Wartime Investments & the Economy

[waterbottle]

Europe is now at war, with supply chains being disrupted and global inflation set to skyrocket thanks to constrained energy supplies.

Stagflation and hyperinflation are terms that have been tossed around the forum (for a number of years) but seem likely in the near future.

My opinion is that in such an environment, cash would be useless and assets would be the best option for maintaining/increasing wealth.

Investments in oil & gas are the obvious answer here but I think that is only a short-term strategy. Over the long-term, I would expect oil & gas companies to begin drilling for more and ICEs become increasingly obsolete, both serving to reduce demand - to what effect I am uncertain.

Other possibilities are industrial metals - iron (ukraine was a large supplier), nickel, palladium and neon (for integrated circuits)

Others still would be related to agriculture - Ukraine being a large wheat exporter, corn and fertilizers.

How has war affected investments and economies in the past? What suggestions would the community have for such an environment?

 

[basilio]

Less is more ? Ensure one has as reasonably secure personal assets as are necessary to live comfortably. Be cautious about buying the next super yacht ..Build up local support networks. The floods in NSW/Queensland shows how critical informal support networks are when money can't be used.

From an investment POV certainly look at efforts to replace resources that will be in short supply.

 

[sptrawler]

History proves, toilet paper will be in short supply.
Those in the country who are self sufficient, with water, sewage and power will be able to rent out accommodation. People in the cities head bush, as infrastructure starts failing.

 

[Knobby22]

Thought this was interesting. Peace dividend started with fall of Berlin Wall. Over now.

 

[divs4ever]

Europe is now at war, with supply chains being disrupted and global inflation set to skyrocket thanks to constrained energy supplies.

Stagflation and hyperinflation are terms that have been tossed around the forum (for a number of years) but seem likely in the near future.

My opinion is that in such an environment, cash would be useless and assets would be the best option for maintaining/increasing wealth.

Investments in oil & gas are the obvious answer here but I think that is only a short-term strategy. Over the long-term, I would expect oil & gas companies to begin drilling for more and ICEs become increasingly obsolete, both serving to reduce demand - to what effect I am uncertain.

Other possibilities are industrial metals - iron (ukraine was a large supplier), nickel, palladium and neon (for integrated circuits)

Others still would be related to agriculture - Ukraine being a large wheat exporter, corn and fertilizers.

How has war affected investments and economies in the past? What suggestions would the community have for such an environment?

well early in 2022 i saw the Russian intervention and bought into BIS

normal logic would have you buying nickel miners ( that turned into an investment graveyard ) and iron miners ( except the future adversary is the current largest customer )

now i avoid companies that make war machines ( and accessories ) as they can get squeezed by changing customer demands

currently i am trying ( unsuccessfully ) to buy into OMH

OZ doesn't manufacture a lot these days , some maybe food producers could be considered ( i hold RFF , SHV , GNC and SGLLV )

say someone like ING ( i don't hold )