So there's a conspiracy by fund managers :confused:

the ASX is on the up, but so is just about every stock market on the planet, and its not end of financial year in the likes of the US, the UK or Europe :D

Ive learnt the hard way, trade what happens not what you think will happen and expect the unexpected.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I'd bet London to a brick and a fairly well shaken bottle of sauce to a mate's dingos tail ( excuse me I've had an attack of the Kev07's)
Click to expand...

GG, sounds like you've been flat out like a lizard drinking. :p:
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This rally seems to me to be more driven by the big funds seeking to dress up their results for the mug punters to read in their glossy prospectuses in 6 months time, than by any technical or fundamental change in Australian stock valuations.

Once the funds have valued their stocks after 4pm on June 30th, the brokers will be inundated with sell orders by 6pm in advance of the next days trading.

I'd bet London to a brick and a fairly well shaken bottle of sauce to a mate's dingos tail ( excuse me I've had an attack of the Kev07's) that come July 1 all these funds will be offloading their stocks and cashing up in advance of October when the fall chills will strike the US markets.

gg
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Thats fabulous gg I was starting to think I was the only one who thought this was all BS.

Not long after that the Super Bubbly Suck It Up For Free FHBG will hit the wall and we will be able to trade freely in stocks and abandoned real estate until the depression ends in the year 3000.
 
Welcome back GG,

Yeah I agree.

An eerie feeling is in the air; a proliferation of market training/newsletter ads on the telly coupled with strange big brother type, amateur trading reality shows amongst other things is making me uncomfortable.:D

I think its time to load on some cheap out of the money index puts.

Note to whoever's reading this.>> Don't follow my ideas, i'm more than likely to be wrong.
 
Hmm. I don't deny that this rally seems overdone and we could be in for that big fall on July 1.

But I'm a bit of a sceptic at heart and I can't swallow that the big funds can just manufacture a rally whenever it suits them. The big guys have taken a beating over the last 18 months and are just as much at the mercy of the markets as everyone else.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Once the funds have valued their stocks after 4pm on June 30th, the brokers will be inundated with sell orders by 6pm in advance of the next days trading.
Click to expand...

I have heard this often recently, and people seem to be taking it as a given that stocks will plummet after June.If it was that obvious it would be too easy.

The market may surprise you.
 
Whilst the Australian market has been supported by insto's of late, doesn't mean were coming crashing down at the end of fin year.
With the end of fin year approaching this has required fund managers to keep the market propped up, to window dress their funds. I see no reason however that once the fin year is over as to why they would all of the sudden want to sell.
Also, its only our fin year that is approaching. The US still have till Oct 30. If the US markets keeps going up, we will drag along.
 
Porper said:
I have heard this often recently, and people seem to be taking it as a given that stocks will plummet after June.If it was that obvious it would be too easy.

The market may surprise you.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with this.

If the funds have been 'window dressing' for the financial year this would require alot of stock to be brought which means some pretty deep pockets. This also means accumulation so in theory we should see some sort of distribution as well.

I personally don't think it would make much business sense for these funds to unload a heap of stock on the 1st of July purely because a new FY has rolled over. Why wouldn't they try to ride this current strength for as long as possible? After all the more money they make the more bonuses they get paid.

I also don't understand the whole "there is no fundamental reason for this rally" speil. The fact is we were very oversold on the fact we all thought the financial system was going to implode and we were going to see another great depression but we have only seen a mild recession (especially in Oz) and people now realise that life goes on and the chances are we won't see a depression, so is it any wonder we have rallied so hard as people with money have now seen this as a huge buying opportunity.
 
What's the old saying about Bull Markets, "they climb a wall of worry"

I'm not saying this is a bull market but all the way up from the March low there have been calls of "this rally is based on nothing", "nothing more than a dead cat bounce", "we are sooooo overbought this is going to come crashing down any day now" etc etc etc.

At least you have put a date to your prediction, which is a lot more than most of the other "It's the end of the world" cryers have, but i'll continue to follow the trend thanks, rather than worry about something that's not based on a not a lot more than what would appear to be stab in the dark.
 
I disagree on a major fall on any particular date due to any particular reason.. but there will be a drop as valuations are now getting ahead of any recovery, and we'll soon see some hard results.

e.g. 30% reduction in iron ore contract negotiations, 58% in coking coal, these aren't the conditions for large rises in profit in the near future from our big resource co's.
 
On top of everything thus far, one wonders how many private investors will be wanting to dump non-performing or all-but-wiped-out stocks for tax write-offs by 30 June?

Metinks more this year than usual... :cool:



aj
 
like this private investor (waves). I have many hard lessons to finally cash in but holding till as late as possible as they're all going sideways right now so no immediate need to get out.

I think it would only be prudent to hedge a bit despite how bullish or bearish you feel.
 
Porper said:
I have heard this often recently, and people seem to be taking it as a given that stocks will plummet after June.If it was that obvious it would be too easy.

The market may surprise you.
Click to expand...

nomore4s said:
I tend to agree with this.

If the funds have been 'window dressing' for the financial year this would require alot of stock to be brought which means some pretty deep pockets. This also means accumulation so in theory we should see some sort of distribution as well.

I personally don't think it would make much business sense for these funds to unload a heap of stock on the 1st of July purely because a new FY has rolled over. Why wouldn't they try to ride this current strength for as long as possible? After all the more money they make the more bonuses they get paid.

I also don't understand the whole "there is no fundamental reason for this rally" speil. The fact is we were very oversold on the fact we all thought the financial system was going to implode and we were going to see another great depression but we have only seen a mild recession (especially in Oz) and people now realise that life goes on and the chances are we won't see a depression, so is it any wonder we have rallied so hard as people with money have now seen this as a huge buying opportunity.
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I fall into this camp also. There's now a widespread realisation that governments globally will do whatever it takes to prop up financial systems, and the market seems to have taken confidence from this.

I know a lot of people like myself who are testy about the extended period of waiting on the sidelines in cash and have recently begun feeding some of that cash back into the market.

Might be wrong though, so proceeding with caution.
 
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