Unusual Activity

[el_ninj0]

Has anyone else been noticing disurbing and unusual trends with the resource companies as of late?

I hold and follow MGX and AZR, and there have been numerous occasions where they have released reports that have been positive, however, the market has not taken it this way, and has either settled on even or gone lower.

However, i have also noticed this trend with other stocks aswell. Anyone else care to comment if they have noticed this aswell?

 

[RichKid]

Has anyone else been noticing disurbing and unusual trends with the resource companies as of late?

I hold and follow MGX and AZR, and there have been numerous occasions where they have released reports that have been positive, however, the market has not taken it this way, and has either settled on even or gone lower.

However, i have also noticed this trend with other stocks aswell. Anyone else care to comment if they have noticed this aswell?

Well, the market can take it many ways and that is shown in the sp graph imo. Although individually we may have different opinions the collective view is the sp atm. Many possibilities- priced in and sold as no new news, expecting even better news, pure speculators expecting extraordinary news etc etc etc

AZR and MGX still have a long way to go- lots of risk. Other resource co's have their own reasons, from lower metal prices to uncertain demand, not helped by the recent poor sentiment either by most investors.

If the market behaved as we expected it to it would be too easy to make money. No point getting into Random walk theory etc as it's been done to death before on these forums.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Hmmm.

I wonder how much 'unusual activity', especially in the resources at the moment, can be attributed to big international 'players' (note, I don't use the term investors!) jumping in and out of Aussie stocks as the currency markets and their own pet international markets ebb and flow? It is just so simple right now for those people/organizations to shift Billion$ around the globe from portfolio to portfolio as they please at the touch of a key...

Maybe the day those MGX and AZR reports came out some non-Aussie holders of SUBSTANTIAL numbers of those particular company shares decided to dump 'em for some other baubles and trinkets. Whether the reports are super positive (in our patriotic eyes) means absolutely ZIP to international players who have no allegiance to our teeny-weeny market other than when our shares represent damn GOOD trading value to them!

Think about it. We have seen many times in the past 6 months when the US markets seem to be recovering after a substantial correction our own All Ords bucks the world trend and plummets south. Why? Maybe some BIG U.S. day traders had been salting away a few $quillion in Aussie shares while their own markets languished ... well, it is relatively easy to prop up such a lil' ol' market such as ours and might explain why sometimes our market moves up nicely contrary to the rest of the planet! - then when the US market has a short term recovery, they look for bigger day trading profits at home and dump their Aussie holdings in the meantime. It seems to ebb and flow like this rather often, to my twisted mind...

I guess just trading in ASX companies tends to blinker some of us to just how HUGE the world stockpile (and therefore daily market-moving power) of e-CASH really is. We are truly TINY fish swimming in a BIG, BIG, ocean of money and monster sharks .... ;o)

Well, that's my addle-headed theory anyway. Any other thoughts on current contrary ASX volatility?

Cheers,

AJ

 

[Investor]

Hmmm.

....I guess just trading in ASX companies tends to blinker some of us to just how HUGE the world stockpile (and therefore daily market-moving power) of e-CASH really is. We are truly TINY fish swimming in a BIG, BIG, ocean of money and monster sharks .... ;o)

AJ

On a global scale, market capitalisation of listed shares is around USD 15 trillion in aggregate and total face value of bonds on issue is around USD 30 trillion in early 2005. (I am relying on memory).

ASX total market capitalisation is around AUD 950 billion.

In global financial markets, total FX trades is around USD 3 trillion every 24 hours. Only a portion of this is for international trade settlements. The rest is the world's "biggest casino".

 

[Smurf1976]

...there have been numerous occasions where they have released reports that have been positive, however, the market has not taken it this way, and has either settled on even or gone lower.

However, i have also noticed this trend with other stocks aswell.

Sounds very much like a market top to me. When even good news gets sold that's not a good sign and if it's broad based across the market then I think we're in trouble.

Reverse happens at the bottom when even bad news doesn't send the share prices down.

Anyone who is better at T/A than I am have any ideas if we can expect a serious bounce in the market back towards the highs? A double top or something like that? It just seems too "clean" to me - almost straight up and now gently stepping down. Thoughts?

 

[tech/a]

Smurf.

which charts would you like an opinion on?

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf.

which charts would you like an opinion on?

XJO or alternatively XAO if that's any easier for you...

It just looks too "orderly" a change from trending up to trending down to me.

Thanks in advance tech

 

[tech/a]

Ill have a look at both the DJI and AXO---will do both tonight.

 

[RichKid]

Ill have a look at both the DJI and AXO---will do both tonight.

Hi Tech,
If you do post a XAO (All ords) chart could you please post it in your earlier thread on the XAO: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1134&highlight=xao

Also, might be worth starting a new DJI thread in 'international markets' forum if there isn't one already. Thought it'll help people follow things with ease or the discussion will get fragmented and lose it's coherence. You can always put a link to it here (or I can do that for you later). Both those charts are looking very nice charting wise, lots of action.

This is the the XJO (ASX 200) thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1024&highlight=dji