VPE - Victoria Petroleum

doctorj · 19 January 2007

Interesting to see watch VPE. Pre-consolidation trading was dull at best, perhaps the higher unit price gives it some credibility?

VPE have been crowing about Eagle for years now, but are yet to drill it successfully. In it's recent presentation they've slipped it into the drilling program in April, but according to other stakeholders, they're yet to present a proposal to the JV.

Is there anyone out there a little sharper than me that has picked up on how they plan to drill it? Horizontal again? And have they organised a rig? In this tight rig market, surely if they've not got some arrangement for a rig by now April isn't going to happen...

I have tried contacting VicPet directly but they're not responding to emails.

noirua · 19 January 2007

VPE have been merrily drilling away for over 10 years and hit an all-time adjusted high of $2.70 in 1997, and then suffered a rout, before recovering to an adjusted $1.34 in 2000, and then it happened again. It doesn't seem to matter how they drill, vertical or horizontal, it never seems to work out in the end. I was in the stock during the 2004 run up, to an adjusted 70 cents, plenty of enthusiasm then, but nothing since.

Someone started a thread on VPE at ADVFN that has interesting charts, etc., etc., that update on the header.

Maybe, because I've posted this, VPE will strike it rich, I hope so, good luck.

wintermute · 19 January 2007

anyone wanting to know more about the debacle that is Eagle north 1 should probably have a read of SUR's 4th quarter (2005/2006) report and first quarter (2006/2007) reports.... from the 1st quarter one it would appear that the JV partners are looking to get someone else in to be the operator, what this means to VPE I don't know )but probably not good!) though I think any eagle north 1 that was factored into the sp is now long gone....

I had a brief moment earlier today where I thought I should sell some of my shares at a small profit (at 29c) whilst I was in front, as I really do have to many vpe.... seems I'm too late (for now)... hopefully VPE isn't jinxed!! could see that gap at 26c filled now..... hopefully after that some more good news and on up she goes. fingers crossed

Tony.

The Mint Man · 5 February 2007

hey people,
Im interested in your coments on this one (VPE), have had my eye on it lately and it has also had a fair amount of press in the money magazine and the bulletin.
By the looks of their programe, they have a fair bit on in the next few months and with oil prices back near the $60 mark.... who knows? this one could be set to rise.

Please state if you own any of these in your reply.

Cheers

marklar · 5 February 2007

The Mint Man said:
Im interested in your coments on this one (VPE), have had my eye on it lately and it has also had a fair amount of press in the money magazine and the bulletin.

I hold a very small amount, it's back up around my buy price so I'm hopeful of a small rise soon. They seem to have average-bad luck the past couple of months, some of their JV partners seem a little erratic, but their drilling program for the next little while seems positive. Fingers crossed they find something worthwhile.

m.

noirua · 5 February 2007

marklar said:
I hold a very small amount, it's back up around my buy price so I'm hopeful of a small rise soon. They seem to have average-bad luck the past couple of months, some of their JV partners seem a little erratic, but their drilling program for the next little while seems positive. Fingers crossed they find something worthwhile.

m.

VPE's bad luck can't and will not go on for ever. They will carry on drilling and strike it lucky one day. Regular drilling results keep up the interest.

Out Too Soon · 10 February 2007

So chartist wizards, whats the next step? 21c or 29c?

marklar · 10 February 2007

Out Too Soon said:
So chartist wizards, whats the next step? 21c or 29c?

Current chart attached to this post (hopefully) MACD is heading down, way down... mind you, it's not been all that long since restructuring the share price, so it's difficult to tell if that means all that much yet.

21c hasn't happened during the quiet period of last year; if and I mean IF they manage a positive announcement that's along the lines of "we found oil" and not "we found something but dropped half the rig down the hole" then a sustained break past 27c might be possible.

m.

wintermute · 11 February 2007

I find VPE very difficult to chart, doesn't help that bigcharts hasn't adjusted the pre-consolidation price and volume data..... here is one from Incredible charts with the pre-consolidation adjusted.. macd looks pretty much the same as marklar's but it does at least give a better picture of the volume situation.

