TLS - Telstra Corporation

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
I'm glad I'm in a forum where people know shares or I'd be in real trouble.

Why the eye rolling? This website isn't for hand holding, it's for sharing knowledge and educating eachother.

I asked whether you thought the dividend is sustainable, I think it is, but for all you know I could be the worst investor in the world. Don't you think if you're considering investing a sum of money into TLS you'd benefit from being able to form at least a basic understanding of where the company is headed instead of relying on others spoon feeding yes or no answers to you?

Things you need to think about include:
- What is the effect of the NBN on TLS;
- will they continue to expand their mobiles business;
- will they be able to capitalise on increasing mobile data or will they just become the seller of a commodity product;
- what is the actual value of the NBN cash payment to TLS worth to the business;
- how will a change of government affect that payment.

You could keep rattling off things but I'm sure you get the picture.

The question "is the dividend sustainable?" is not as simple as a yes or no. Without knowing the inputs, the actual answer is of limited use.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
Why the eye rolling? This website isn't for hand holding, it's for sharing knowledge and educating eachother.

Thats why I asked a question but you only gave me a question in reply.

instead of relying on others spoon feeding yes or no answers to you?

You mean give an opinion on a question asked don't you.
Next time you ask a question I hope I'm around to remind you not to be expected to be spoon fed.

Things you need to think about include:
- What is the effect of the NBN on TLS;
- will they continue to expand their mobiles business;
- will they be able to capitalise on increasing mobile data or will they just become the seller of a commodity product;
- what is the actual value of the NBN cash payment to TLS worth to the business;
- how will a change of government affect that payment.

I understand all that.

The question "is the dividend sustainable?" is not as simple as a yes or no. Without knowing the inputs, the actual answer is of limited use.

The opinion might come from someone who knows a bit more than you, next time someone asks a question if you cant answer it just stay out of it rather than just contribute smart **** remarks.

Klogg · 13 April 2012

Not to shoot you down, but there are few people on these forums that would be better placed to answer your question. And from what I've read, he's just trying to promote thinking for one's self...

Anyway, back to TLS.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

Klogg said:
he's just trying to promote thinking for one's self...
Anyway, back to TLS.

Well then lets shut the whole thing down, asking opinions is redundant.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
I understand all that.

Right, and so what do you think? Why do you have to take everything as some sort of personal attack?

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
Right, and so what do you think? Why do you have to take everything as some sort of personal attack?

Because you didnt give an answer or opinion to my question you just threw it back to me, which is a bloody waste of time frankly.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

I think there's every chance the shares will tank because the dividend is no longer guaranteed and Telstra aren't known for their talents other then what's hand fed to them by the Govt, just thought someone else might see it differently.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
Because you didnt give an answer or opinion to my question you just threw it back to me, which is a bloody waste of time frankly.

Yes I did...

I asked whether you thought the dividend is sustainable, I think it is, but for all you know I could be the worst investor in the world.

So what is your opinion?

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
I think there's every chance the shares will tank because the dividend is no longer guaranteed and Telstra aren't known for their talents other then what's hand fed to them by the Govt, just thought someone else might see it differently.

Thanks.

I disagree. I think the value of the NBN payments is being understated (they used a NPV of the cash flow rather than the nominal value of the cash payments).

They definitely have issues but Thodey actually seems to have some idea about how to transform what is an engineering company into marketing company. The recent deal with Foxtel and Austar (and the possibility of Packer selling his Foxtel stake) will give TLS the strongest position to offer a bundled NBN package. On top of that they have the best mobile network and the mobile data will keep growing exponentially.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
Yes I did...
So what is your opinion?

You're just playing games and clogging up the flow of information please take your self righteous BS and try it on someone else.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
Thanks.

I disagree. I think the value of the NBN payments is being understated (they used a NPV of the cash flow rather than the nominal value of the cash payments).

