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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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You do realise, of course, that the laws of physics dictate that wireless will never make the NBN redundant, don't you.

Abbott, Turnbull and co might overturn the NBN but a wireless network will never replicate the performance the NBN will offer, if it's built.
 
Having gone ex-div the telstra share price has retraced by the equivelent of the div and the franking credit arround $3.22. Heavy selling early this week (reminiscent of the future funds desperation to unload their holding) saw the share price hit a low of $3.18 before rebounding with very good volume buying at $3.19 - $3.20.



tls needs to break back above $3.28 if it is to continue the slow northbound trip otherwise it risks falling back to support levels arround $3.12.
 
MTPredictor's view of a setup on TLS at the moment.
The figures are based on $ at risk + brokerage of $1000 max.

(click to expand)
 

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I was about to put a lot of cash into TLS because I'm sick of 5% in a TD.

However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.
 
MrBurns said:
However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.
Click to expand...

If you're looking for guarantees equities are not the place to be, my friend.

I was pretty anti TLS (you can see in this thread) not so much anymore. I still can't make sense of the $11b PV of those payments and why they discounted at 10%, nor have I seen anyone else who can explain it. My guess is that this is a political hot potato and neither the government or TLS wants the heat that will be felt if they actually discounted it at a more appropriate rate and came up with a value closer to $20b.

I should add I'm long TLS.
 

I know the risks with equities but when I read you can get $170k PA franked from an investment of $2M my head was turned, share prices go up and down but it's worth the risk with those returns and a "safe" share such as TLS but my knowledge of these things is almost zero, I glaze over at the thought of research I guess because I've got no idea what to research.
 
MrBurns said:
I was about to put a lot of cash into TLS because I'm sick of 5% in a TD.

However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.
Click to expand...

I believe the amount is sustainable after that based on their earnings now, however it may still be a turning point either way, really depends if they have anything to invest in or decide to just remain a mature cash cow from this point.
 
silence said:
I believe the amount is sustainable after that based on their earnings now, however it may still be a turning point either way, really depends if they have anything to invest in or decide to just remain a mature cash cow from this point.
Click to expand...

Suppose I'd be better to consider it after 2013 .....
 
Telstra has enjoyed a steady runup since the $2.60 lows of November 2010 reaching a spike of $3.45 in early February 2012. An excellent gain plus a few divs for anyone that bought at $2.60 and has held on (I didn't hold on). Rallying off the ex-div low of $3.18 tls rebounded to test $3.31 through the week.



However, I can't help but feel that the recent spike to $3.45 (before it went ex-div) was a bubble that may have burst. Trading since the start of this year has been pretty much sideways and down. All the good news of NBN deal approval, ACC restructure approval and Foxtel taking over Austar etc seems to be eroded by negatives arround sensis (yellow pages) and the ability of tls to maintain the annual div of $0.28 fully franked. Add to that the certainty that Labor will be gone next election and the uncertainty as to what the Libs will do to NBN and you have a very nervous environment.
 
Good news today on the approval of the AUN takeover by Foxtel. I think this plays well for TLS. If they can get Jimmy P to sell his stake too even better.

Who else is going to be able to bundle pay TV, broadband and mobile broadband except TLS?
 
Optus wholesales 3G. Such wholesale customers can offer FetchTV, 3G, ADSL/Fibre and other services.
 
boofhead said:
Optus wholesales 3G. Such wholesale customers can offer FetchTV, 3G, ADSL/Fibre and other services.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I use Optus 3G sometimes. Data coverage is sketchy and I'm in Sydney. Not as bad as Vodafone/3, mind you.

The value add of Foxtel is in live sport, IMO. Once streaming and downloading movies takes off, exclusive content is where the cash will be.
 
What's the bottom line here, will TLS tank once the dividend guarantee expires in 2013 ?
 
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