Trading XJO

oh, that's right ....sign o the times
Melbourne tests terror emergency warning system
Australian news 1 hour ago
Melbourne Police have tested a public warning system that will sound in the event of a major emergency.
3 Likes

https://twitter.com/i/moments/946214010814218241

more people struck by snails every year and now its 2018 eve week and we've all gone whacko
http://511580395457358476.weebly.com/blog/snails-kill-more-people-than-huge-creatures

$$

and one goes with the other
say goodbye mister president

$spx $xjo

on Feb 5th Walter made his first insightful comment and today another:


Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
Feb 5
Short term wave counts on several indexes suggest that the market is at risk of a downside acceleration.

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
·
6m
Yesterday's final hour was the largest hour-to-hour point gain for the DJIA since at least 2001 and probably in history.

https://twitter.com/waltergmurphy

$djia $spx
more things of note from people who know how to take notes

Stock Market Commentary 3/13/2020
By Lawrence G. McMillan
excerpt
Market breadth has been the worst in history. The "stocks only" breadth oscillator is at the lowest level in its history, at -1464.

Volatility has gone crazy. $VIX traded at 77.57 on March 12th, the highest level since the financial crisis, when $VIX spiked up towards 90 and was in the 80's on several days. $VIX didn't exist during the Crash of '87, but when its formula was invented in 1993, the CBOE back-tested the data for the Crash, and they estimate that it would have reached 150 at that time and remained above 100 for the next six trading days. Even if the market rallies, $VIX is likely to remain in the 40's and 50's for a while, as is its usual wont in the aftermath of devastating market declines.

The trend of $VIX remains higher. The trend change was registered in a very timely manner on February 20th, right before all of this began. The circled area on the lower right of the $VIX chart shows when this began.

In summary, the major trend is down. Oversold conditions are at record levels, though, and so a considerable rally could unfold. But I would expect a retest of the lows after that rally fades. The bulls are used to "V" bottoms for the last 7 or 8 years, but that may be changing finally. Wait for confirmed sell signals, and even then don't chase rallies.

How do you see it from here Joules

kid hustlr said:

How do you see it from here Joules

Click to expand...

sp200 cfd we had a good low and i left some connies on the table on friday as we had moved back 66.6% - within the bullish weekly channel - of the aug 2011 low to the high, so that was due a rebound, i was looking for 70% ish but the trade suddenly died and dax/spx both went constructive bid and were suddenly very active, like mid-session active, so they paused the $xjo kept going with no signal at anytime there was a sell set-up, no set-up you stay with the bid...

the contraction in xauusd/palladium are clear signals of large rotations that still need to play out so i wouldnt bet on an absolute directional bet, i suspect we;ll continue to see "sizeable" rips both ways but my bias is BTO eq's and STO commods (with an eye to BTO platinum)
my only open pos's are STO xauusd and $pdm BTO $xjo cfd

keeping in mind the diff tween making a call and trading the opposite way when the signals come and that's my default attitude and is serving me well so far

frankly we are at peak bad news everything so a rotation is due, peak extremes in many indicators, news and mass media
i speculate that we could just as easily rip back north and be back above the high within a few weeks but i would like to see the cfd retail sector move back to what it was several weeks ago when everyone was continually at 20% BTO 80% STO whereas at the mo it's been 65%ish BTO so again that makes me say just too many gassed up hens trying to root the only chook in the joint ...no one should think cfd's are being used as a hedge it's just too stupid given the margin with the price lengths being

i also dont think liquidity gang is that involved i think the moves are from players who are usually quiet, i think once the price action suggest liquidity guys are at play we can look for trend to re-establish itself and now there's a boat load of new credit debt in play to shore up the bonds and short-term lenders
technically chart wise i think the xjo should make 4700's but has done enough and within the strike zone to call fridays low THE low at least for this leg down (simple zigzag down-up-down)
$spx i am mindful that it has just made a ratio of 1:1 with the 2007 decline and that is usually a very bullish thing, as it fits a trend, keeping the relative size and context of a multi decadal trend, ideally is about 2350 from making a significant low based an orthodox method i follow, but, like the xjo has done enough for this current downleg to hold water

