VPE - Victoria Petroleum

[RichKid]

Anyone watching this stock?

VPE is a joint venture partner with Oilex OEX (yes! the one that skyrocketed) and a few others, holds lots of exploration permits and is drilling new wells or appraising new ones in the next few months. Very busy, bound to hit something at some stage. I hold VPE, it'll be an exciting ride over the next few weeks as they target very high risk targets- current one contains a 'spectoral anomaly', whatever that means! (although those anomalies have been productive already for other co's- see VPE co announcement).

 

[still_in_school]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Hi RichKid,

VPE, was one stock on my radar at the time, while i do remember watching OEX, go through the roof, and watching the intraday charts go crazy... and thinking this would spill over on to VPE

...my only concern with VPE is the amount of shares on issue 1,588,104,994 with so many shares on issue, and being next to OEX, the share price hasnt moved much, and with oil slightly lighter... IMHO, i would still be speculative about the position.

Though do keep us informed, in how VPE, does go... ( and lets see some of that good fortune of OEX spill over into VPE)

... though, for those who are interested in OEX, i would be sitting back, another broker who im close too, and who knows the directors of OEX, have expressed interest of issuing more shares and options...

... this could see the price of OEX coming down, though i would be more comfortable entering in at mid .80 cents, if getting in on OEX.

Cheers,
sis

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Yep SIS, you're right about the dilution- there are zillions of em out there! It still move pretty well and it is a cheapie (VPE), it's mainly the large area it covers that reduces risk for me (ie it's not a one well story). I was getting a bit bored (and jealous) watching all the oil stocks flying high and promised myself I'd get in on the action once the oil price settled- I'm hoping this one'll do it for me. My stop loss is very tight so I hope this works.

This week will tell if the Canberra well is a goer, they're almost at the bottom- I like their time/depth charts (see annoucements, I think that's what they're called).

Here's a chart- I love em!

 

[Tric]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

RichKid,
I hold shares in vpe. I have bought in and out once with a small profit but have held present shares for a few months waiting to see what comes.
They are cheap shares, but a long standing company that often rates high on the days volume turnover. Who knows what will happen but they do have alot of work going on as you say.

I always try to hold a small % of spec share (including floats) just in case.
Still hold THK since they floated and am trying to decided whether to get out. Probably the hardest thing I find with spec shares is trigger points, past performance and charting (resistance/support not as reliable). Have often got out too early so am working on that aspect and try to view my spec shares as big bonuses and try not to bank on them.
At the same time I have to fight falling in love with them.

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Yep, sure is hard to draw trendlines! The news sounds unexciting for Canberra1A but we'll know tomorrow or dayafter. Reason I bought in was because of the number of wells and permits they have in the Cooper Basin- they're bound to hit something soon- that limits downside IMO. Current price seems relatively stable (touchwood!).

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Have often got out too early so am working on that aspect and try to view my spec shares as big bonuses and try not to bank on them.
At the same time I have to fight falling in love with them.

1. DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK- it'll dump you real fast!!

As for speccies, I set a profit level and once I acheive it I'm out of it. It's easier said than done but be happy with a profit, better than a loss. Or you can sell half your holding and the rest later if the stock runs further...

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Well the Joint Venture Partners (including Oilex) have hit oil at Rookwood, they're pretty pleased with it, makes the next well look promising too- I think they're already on their way to it. Wonder how the market will react- this was a 'exploration/appraisal' well. I'm expecting a surge today or tomorrow as more details are released and the true extend of the discovery becomes apparent.

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

The Canberra prospect (PEL 115) covers approximately 12 square kms and has the potential
(estimated by the Operator) to contain 10 million barrels of recoverable oil.

Dr Brady CEO Mosaic comments “There is a chance that this well missed some oil in the
Patchawarra Formation and the possibilities are open for horizontal drilling where we have
expertise”.
He added “This test is high risk. It gives us a low cost entry into what we see as an exciting
prospect with high upside potential. We will operate the test but then the Operatorship will
stay with Victoria Petroleum. Our main focus remains in Qld”.

The qoute is from today's announcement about Canberra1A which was drilled by VPE last week. Mosaic Oil has expertise in this type of drilling (involving 'spectoral anomalies' as appeared in Canberra1A) so VPE has farmed out the well to see if they missed anything.

So results from two new wells to come and possibly further results from Canberra1A. Only Canberra appears to be 'highly speculative' as it is based around the 'spectoral anomaly' so hopefully we'll see some steadier results from the other two. Today's Rookwood results were good too so I'm holding for now to see what happens- there seems to be some support around 4.4c.

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

There's a mention of VicPet and Oilex at the end of this article, it was about the recent news:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Woodside-skips-over-a-fizzer/2004/11/29/1101577418747.html

 

[Tric]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

RichKid r u still holding vpe?

I took what I saw as an opportunity on mon and bought some more.
I still see the potential in their program and activity.

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Hi Tric,
Sorry for the late reply- no not holding, bailed out after the poor results. Lots more on the cards so I'll be watchful. It's highly speculative but the amount of recent activity gave me a risk cushion, now it's gone so more bad news may mean a plunge. Migh buy in next year- US prospects sound encouraging now that the very high risk wells are out of the way.

 

[RichKid]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Looking at the chart the next congestion zone appears to be between 3.5 and 3.8, wonder if it'll hang around there till more news is released next month? I'm not holding at the moment but may buy in later.