Personally I think what has happened was that there was a fair bit of offloading after the bonus options were issued. I have (for me) a substantial holding in vpe 50,000 shares.. I got 12500 options, last sale price of those options was 0.089... since you got 1 option for every four shares, that means that effectively the shares had a 0.022 premium on them, which would explain the drop from around 27c just before the options were issued to the 25c now....

Note that there was somewhat of a spinning top candle on Friday, these generally represent indecision, however the top half is taller than the bottom half, so perhaps the bulls slightly outweigh the bears.... could go either way and at present the macd and rsi suggest that is probably down.

I agree that if there is any positive announcement from the current drilling the sp should start heading north again

There was a gap between .245 and .26 that has now been filled... hopefully VPE is now ready to head on up to new highs..... I think that they are "finaly" getting some critical mass, and with the consolidation might start to be taken a little more seriously

Tony.

The Mint Man · 28 February 2007

well tried buying in at $0.215 today without any luck... seemed that small orders were bumping the price up from about 12:00pm all the way to 23c.
However, with the hang seng taking another beating ATM, I will wait until tomorrow and try again. Will watch lateline business tonight to see how the FTSE and dow reacts.... and go from there.
I think chances are that we will see a sea of red tomorrow again

cheers

clowboy · 28 February 2007

The Mint Man said:
well tried buying in at $0.215 today without any luck... seemed that small orders were bumping the price up from about 12:00pm all the way to 23c.
However, with the hang seng taking another beating ATM, I will wait until tomorrow and try again. Will watch lateline business tonight to see how the FTSE and dow reacts.... and go from there.
I think chances are that we will see a sea of red tomorrow again

cheers

Not really the VPE thread but I aggree

Where do i get the I aggree smiley from???????

wintermute · 2 March 2007

VPE is holding up surprisingly well which I'm rather pleased about since it is my biggest holding by far (yeah I know why VPE)... if I wasn't allready grossly overweight in them I'd buy some more

I'm a bit concerned about two of the current wells though, specially the one they are currently drill stem testing, no mention of oil shows or anything, sounds like it will be a p&a. I just hope that they return to the old cooper track record of 50% success rate!

Tony.

Sean K · 3 March 2007

wintermute said:
VPE is holding up surprisingly well which I'm rather pleased about since it is my biggest holding by far (yeah I know why VPE)... if I wasn't allready grossly overweight in them I'd buy some more

I'm a bit concerned about two of the current wells though, specially the one they are currently drill stem testing, no mention of oil shows or anything, sounds like it will be a p&a. I just hope that they return to the old cooper track record of 50% success rate!

Tony.

Hi Tony, I'm following them because they're in bed with NWE on a deal or two. Both held up ok which gives me much encouragement.

Is this chart right

wintermute · 3 March 2007

nope the data at big charts hasn't been adjusted for the 10 for 1 consolidation Just hang on I'll try and do a chart (won't have today's data) in incredible charts.

Tony.

The Mint Man · 6 March 2007

well... I have been eyeing this one for a little while and thought that some good news could come out soon with all the activity they have going on.
There has been a little disappointment with a well being plugged and abandoned.
So I held my groung at the bid of $0.215 and got in today.... and just quietly Im glad I did.
They (SUN RESOURCES at 4:06pm) just announced that "The flow test on the El Viejito #1 has been successful" with a current flow rate "up to 210 mscfd". The update on 3 drills is quite positive IMO, have a look:

Tuesday, 6 March 2007
RE: Shallow Drilling Program Update Project Margarita
1) El Viejito Flows Gas from Well Test
2) Dos Dedos #1 Reaches Total Depth
3) Milagro Well Test Timing