i am inclined to think that there is no rush by the smart money to be long, keep in mind the poor breadth that went into making the larger top those players are now 'reaping the discounts' in play and that idea suits the zigzag idea very well, as in, one strong leg down, the hens cluck around buying bargains with a strong buy sentiment (remember cmc cfd shows xjo average 65%ish longs during the whole downswing) so now we need to get to the part where those hens get scared out of the hen house that creates a weak lift and those early movers get slammed and the second leg down cements the sentiment that we're going to hell in a hand basket

then again, tomorrow i'll pretend i didnt write this post

$xauusd
i think we are still early in the sell oppo
here's my orthodox channel and set-up
one i posted and the second is the cfd closed
a lift back thru 1600 with impuslive construct would make me think the sell was a fake and portfolio shuffle to cover margin calls which we saw when gold (usd's) sold off initially with broader markets in 2007 .....but i think i've got enough evidence to call this a monthly rotation south, not saying i am calling it as written in stone, but as you can see i was satisified to leave some on the table over the weekend (even tho some were scaled)
if you look at the silver set-up it was a very good non-confirmation set-up, just had to be refined and look for the first verfication that the rotation was printed, i did notate that i could clearly see all lifts in gold being sold into and that printed in the (red) A > B and the lift that end in (red) A was a 1:1 ratio into C (white 2) at the top of of the channel
so technically i am satisfied i had the channel correct, i called for a confirmation witha momo break of the channel, the channel floor broke .......thus far all parts are in place to say the downside should continue until we see a genral re-expansion of liquidity (not funded by a central bank, that's done n dusted already) when that new liquidity is put to work we'll know if the commods are in autumn mode
i would expect monday to see $xauusd work its way back to centre channel 1550 ish but a strongdownside prevails, only a decent bid set-up would signal to exit regardless of other factors
i dont usually leave pos's open over the weekend but this set-up thus far looks value for more of the same, the bull versus bear convo just yadda yadda, what's the set-up, does it need scales, what are the levels = what is the risk
the number below are to show the margin effect the numbers on the left show it's realtime, the lowest numbers are the early trades scaled out with one trapped that i was going to puke
using the same orthodox method for $pdm too
anwyays, the 2 charts:

Australia, New Zealand farewell spectator sport as coronavirus curbs bite https://reut.rs/2QgS7XP

there you go, peak stupidity signal

Ty for your thoughts J.

I feel as though the people selling at this point are weak retail longs or doomsday end of the world players. Agree some kind of weak bull move is likely (or just 10% swings each way for a while whilst actually going nowhere). Probably more downside in the months ahead however likely (hopefully?) not to the same magnitude or strength.

My thoughts above do not change my approach in anyway - purely talkin' mkt

skyQuake said:

An exchange traded ETF, a few non-exchange traded ones, a few index tracker funds, oppies, warrants, cfds, futs, spreadbetting, structured products similar to calls with downside protection, and of course, the time tested way of buying the exact index constituents

Click to expand...

How can I short the XJO (or other indices), other than using CFDs or futures? My understanding is I cannot short ETFs.

dangold888 said:

How can I short the XJO (or other indices)

Click to expand...

ETF's come to mind:

BEAR is a short ETF, so as the market goes down it goes up, and BBOZ is a leveraged version of that.

BBUS is a leveraged short ETF for the US market (specifically the S&P 500 index)

So you just buy the ETF, which is listed on the ASX, in the normal manner. Your holding that ETF gives you a short position - if the market goes down, your ETF goes up and vice versa.

In regard to the leveraged variants in particular, I strongly recommend that you do not invest without fully understanding the implications of leverage and the potential for losses in the event that the market goes up.

More information from the issuer of these ETF's is here: https://www.betashares.com.au/insights/3-bears-learn-more-about-going-short-with-asx-traded-funds/