Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
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This is a hair brain idea. :silly:
Ya need to start the plan again. This isn't going to get you anywhere. You can not bet your full kitty on one stock at a time.
My immediate plan is this: I have $40 000 trading capital and I plan to follow one recommendation from The Chartist at a time using the full $40 000 or as much of the $40 000 as position sizing allows. I will select one trade I believe is most likely to be profitable.
Doesn't it just take a couple of chart set ups and some balls and in no time your driving around in a Ferrari
My immediate plan is this: I have $40 000 trading capital and I plan to follow one recommendation from The Chartist at a time using the full $40 000 or as much of the $40 000 as position sizing allows. I will select one trade I believe is most likely to be profitable.
If i could make 50% on that $40 000 over a twelve month period (i.e. $20 000) that would enable me to take the next step down to work 3 days per week and concentrate on trading for an extra day of the week.
Most certainly it is a discretionary approach at this stage.
Funny that. To get to the top of trading as a profession takes the same effort as an elite sports person or musician or artist. Don't kill the dream. Doesn't it just take a couple of chart set ups and some balls and in no time your driving around in a Ferrari :car: :brille:
I will continue to learn and develop my own trading plan (however I'm not even sure if this is necessary if Nick Radge is doing it for me, will I develop a better trading plan than him? What is the point? I may as well follow his analyses and just modify the trades [position size etc.] to my own circumstances).
Jersey10.
My immediate plan is this: I have $40 000 trading capital and I plan to follow one recommendation from The Chartist at a time using the full $40 000 or as much of the $40 000 as position sizing allows.
I will continue to learn and develop my own trading plan (however I'm not even sure if this is necessary if Nick Radge is doing it for me, will I develop a better trading plan than him? What is the point?
I would think trading stocks you simply will not be able to produce the returns to get any way near producing $ to live on.
Why are stocks unable to produce the returns to live on?
Is it because the volitility and volume is not available on stocks or because of the margin available with other instruments?
Making MORE time to look at charts when your new is an absolute trap...
I am 29. I live in Brisbane. This is my story so far. I am looking for feedback / opinions of what you think may happen based on my plan to become a full time trader.
I have always been interested in the sharemarket and property investing. I purchased my first shares when i was 18 or 19 via managed funds and also purchased Telstra 2 shares which i still have. I bought my first property in 2005 and my second in 2007. Over the last 3 or 4 years i have become particularly interested in share trading and moreso in the last 4 months in trading full-time (some would say obsessed). I have done a share trading course 2 or 3 years ago which taught me about trends, stop losses, position sizing, brokers, chart patterns, support & resistance, moving averages, etc. I have read a lot on this forum, am currently reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and plan to read Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom and Nick Radge's book next (or the at least the first 50 pages everyone is going on about). I have recently become a monthly subscriber to The Chartist and also learn a lot there from the nightly analyses. I have changed from working 5 days per week to 4 days per week and plan to reduce my working hours more as I progress with my trading ability. The extra day I have I spend studying trading as much as I can.
My immediate plan is this: I have $40 000 trading capital and I plan to follow one recommendation from The Chartist at a time using the full $40 000 or as much of the $40 000 as position sizing allows. I will select one trade I believe is most likely to be profitable. I will continue to learn and develop my own trading plan (however I'm not even sure if this is necessary if Nick Radge is doing it for me, will I develop a better trading plan than him? What is the point? I may as well follow his analyses and just modify the trades [position size etc.] to my own circumstances). My next educational move would be to do The Chartist course and possibly some other trading courses throught the ATAA or the like. I am also considering doing a private consultation with Nick Radge as well. I have thought about doing a Masters of Business in Finance as I am interested in this area. However I am not sure if my efforts to become a full time trader would be better utilised on the aforementioned educational avenues.
My goal in the short term (the next 2 - 3 months) is to generate income from trading that will allow me to reduce my work hours more so I can devote more of my time to developing my trading.
My medium term goal (1 - 3 years) is to be trading full time and be able to pay myself a salary from that.
My long term goal is to be Nick Radge (lol).
I would like to get some feedback as to what you think will happen as a result of my plan to trade full-time.
Am I being too optimistic? Are there things I should be doing as part of my education I am not?
Thanks for reading. Would appreciate any feedback.
Jersey10.
Hi,
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that you need to forget about trading for quite a while Jersey.
Reason being that you hold Telstra2 that you bought, what 9 years ago, and are still sitting on a 40% loss.
In my way of thinking, if you cannot accept a past loss and move on, you are not ready for trading. The classic from losing traders is that the keep their losers because they pay good dividends.
If you think you are ready for trading, why are you still holding this loser??? Are you married to the position???
bye
brty
50% profit is achievable... as is a 50% loss. Since only one stock is traded at a time the possible outcomes over a year will vary considerably depending on stock selection. One or two big winners could make the difference, as could one or 2 big disasters.
The problem is most people begin counting the winners before they even start and tend to downplay the just as strong possibility of losses. So you visualise yourself sitting on $60,000 at the end of one year, but think about only having $20,000 left as well.
If you make 100% on your first trade will you put the whole $80,000 on the next trade? If you lose $15,000 on your first trade will you replenish your trading capital and do the next trade at $40,000? Or will you go forward with only $25,000? I can throw heads 5 times in a row quite easily - 5 losses in a row is very achievable.
Personally I would be much more comfortable with 4 to 5 positions - then you have the opportunity of going with the winning trades and cutting the losers.
You could easily be fooled into thinking that you have some innate skill when it comes to trading but really you were just lucky.
Good luck
stevo
This is a hair brain idea. :silly:
Ya need to start the plan again. This isn't going to get you anywhere. You can not bet your full kitty on one stock at a time.
If using stop losses effectively isn't a 50% loss very unlikely? Wouldn't using stop losses make the likelihood of 'big disasters' much much lower than 'big winners'?
i believe one of my great strengths will be my discipline and ability to adhere to a particular system.
this has got me thinking, i have just tried to do some calculations of what would happen if i took 1 trade at a time using full $40 000 or if i took 4 trades at a time using $10 000 per trade. Can you explain to me succinctly why it is better to take the 4 X $10000 trades as opposed to the 1 $40 000 trade. Do you know any threads where this has been discussed previously? I think the problem taking just one trade using all trading capital is if you get all of your losers first up your account gets drawn down to the extent that it is hard to make the money back. Is this correct?
I can't see the point in this.Why trade only one, presumably you are going to risk 2% or whatever the figure you decide on for all trades.What if you pick the duff ones?
Going by memory Nicks power set ups have a win rate of 40-45%, don't know what this equates to in potential no. of losses in a row, but I not too long ago had 14 losses in a row (not the Chartist picks) how will this effect you and your plan?
You may be better adjusting your position size and trading more, at least this way you will know quicker whether you have a positive expectancy or not.Picking one trade at a time you could trade with luck (good or bad) and still have no clue as to your expectancy.
You need to know what you want to do.
Either you join the Chartist to learn because you are interested and passionate or you want a tip sheet.I have already given my opinion that the Chartist wouldn't be good just purely as a tip sheet although I know people join just for this reason so this is only my personal opinion.
Are there any systems that win more than 60% of the time?
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