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Trading the Bounce

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ducati916 said:
That seems to be that. Pullback over. The indicators that I follow have 'normalised' invalidating the original signal. Come Monday I will reallocate that 25% that I took off
Click to expand...

For what's it worth
"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" & "The Ducati blue bar strategy" both confirm a re-entry on the next bar making that decision much easier as far as I'm concerned.



Skate.
 
Skate said:
For what's it worth
"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" & "The Ducati blue bar strategy" both confirm a re-entry on the next bar making that decision much easier as far as I'm concerned.

View attachment 102981

Skate.
Click to expand...


Interesting. Both 'systems' came to the same conclusion independently. Although the inputs are the same/similar, it is good that both the subjective (my assessment) agrees with the objective (coded) assessment.

jog on
duc
 
Fas
ducati916 said:
DFEN order filled.

Market trading higher.

Obviously I'll continue to monitor the market for future signals. But for the moment, all seems well!

jog on
duc
Click to expand...
doing well last night too
A bit scared in dfen by boeing situation, big in defence but big in flopping air raft sales too
 
qldfrog said:
Fas

doing well last night too
A bit scared in dfen by boeing situation, big in defence but big in flopping air raft sales too
Click to expand...

Re Boeing: true, but with a bailout, they should weather the storm.

jog on
duc
 
So NZ is now dropping back to L3. This means my holiday is over. While I have been working on a limited basis, I am now 100% back to work.

I will update my various threads as time permits, or market conditions require, but I will be seen less (again) going forward.

jog on
duc
 
Did not know you were in NZ @duc, a bit easier to trade the end of the US session
All the best for the restart.and please keep us informed
 
Thanks for your recent increased participation "Duc". Your thoughts on the markets are always welcome. Trade on.

ps: I hope NZ becomes the first country to completely eradicate CV and Aust the 2nd.
 
peter2 said:
Thanks for your recent increased participation "Duc". Your thoughts on the markets are always welcome. Trade on.

ps: I hope NZ becomes the first country to completely eradicate CV and Aust the 2nd.
Click to expand...

Thank-you, feeling the love is always nice. As above, I'm hardly disappearing, just a bit less. Mr Rederob will miss me mostest!

The risk is that it is a bit too soon and we have to re-start the whole process. That would be worse than the first time round.

jog on
duc
 
Just keep your eyes open on this bounce as below the surface all is not as it should (or needs) to be:



The S&P 500 is reflecting the bounce in just a number of mega-caps.



The equal weight ETF is lagging.



In 2009, when we had truly bottomed, and the smaller caps were participating, the equal weight outperformed.



Not the case currently.

This is also evidenced via other sectors, Banks, Defence, etc. Tech is leading the charge currently. Therefore narrow leadership makes for a higher risk that we do get a deeper correction from the bounce at some point. Stay nimble.

jog on
duc
 
Possibly worth a look if income is attractive:





As a REIT it will pay out I think 90% of its income as a dividend. Prisons, never going out of style and diversified across US/UK/Oz/SA. Lots of bad boys to choose from.

Current price, pretty attractive.

jog on
duc
 
Why is this seen as a Bounce

To me its just simply Cause and Effect.
Two Outliers.
(1) World wide Covid 19 Pandemic Markets Tumble.
(2) World wide Stimulus in the Trillions Markets re bound.

Unless the status quo shifts dramatically one way or the other
eg.
(1) Flair ups drag on for ever.
(2) Treatment or Vaccine.

My view is that we will reach a new norm and just bumble along.
Trading will be boring and difficult to profit from.
 
tech/a said:
Why is this seen as a Bounce
Click to expand...

I think there's a perception that the market being down 15% (S&P 500) compared to pre-virus levels doesn't reflect the extent of damage economically and that investors will be spooked in due course.

That's it basically, anything else is just detail. Biggest economic disruption in 90 years and the stock market's down only 15% doesn't seem right.
 


The short answer is that a 30% drop provides an opportunity to outperform. To do so you would need to have exited near the top (or lightened up) and bought near the bottom (or heavied up).

If it is a bounce and there is a further drop, it allows you to repeat the above again, increasing further (potential) profit.

Otherwise you are just buy and hold or not playing at all.

jog on
duc
 
Without Trillions Injected into the World Markets there would have been carnage
along the lines of the great depression.

My view is in many parts of the world this will be a long and drawn out process
without a Treatment or Vaccine. The damage longer term to some economies will
be worse than others,again in my View the US are likely to fair very badly.

First trillions then a slow bleed of Billions as they fight to stabilize. Again a treatment
and or Vaccine changes everything.

I agree with Duc
Trade the Extremes (outliers) are a gift to traders. Crashes and Bubbles.
If they aren't evident or have passed their use-by date we search for
local volatility. When the two meet and your ready thats when huge
money can be made. I and many of us have missed many.

And with Peter.

Advice to trade what we see,
Click to expand...


You only need to catch one and go hard enough for it to be life changing.
Mind you in some cases if your in it and dont do something it too can be
life changing!
 
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