So what does someone like Jersey do? He takes the extra day off work and starts by devoting himself to perfecting Radge's power setups, applying every kind of technical tool in the hope that he can increase his winning percentage... You could lecture the beginner about risk:reward etc. until your blue in the face but it wont make the slightest difference because 'accuracy' is naturally attractive, it's the bad habit almost everyone starts with.
Becoming a good trader isn't about the hours under the belt, it's about conditioning over time - weeks, months, years etc. Whats the best thing a novice can do after a successful trade? Get the hell off the computer right away because the chances are you'll give your profits right back.
Theory has rapidly diminishing returns, in my opinion your best off knowing only enough to understand your trades and not much more. ie. principle of parsimony
I don't think it's 'knowledge' that lets people down when they start trading, it's the self sabotage - putting all the account into one of the setups for example... Jersey has started with a proven method and a reasonable amount of capital to implement it, at this point the only thing left to do is not f*ck it up!
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julius:
Indeed, and this is the crux of where you and I differ. While I can see the merit in the concept of occam's razor in some situations, there are alternative ways of thinking about anything, and in particular markets. I do not agree that simplicity is the panacea. It has it's place, but trading markets in my view is a very involved area. In fact I'd say it's one of the hardest games anyone can attempt.
So, I patently do not agree with your perspectives at all, but I respect your right to think as you do. What I will do is to take issue with sweeping statements like the ones you have asserted as if they are absolute truths. They are not, and I'm saying they are not. I'm also saying now that you need to be more careful about making statements that influence others.
Here's where you and I have polar opposite perspectives: I do think that acquiring and applying the right theory can yield significant returns, and that it usually takes many hours to achieve the depth of understanding to succeed consistently. I do think that consistent accuracy is achievable, and have both done it and see it done by others in real markets.
I also don't think you fully understand my perspective. I clearly said that watching ticks was not what I'm talking about, and your comment put this straw man up anyway. I was talking about studying markets. Studying the way markets trend through charts, a very different proposition which you conveniently omit to address.
You ask what should jersey do? Simple, he's asking questions to try to work out how to proceed. You've made an assumption that he will not succeed by becoming a full time trader, and have assumed that spending time looking at charts and studying them “is a waste of time”. That may well be true, but what if it isn't? What if Jersey is the next Robert Prechter or George Soros? I think jersey should continue to ask questions and think his future moves through very carefully, and leverage the significant body of knowledge that is available, especially from the ASF repository of knowledge.
How do you know what he's really capable of? Maybe by spending focused time his learning will be accelerated, and even though he doesn't succeed the first time, he comes back later in life leveraging those experiences to succeed in the end at a later point. How do you know what's going to happen? While this may seem unlikely from his comments, it is not our place to rule out choices for him, or mislead him, as you are doing intellectually without acknowledging your bias. If however you took the time to give a balanced appraisal, we wouldn't be having this polemic.
Also, you are obviously ignorant of the body of the work I have posted for you to again make such sweeping statements as this “gem”: “...'accuracy' is naturally attractive, it's the bad habit almost everyone starts with.” Oh really? Respectfully, I think this is more a testimony to your capabilities and abilities to read charts than it is an absolute truth. I beg to differ, and I cite the body of my work on this site as evidence of the opposite conclusion.
I don't think it's 'knowledge' that lets people down when they start trading, it's the self sabotage
And again a sweeping statement of pure ignorance of my long running commentary about psychology being the number one aspect to successful trading. I don't know how many times I have answered the kind of questions jersey is raising. Julius, I have no problem with you raising cautionary notes. I applaud that. What I have a problem with is you making sweeping and potentially misleading statements, and I take seriously tearing down this kind of sophistry wherever I see it.