1. El Viejito #1 Well
The flow test on the El Viejito #1 has been successful, with the well currently on a 24 hour test flow period (due to finish at approx. 5:00 PM WST March 6, 2007). The well has flowed at a rate up to 210 mscfd and is currently flowing at a stabilized rate of 175 mscfd, both flows were constrained at surface by the choke size while engineering data is obtained. Well flowing and bottom hole pressures are good and it is expected that the flow rate when in production can be increased from the current level. Gas contracts and regulatory approvals for a gas sales line are currently being sought for the well.
2. Dos Dedos # 1 Well The Dos Dedos well reached total depth on February 3, 2007 at approximately 9:30PM WST. Wireline logging operations have been conducted and the interpretation of this data indicates a total gas pay of 3.5 meters over 3 zones. This is within the range of expected pay predictions pre drill. The well has been completed with production casing in preparation for a flow test. Dos Dedos is the third well in the Margarita Project shallow drilling program, all of which have encountered oil and or gas and all have been completed for flow testing. Drilling operations will take a break while the rig is contracted to another operator, a further release will be made when drilling operations on the remaining 3 wells in the shallow program recommence.
3. Milagro #1 well
Well flow testing is now anticipated to commence during the evening of Wednesday (WST) March
7, 2007.

I also think the following is good news as they will also obtain images from Santos' side of the fence as well as obtaining a valuable 3D seismic survey and they only pay 'pro rata' for it!
I have taken this from one of todays announcements:

Bow Energy has advised that one of the key rationales for not immediately drilling Nora-1 is that the Wompi Block Joint Venture has very recently agreed to acquire a 3D seismic survey (Watson 3D) in cooperation with Santos which extends from the adjacent Santos operated Watson Oil Field into the Wompi Block and will detail several prospects in the Block which are adjacent to and on trend with the Watson Oil Field (some individual wells had initial oil flow rates of over 3000 BOPD). The ATP 752P Joint Venture will get substantial savings on a standalone 3D as it only pays its pro-rata share of any of the 3D data located with the Wompi Block and will get access to extra 3D data beyond the Block boundaries.

what do you guys think?

Cheers

wintermute · 6 March 2007

I think I better pull my sell bid at 0.225!!!! I was getting really stressed as VPE i s my biggest holding more than double any of my others... decided to offload a bit over 25% of them today (at a quite a loss)... I'd been holding off waiting for the project margarita results (and these two wells that were just abandoned), but was worried that todays market gains may only have been a dead cat bounce, and VPE might have kept on slipping.....

The two wells I mentioned a couple of posts ago have both been abandonned, but the good thing is VPE was fully carried on both, so not cost incurred.... I agree that it is good that they are getting the Santos 3D data, but it is interesting that they comment something along the lines of "It is always better to drill based on 3D data" ummmm then why didn't you do your own!! Expense I guess, but is it more expensive to do the 3D seismic testing that it is to drill plug and abandon a well... guess there are risk/reward tradeoffs that have to be weighed up there.

Anyway I'm glad you posted Mint man!! I saw VPE, and SUR had announced just after four, read VPE's and it had no new info on margarita, decided SUR's would be a copy of the VPE announcement, and left my bid in.... I'm glad the close only made 0.22!! The whole day I was thinking.. If I sell these VPE shares I just know it is going to go up very soon after... I sold my MPH and IIN shares at a significant loss in the last couple of months, both have gone significantly higher than my break even point.. doh.

Also very pleased that I should see some +ve action in my SUR holding tomorrow! They got massacred when the announcement about flour bluff, being put on the back burner came out, this hopefully will restore some value (and provide some much needed revenue).

Tony.

The Mint Man · 13 March 2007

some good news just out:

13 th March 2007
Announcements
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Level 4, 20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

OIL SHOWS IN TARGET SANDSTONE DRILLED IN JINGEMIA-11 DEVELOPMENT WELL,
L14, ONSHORE NORTH PERTH BASIN, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Victoria Petroleum NL has been advised by Origin Energy Limited, operator of the L14 Joint Venture and Jingemia-11 oil development well, that at 0600 hours Western Standard Time today, the current operation was drilling ahead at 2,528 metres measured depth.
Good oil shows were observed in the drill cuttings of the target Dongara Sandstone over the 31 metre interval from 2,489 metes to 2,520 metres.
Jingemia-11 is being drilled as a directional well to intersect the oil-bearing Dongara Sandstone in a crestal location updip from, and 140 metres to the east of the Jingemia-4 intersection. The well has a planned total depth of approximately 2614 metres.
Commenting on the drilling results from the Jingemia-11 development well, Victoria Petroleum N.L. Managing Director, John Kopcheff said:
“Initial drilling results indicate that the well has been successful as a development well in drilling the target oil producing sandstone for the Jingemia Oil Field.”
“It is now anticipated that the successful completion of Jingemia-11 for production will both increase field reserves and enable Jingemia Oil Field production to increase from the current 3,200 barrels of oil per day to the target of approximately 5,000 barrels of oil per day to capitalise on the current high oil prices of US$60/bbl.”
“Based on the seismic 3D mapping of the Jingemia Structure and the Jingemia Oil Field production history, the Jingemia Oil Field is interpreted to have the potential to contain up to 4.6 million barrels of recoverable oil.”