 

[skin]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

Nice result with increase of flow rate and barrels of oil being delivered since the reconnection to the line. If the expected future increases eventuate this must bring about a sp rise. This is one company when "too much is still not enough". Has to be a good buying opportunity - I will be looking to average down.

 

[PLJ50L]

VPE?

Hi All,

Has VPE bottomed out?

Should I get on board?

cheers

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: VPE?

Should I get on board?

Hi PLJ50L,

People here can give you their view about whether or not they think VPE has bottomed out, but nobody (other than a licensed financial advisor) can give you specific financial advice (e.g. whether or not you should enter a particular stock). Only you can decide that after having done all the research that you feel is necessary... after all, it's your hard earned!

 

[GreatPig]

Re: VPE?

Has VPE bottomed out?

"bottomed out" is a time-frame-dependant thing. Do you mean for this minute, this day, this week, this month, or this year?

And it's also only something that can be stated in retrospect. VPE might be up now from the lows of July and early August, but could easily be lower again next week or next month - maybe even tomorrow under more drastic circumstances.

Cheers,
GP

 

[doctorj]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

VicPet is a media whore - it would make announcements on Sunday if it could. It also has a *lot* shares on issue, in the order of 1.7Billion shares. It does have access to a fairly active drilling schedule, but many of its ASX partners in these drills offer better leverage to success on the drill and more promising drilling schedules.

If you're interested in VPE, take a look at one of their partners in Jingemia (ARQ or NWE) or Eagle (FAR).

Eagle is a very interesting drill in particular. There is no "exploration" risk on the drill, just "drill" risk (ie. mechanical failure). Assuming US$20 oil and US$5 gas (as against the US$70 Oil and $11 gas we have at the moment), success at Eagle at the lower end of flow estimates is worth 21cps to FAR and 1-2cps to VPE.

 

[BraceFace]

Re: VPE- Victoria Petroleum- busy drilling schedule

BIG increase in volumes on Friday.
10% gain (3c up to 3.3c) then back to 3.2 on close.
Pending announcement perhaps??!!

Anyone in the know?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

VPE, has the Eagle Soared?

Is it just me, or have Vic Pets followers been asleep lately,

Its Eagle North Well has had 7m of oil play, this was the long awaited well and the market didn't react much, there will be 8 days of testing, this well was dubed a company maker for Vic Pet, who's current price is 3.3cents, depending on size of Eagle Oil Pool valuations fluctuate from 1cent net to VPE aall the way to 9cents net to VPE. VPE has a 20% interest in Eagle, to compare FAR which has a 10% interest went u by 30% after the ann today

In addition to this its 2nd well in its 40% owned Mirage Field appears to have come good, with is 40% partner ITC rising to 9cents, yet VPE sits like a sleeping giant,

Well should be interesting to see how production tests come in,


Note: I am a holder of VPE

 

[powwww]

Re: VPE, has the Eagle Soared?

Is it just me, or have Vic Pets followers been asleep lately,

Its Eagle North Well has had 7m of oil play, this was the long awaited well and the market didn't react much, there will be 8 days of testing, this well was dubed a company maker for Vic Pet, who's current price is 3.3cents, depending on size of Eagle Oil Pool valuations fluctuate from 1cent net to VPE aall the way to 9cents net to VPE. VPE has a 20% interest in Eagle, to compare FAR which has a 10% interest went u by 30% after the ann today

In addition to this its 2nd well in its 40% owned Mirage Field appears to have come good, with is 40% partner ITC rising to 9cents, yet VPE sits like a sleeping giant,

Well should be interesting to see how production tests come in,


Note: I am a holder of VPE

Agreed that there is a whole lot less risk involved now - we know there is oil and it is likely to be of commercial quantity, but will it be closer to the high or low case evaluations...Or will we have technical problems which prevent succesful horizontal drilling? One thing I would like to clarrify is that FAR did move 30% which is kind of misleading as I believe many holders pushed the price down too much after SGT shallows was found to be a duster. For many holders, including myself this was our insurance cover but the drop from this was much more than reasonable and unfortunately it hit my stop loss. After the duster so close to added risk and no HC shows below 4000m during drilling reported many FAR holders couldn't hold on any longer. Now I think it is likely that now FaR, SUR, VPE and LKO are on par with each other...and we will likely see a gradual move up over this next week, then pending good news over the coming weeks. Just look at what happened with STX oil. It wasn't an instant 200%, market is reacting slowly as a hedge against what I would rather not mention. I expect from now on the 4 asx listed companies involved will move in unison with FAR expecting around 220% increase, SUR 200% with VPE and LKO around 180%. It must also be noted that FAR hold 15% and not 10% in Eagle and they also have SGT deeps amongst several other drills this year with the forementioned alone valued at úp to' $2.00 per share or making the stock a 18x bagger from where it is now. Another reason FAR moved up was because of the reduced risk, capital raising being done above market and the newly acquired potential in Senegal which if successful could mean a 40x with no exageration. Whereas the other companies involved have a lot less going on than the likes of FAR.

This does not mean that VPE, LKO, SUR will not move in a big way should certain things happen. Yesterday I bought back into FAR as a 12month + hold at 12.5 cents and thought that this was a bargain. I considered buying into the others but because of another stock which may drop from cap raising with a massive March coming up I thought I might save my money for a certainty.

Regards for now & good luck to all. Remember the likelihood of a successful eagle is that much closer to a certainty and the sp hasn't moved.