bingk6 said:Hi all,
A few days ago, I came across a company called Traders International who provides courses on day-trading of the S&P500 “E-minis”. I logged on to one of their webseminar a couple of days ago as they were giving a live demo, using one of their techniques (double tops and double bottoms, together with proprietary stochastic and MACD technical indicator settings, whose values they did not divulge ) to pick very short term direction trades (most completed within 20 minutes).
The gist of it was as follows:
1) Every E-mini contract would cost $1000 each to establish.
2) Every point that the S&P500 moved was worth $50 per contract
3) You had the choice to enter both long and short positions
During the course of the demo, the instructor traded 5 contracts (each time) at market price when their indicators gave either a buy or sell signal. Immediately after confirming that the order had gone through, the instructor would issue 2 sell orders (a profit target and stop loss order). If the original trade was a long position and lets say it was entered at 2000, the profit target would be set to 2002 (2 points above initial trade) and the stop loss set to 1998 (2 points below initial trade), and vice versa if the initial trade was a short trade.
The amazing thing (to me, at least) was that out of 8 completed transactions, 7 were successful and had hit their profit target while the losing transaction was stopped out. With my very basic understanding of these things, the P/L on the profitable trades could be calculated as follows
Cost to initiate trade $5000 (5 contracts x 1000/contract)
Profit $500/trade (5 contracts x 2 points x $50/point per contract)
Similarly, the P/L for the loss making trade = -$500
As you can see, the 8 transactions would have yielded $3000 (6 net successful), from an initial investment of $5000, a return of 60% on one night.
Furthermore, the brokerage for trading from their recommended US broker could be as low as $2 to enter the trade and $2 to exit the trade, so over 8 completed trades would come to a paltry $32.
In essence, the methodology has been structured to give an equal potential gain and loss on each transaction and then to make money using their proprietary technical indicators to give the trader a better than even chance of getting it right. I guess if the probability of getting it right is >50% (even if it is only a little above 50%), then it pays to run as many transactions through the system as possible, especially considering the ridiculously low brokerage.
I have to say, based on what I have seen at least, that this is almost too good to be true. Perhaps I had misunderstood some of the things the instructor said (it was after all 4:00am in the morning).
I am also baulking over their sizeable joining fee of approx U$5500.
Has anybody else had anything to do with Traders International, and if so, any feedback ??.
Also does anybody else trade these “E-minis” and are the returns (assuming the same 7/1 win ratio) anything like what I have described above (or am I still in Disney land !! after 2 days)
Bingk6
wayneL said:Essentially, that's basically how it works, but they've presented the best case scenario.
Good luck
Kauri said:1) Every E-mini contract would cost $1000 each to establish.
2) Every point that the S&P500 moved was worth $50 per contract
3) You had the choice to enter both long and short positions
Are you sure, most brokers will give you $5 a point on approx $1000 margin.
the 8 transactions would have yielded $3000 (6 net successful), from an initial investment of $5000, a return of 60% on one night.
Cost to initiate trade $5000 (5 contracts x 1000/contract)
Profit $500/trade (5 contracts x 2 points x $50/point per contract)
Cost to initiate trade $5000 (5 contracts x 1000/contract)
Profit $500/trade (5 contracts x 2 points x $50/point per contract)
Even at the claimed $50 a point by taking 2 points profit a trade
2x50 = $100 per completed trade, which on 8 trades (6 net successful), would be $500, a return of 10% on one night.
could be as low as $2 to enter the trade and $2 to exit the trade
could be??? what conditions need to be met to qualify for that rate??
No mention of platform/data/exchange/access fees?
I think I'd be cautious ........
I use this same principal to swing trade forex. The only difference being that the take profit side is set 10% larger than stop loss. My contention being that less than 1/10 trades will not make this new level that would have made the 50/50 level (if you get my drift). I also only take positive carry positions. I recently had Kaveman code up my system for me and numbers ranged from 45% wins to 70% wins over a 12 month period. Hence im pretty comfortable to trade the system.In essence, the methodology has been structured to give an equal potential gain and loss on each transaction and then to make money using their proprietary technical indicators to give the trader a better than even chance of getting it right. I guess if the probability of getting it right is >50% (even if it is only a little above 50%), then it pays to run as many transactions through the system as possible, especially considering the ridiculously low brokerage.
Milk Man said:I use this same principal to swing trade forex. The only difference being that the take profit side is set 10% larger than stop loss. My contention being that less than 1/10 trades will not make this new level that would have made the 50/50 level (if you get my drift). I also only take positive carry positions. I recently had Kaveman code up my system for me and numbers ranged from 45% wins to 70% wins over a 12 month period. Hence im pretty comfortable to trade the system.
bingk6 said:Hi Milk man,
Just to clarify, I take the < 1/10 figure to mean that once you reach the 50/50 profit target that there is a > 9/10 probability that it will reach higher to the additional 10% ???
Thats what I reckon considering most go way past my take profit anyway. I guess the market will have the final say on that one.
In any case, the 45% - 70% are damn good odds. I understand that these stats were generated from the forex market, but 2 questions:
1) do you believe similar percentages can be achieved trading other instruments, eg indexes or individual stocks, and
Indexes and commodities maybe but I'm a bit dubious on shorting stocks, WayneL could say better than me.
2) were these numbers derived from system back-testing or were they actual trades?
Initial manual backtesting suggested 55-70% wins I think, I real time tested for a couple of months and this confirmed that. I had kaveman code the system to amibroker for me so I could test a larger timeframe and make sure I hadn't missed any trades. The results were about 45-70% wins.
At 45% - 70%, one could almost comtemplate letting the automated system generate all the buy/sell orders (with appropriate profit target/stop loss settings off course) and just check the health of your monthly balaceOff course the brokerage will have to be real cheap to even contemplate this.
DT_Futures said:a good website if your interested in day trading futures in the US is www.tradethemarkets.com
they have a live trading room and custom indicators too, pretty good, expensive though, how ever if your smart enough you can pick everything up in the trading room...
check out there indicators too. there also expensive, but for more info on them PM me, dont pay for them off them, ill tell you how to get them cheaper...
and no i dont work for them...lol
but they do offer a good seervice.
Hi all, I am new to this forum site.
I am interested in getting into Eminis trading and wanted to get in contact with anyone who is trading the eminis markets regularly. I would like to find out your views and what you're trading and so forth.
I have been interested in signing up with Traders International, but am a bit reluctant to pay the $7000AUD fee.
Is anyone here signed up with them?
Any feed back would be much appreciated.
Thanks,
Hayden
Hi all, I am new to this forum site.
I am interested in getting into Eminis trading and wanted to get in contact with anyone who is trading the eminis markets regularly. I would like to find out your views and what you're trading and so forth.
I have been interested in signing up with Traders International, but am a bit reluctant to pay the $7000AUD fee.
Is anyone here signed up with them?
Any feed back would be much appreciated.
Thanks,
Hayden
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