wintermute · 13 March 2007

Yes it is sounding good this was a very low risk well, so the impact sp wise is likely to be minimal, but it will be good as it will add to VPE's cash flow.

I ended up only selling 6% of my holding at .22 they went down subsequently but are now back up again.... We might see some more +ve action soon if good news from Project Margarita comes through.

Tony.

The Mint Man · 14 March 2007

heres an update VPE posted at about 6pm last night:

EXPLORATION UPDATE AND ACTIVITY REPORT WITH PLANNED
2007 DRILLING SCHEDULE
As per the attached Victoria Petroleum NL Planned 2007 Drilling Schedule, eighteen exploration and development wells are planned to be drilled over the next six months.
Over the next two months, exploration and development drilling activity will be centred on the Cooper/Eromanga Basin South Australia, Perth Basin Western Australia and the Onshore Gulf Coast Texas USA.
Within the Cooper Basin, exploration activity will focus on Wirraway-1 to be drilled in late March 2007 and the follow on development well, Growler-2, on the late 2006 Growler-1 oil discovery.
Exploration success at Wirraway-1, will further confirm the significance of the Growler oil discovery and the discovery of a new oil production province in the northwest Cooper/Eromanga Basin.
Of the four wells that have been drilled in the Cooper Basin of South Australia and southwest Queensland over the last 2 months, oil was recovered on drill stem test from two wells, Wilpinnie-4 and Telowie-1.
The Wilpinnie-4 oil recovery has enhanced the oil bearing potential of the Tomcat Prospect in PEL 115, with Wilpinnie-4 to be production tested in June 2007 and drilling of Tomcat-1 planned for July 2007.
The recovery of oil from the Murta formation in Telowie-1 provides further encouragement for the potential presence of commercial oil discoveries, targets for drilling in mid 2007, in the northern part of PEL 94 on trend with the adjacent Harpoono oil fields.
In the North Perth Basin, the Jingemia-11 development well has been successfully drilled and it is anticipated will increase gross oil production from the Jingemia Oil Field from 3,200 to 5,000 barrels oil per day. The exploration well Freshwater Point-1 will be now drilled by Origin Energy to explore the oil production potential of the southern part of this North Perth Basin permit.
Within the Texas onshore Gulf Coast basin Margarita Gas Exploration Project, all three shallow gas wells drilled have encountered gas and have been completed for production.
Following on from the initial three well program, a further three shallow wells are planned to be drilled in late April 2007 as a precursor to a deeper exploration program planned to commence early second half 2007.
Further exploration and development success in the forthcoming Cooper/Perth/Onshore Gulf Coast Basin drilling programs will add to Victoria Petroleum NL’s current net production of 280 barrels oil per day, to achieve the near term target of approximately 500 barrels of oil per day with associated increase in net recoverable oil reserves.

As you can see they have more up their sleeve for the later half of the year.
Also, if they have some more success in the near future they will hit their target of 500 barrels a day, which based on todays oil price would mean $25015 per day in cash.
The second half of the year should be good as majority of the wells they have an interest in will give them a 40% share. please see the full report for an actual drilling schedule.

cheers

The Mint Man · 20 March 2007

Some increased volume on VPE today with an hour still to go. As I write this it is sitting at 505032
This is good considering the average volume for the last 5 days was 215632, that coming about by a consistant drop in volume since last Tuesday up until Today. With the volume on these days (tuesday through to Yesterday) being 348349, 262037, 199537, 191440 and 76800 respectivly.

So some interest is being shown, with a couple of good anns yesterday. However one well has had some minor delays due to rain but other than that we are looking good IMO.

What do you guys recon?

Cheers

VPE - Victoria Petroleum

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