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Two thirds of Americans predict recession!

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numbercruncher

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Just over two-thirds of Americans believe the country is either already in recession or headed for one over the coming year, according to a new poll conducted jointly by The Wall Street Journal and NBC.

Nearly half the survey respondents, 46 percent, believed a recession was already under way.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0225754820070802


And I for one agree with this prediction!


Enforces that age old adage " You can fool some of the people some of the time, But not all of the people all of the time "

:)
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

"Do yah all have pet Kangaroos downunder"

"Sure do mate Kids ride em to school"

" Wow "


:)
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Well, I predict The Great Depression #2...
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Kimosabi said:
Well, I predict The Great Depression #2...
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I for one predict this will never occur ;) unless something incredible happens like an asteriod hitting earth, that!... would be depressing. :rolleyes:
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Pat said:
I for one predict this will never occur ;) unless something incredible happens like an asteriod hitting earth, that!... would be depressing. :rolleyes:
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Ridiculous! That's like saying there will never be a winter.
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Pat said:
Ok, Never is a long time... Never say never.... but come on, we've come so far.
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...on the back of a massive credit bubble and overuse of a finite resource (oil).

Changes in the the supply of both will have very serious and far reaching consequences.
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

wayneL said:
...on the back of a massive credit bubble and overuse of a finite resource (oil).

Changes in the the supply of both will have very serious and far reaching consequences.
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Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Pat said:
Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?
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I think it's more likely to be a situation like the Japanese economy has been in for the last 15-20 years.
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

chops_a_must said:
I think it's more likely to be a situation like the Japanese economy has been in for the last 15-20 years.
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Hmmmmm, how many people living in poverty in Japan? Thats just as bad I guess.
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Pat said:
Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?
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I think many misunderstand what a depression is. From wikipedia:
A recession is traditionally defined in macroeconomics as a decline in a country's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters of a year (equivalently, two consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth). However this definition is not universally accepted. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic collapse.
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There is confusion between depression and economic collapse.

My folks lived through the great depression. It was tough, there was a lot of unemployment, stuff was unavailable, unaffordable, rations etc., but people were not starving to death in the street.

An economic collapse is possible, but agree it would require some sort of calamity (like cascading cross defaults ;)) and we hope that won't happen. But depression at some stage is unavoidable, given the set of circumstances we find ourselves in.
 
I also saw this statistic. It was a Wall Street Journal poll taken via phone and included a sample of 1000. Nothing was said about where they called. If you called 1,000 ppl in some sub-prime heartland...perhaps you'd get that kind of a response. Or maybe if you called some mutual-fund-belt that just had 10% of their account balance wiped.

They also rang between July 27th and 30th. Immediately after the drop on share markets at the height of all fathomable sub-prime-credit-crunch media propaganda. Those clever WSJ b%#tards. :bad:
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

wayneL said:
I think many misunderstand what a depression is. From wikipedia:

There is confusion between depression and economic collapse.

My folks lived through the great depression. It was tough, there was a lot of unemployment, stuff was unavailable, unaffordable, rations etc

An economic collapse is possible, but agree it would require some sort of calamity (like cascading cross defaults ;)) and we hope that won't happen. But depression at some stage is unavoidable, given the set of circumstances we find ourselves in.
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Ok understand, I've heard stories of the depression when I was a kid. When people got sick there was no help, things like that, no money for food etc. Sorta getting like that now when I think about it.
 
Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !

Pat said:
Ok understand, I've heard stories of the depression when I was a kid. When people got sick there was no help, things like that, no money for food etc. Sorta getting like that now when I think about it.
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Sounds like New Orleans.

Where are you from Pat? Please don't tell me you're in Australia and you see people with no money for food and can't get/afford access to medical services?
 
theasxgorilla said:
I also saw this statistic. It was a Wall Street Journal poll taken via phone and included a sample of 1000. Nothing was said about where they called. If you called 1,000 ppl in some sub-prime heartland...perhaps you'd get that kind of a response. Or maybe if you called some mutual-fund-belt that just had 10% of their account balance wiped.

They also rang between July 27th and 30th. Immediately after the drop on share markets at the height of all fathomable sub-prime-credit-crunch media propaganda. Those clever WSJ b%#tards. :bad:
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From the full article:

"Just 20% said shifting stock values lately have had a negative impact on their finances, while 17% said the same about home price declines."


Agreed, not much to be gleaned from a poll. I think Minyanville.com's Five Things You Need to Know column summed up the situation well yesterday:

2. Glass Half Empty?

More than two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows.

* Yes, despite low core inflation readings (excluding food and energy), an economy that continues to show growth and strong employment, 67% of Americans are convinced that if we aren't already in a recession, we soon will be, according to the Wall Street Journal.
* The poll also shows a dramatic lack of confidence in economic leaders.
* That includes not just President Bush and Congress, the Journal says, but the financial industry, large corporations, and energy, drug and insurance companies.
* Even worse, in the same poll only 14% of Americans say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in professional sports.
* Meanwhile, in related polling data, Minyanville has learned that only 23% of Americans say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in confidence polls.
* Similarly, a full 87% of pollsters say they have very little or no confidence that the answers provided by Americans they poll are truthful and accurate and not just attempts by those being polled to get off the phone with pollsters.
* Not surprisingly, only 15% of news and polling organizations that employ pollsters say they have a great deal of confidence that the data reported by the pollsters is an accurate reflection of the attitudes held by Americans being polled.
* And only 21% of people who track polls say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that the polls are believable in the first place.
* In a separate poll of pollsters and polling organizations, a shockingly low 7% of pollsters and polling organizations that were polled reported that they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that they are being accurately polled.
* Even worse, a full 64% of pollsters and polling organizations reported stealing the questions of that poll and using them immediately in a new poll of Americans about their attitudes and feelings toward polls.
* When those pollsters and polling organizations who reported blatantly plagiarizing the poll in the last bullet point were asked asked how frequently they steal polling questions, 46% answered by asking the pollster how frequently they steal polling questions themselves. (75% said very frequently, 23% re-asked the question, 2% reported having a seizure.)
* Which leads us to the following question, why not simply skip the middle men and ask the poles themselves.

What do the poles think?
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