They definitely have issues but Thodey actually seems to have some idea about how to transform what is an engineering company into marketing company. The recent deal with Foxtel and Austar (and the possibility of Packer selling his Foxtel stake) will give TLS the strongest position to offer a bundled NBN package. On top of that they have the best mobile network and the mobile data will keep growing exponentially.

Why couldnt you have just said that in the first place.........thats all I wanted.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
Why couldnt you have just said that in the first place.........thats all I wanted.

'Cause I'm full of self righteous BS, and I honestly believe that you get more out of offering an opinion than being told an opinion.

My intent wasn't to offend you.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
'Cause I'm full of self righteous BS, and I honestly believe that you get more out of offering an opinion than being told an opinion.

My intent wasn't to offend you.

Thats fine but you dont have to approach it like a school master, if you had have offered your opinion first then asked for mine it would have been different.

Argument over... I'm really fed up with forum scraps, they achieve nothing do they.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
Argument over... I'm really fed up with forum scraps, they achieve nothing do they.

They do not.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
They do not.

I'm a little nervy as I might put a substantial piece of the farm into TLS soon, I know it's a gamble no matter how much information you have so just trying to get the drift of feeling out there and opinions in here are worth something, not that I would rely on them exclusively.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
I'm a little nervy as I might put a substantial piece of the farm into TLS soon, I know it's a gamble no matter how much information you have so just trying to get the drift of feeling out there and opinions in here are worth something, not that I would rely on them exclusively.

TLS is in a pretty unique position, even by the standard of former government telcos. They own the largest mobile network (and can charge a premium to use it and are growing customers) they own half (and possibly 75% soonish) of the only pay TV operator in Australia, which will also be the sole provider of non-FTA sports broadcasting, including internet. The ACCC has said they do not have to share that, meaning if you want to watch the AFL/NRL you will need Foxtel, which TLS wil 100% I'm sure start bundling with their NBN service and possibly even mobile. They have given undertakings that they will not compete against the NBN by offering mobile data, but I will believe that when I see it. Finally, there is the NPV $11b in cash payments. The discount rate is 10%, which seems high when 10 year government bonds are below 5%.

It seems to me to be pretty difficult to see a scenario where TLS is not at least maintaining it's profitability. And the dividend is very nice.

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
TLS is in a pretty unique position, even by the standard of former government telcos. They own the largest mobile network (and can charge a premium to use it and are growing customers) they own half (and possibly 75% soonish) of the only pay TV operator in Australia, which will also be the sole provider of non-FTA sports broadcasting, including internet. The ACCC has said they do not have to share that, meaning if you want to watch the AFL/NRL you will need Foxtel, which TLS wil 100% I'm sure start bundling with their NBN service and possibly even mobile. They have given undertakings that they will not compete against the NBN by offering mobile data, but I will believe that when I see it. Finally, there is the NPV $11b in cash payments. The discount rate is 10%, which seems high when 10 year government bonds are below 5%.

It seems to me to be pretty difficult to see a scenario where TLS is not at least maintaining it's profitability. And the dividend is very nice.

Thanks for that, now I'll integrate that with my research method, a bottle of scotch and roll the dice

Sounds like a fair bet though

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
Thanks for that, now I'll integrate that with my research method, a bottle of scotch and roll the dice

I'm sucking back on a 30 year old Laphroig. It was given to me, I don't really drink scotch but this is pretty tasty. My jaw hit the floor when I saw what it was worth!

MrBurns · 13 April 2012

McLovin said:
I'm sucking back on a 30 year old Laphroig. It was given to me, I don't really drink scotch but this is pretty tasty. My jaw hit the floor when I saw what it was worth!

Not to wander of topic for long but I drink brandy when I drink spriits, as a mate of mine once said, gets you where you want to go quicker. We're a classy lot.

McLovin · 13 April 2012

MrBurns said:
Not to wander of topic for long but I drink brandy when I drink spriits, as a mate of mine once said, gets you where you want to go quicker. We're a classy lot.

I think I'm about 50 years too young to be drinking brandy.

TLS - Telstra Corporation

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