CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Those things aren't important mate. Come on. They might be important if you're setting up a hedge fund, but I'm assuming that's not the case.
The thing stopping you is fear. Every trader knows fear and there's no shame in it. None at all.
Fear of losing, of being wrong, of having to explain where the savings went, of hurting others.... they're all legitimate. But they need to be tamed to some degree. The easiest way to tame fear is to have a system that is back/forward tested. A proven system will do away with 95% of your list... then all you do is plug away each day with your orders.
Those things aren't important mate. Come on. They might be important if you're setting up a hedge fund, but I'm assuming that's not the case.
The thing stopping you is fear. Every trader knows fear and there's no shame in it. None at all.
Fear of losing, of being wrong, of having to explain where the savings went, of hurting others.... they're all legitimate. But they need to be tamed to some degree. The easiest way to tame fear is to have a system that is back/forward tested. A proven system will do away with 95% of your list... then all you do is plug away each day with your orders.
I disagree that every trading method needs to systematized.
I also know from experience that by first creating a detailed plan and then trading either small size live or demo. Then reviewing what works and what does not after a relevant sample size, will give you the confidence to size up when the time is right.
My plan is to trade small size micro lots first. Then once i have 100 trades or so, i'll evaluate the method and see if i can improve the results. After that, i'll review again and then make a decision to go to my full account size.
This process is very normal for me, i have no fear of losses if i take the proper steps in preparing.
I had the impression that you were always finding problems which stopped you trading, like issues with the internet or platform or whatever it was. Or having to complete more development 'steps' before you could actually start. Maybe you're just an extremely thorough guy, but to me it looks like an endless succession of delay tactics.
Losing money is painful. Losing a lot of money quickly is extremely painful. How could you say you're not afraid of loss? If you're not in touch with your emotions, then they are going to interfere with your decision making in a big way.
What seems to happen with the top discretionary traders is that they enjoy the process to the degree that fear just fades into the background. The process is the focus, and thoughts of loss (and gain) are not operating in the mind. When minwa says he hit a drawdown because of greed, he means that his focus became the $gain, which brings fear into the mind.
Purpose – to take trades at solid levels with the intent of getting into a combination of mean reverting and trend following moves in currency pairs and commodity CFDs
Goals and Optimum Target Performance
To generate a positive expectancy >.35 with an average drawdown of less than 15% and win rate of 50-55%
To achieve an average risk/reward of 1.6-2.0
To generate a positive expectancy over a relevant sample period before sizing up
Ultimate goal – to generate sufficient monthly income to adopt as a fulltime business
Products to trade – any FXCM currency pair or commodity
Time Frames
Analysis – Monthly/Weekly/Daily
Execution – 60 minute
Risk per trade <=1%
Maximum portfolio risk 10%
Maximum open positions 20
Execution method – Limit orders
Stop loss strategy – Initial only
Take profit strategy –
Trend following trades
25% position taken off at 1R
25% position taken off at 2R – Initial stop to BE
25% position trailed on daily time frame
Mean Reverting Trades
50% position taken off at 1R
50% position taken off at target
This take profit strategy, if followed with a 50% win rate should yield a positive expectancy rate of .36
Adding to positions will be considered as new positions
Weekend positions – Only trades in profit >2R will be held over the weekend
Major News – positions with major news associated, eg. NFP will be exited before the news. Orders pending before news releases will be removed and replaced 5 minutes after the news release.
News feeds:
News feeds/ fundamental themes
Live and periodic briefing news - TradetheNews
Calendars - Trading Economics
Tweet Deck
Bloomberg - 5 things you need to know today
Journal and trade records- Ninjatrader and Edgewonk
Initial risk and stop location
Initial risk needs to be sufficient to allow the market at least half of the average daily range against the position at a level. This initial stop level can be used if there is sufficient evidence of strong levels of support/resistance within the market structure between the stop and the entry. This is considered a ‘half wide’ initial stop. A full wide initial stop is considered to be 1 x the average daily range and should be used if there is a lack of market structure between the half wide stop and the entry.
Average True Range and Average Daily Range should be compared on the pair as stops are placed in case of major difference. The Average Daily Range will overrule the ATR, until evidence otherwise indicates that the ATR should overrule. Notes in the journal should be made regarding these two range indicators.
Review and improvement
After each 100 trades, the performance of the individual trades will be reviewed for:
1.) Adherence to the rules
2.) P/L by play type
3.) Win rate by play type
4.) AME/AFE by play type
5.) Overall maximum portfolio heat
6.) Equity curve drawdown
Journal notes to be reviewed
All reviews should result in a series of trade plan revisions in order to decrease drawdown/portfolio heat and increase overall profitability with a focus to achieve the goals of the plan.
Initial capital for micro size plan – 15000 AUD
Accounts with FP Markets and FXCM
with a win% of 50-55% it might be better to use a trail stop for at least some of your position to not limit the profit potential of a trade
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