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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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I think at this stage the value of TLS depends on what sort of yield you are happy with. This is a mature stage cash cow business.
 
Interesting times for Telstra investors ahead and if this chart is anything to go buy it will be an interesting ride. Over the last 3-months we have seen divergence in high yield stocks - Australian regional Bank of Queensland (BOQ) fall -9.5% & Bendigo Bank (BEN) -7.5% while Telstra (TLS) has rallied +17.6% plus also paying a dividend in February.



Add to this Macquarie Group's announcement, to further muddy the waters, who are preparing to launch a mobile phone business - a surprising move that will increase competition in an already tough market!

Will the elasticity in price give way to a change of trend?
 
There is a long term overhead falling resistance line coming up for TLS from August 2015, it will be interesting to see if it pulls back from the resistance line and retests horizontal support at around $3.27 or manages to break above this red line of resistance. Interesting to watch...

 
I think there is a lot of buying on the back of 5G expectations, as far as I know technology hasn't caught up with capability yet, so to a degree a lot of the price rise is speculative IMO.
As you say Ann it will be interesting to watch, especially when the cash burn figures come in, for the 5G roll out.
 
TLS has been traveling very well recently but there is a big test coming up for it shortly, that is the falling overhead resistance coming from 2015.
I have included the 'prat meter' that is the Indicator called the Positive Volume Index. It is supposed to measure the buying sentiment of the unsophisticated investors. It looks like your average punter has little to no interest at all in TLS.
However the Negative Volume Indicator which is supposed to show what the 'smart' money is doing is going gangbusters as is the Twiggs daily and weekly Money Flow. (Not shown)

 


It's probably worth mentioning that TLS has some headwinds to contend with as there are 6 unfilled gaps between the current high of $3.65 and $5.50.
 


TLS has already conquered one overhead gap of $0.05 but will they stumble filling the next gap of $0.25. Get the next one out of the road and there is only 4 more unfilled gaps to go! No pressure at all.
 
There seems to be a lot of wishing and hoping, in Telstra's current price, 8c dividend with 3c of it being a nbn payment, doesn't bode well for the future.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-impact-from-nbn-in-2020-20190815-p52h8k.html
From the article:
Earnings (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) fell 21 per cent to $8 billion.
Excluding the NBN roll out, earnings declined about 4 per cent.

Telstra grew net retail postpaid mobile customers by 378,000, with 181,000 at Belong, and grew fixed-line retail bundle and data services by 107,000.

The telco is guiding total income for the 2020 financial year to be $25.7 billion to $27.7 billion and underlying earnings to be $7.3 billion to $7.8 billion.

Telstra will pay a fully franked 8¢ final dividend on 26 September. This includes an ordinary final dividend of 5c and a special dividend of 3¢. That brought full year dividends to 16¢, down from to 22¢ a year earlier.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190815/pdf/447hg10wkhltxp.pdf
 
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I haven't owned TLS for a while now. As a customer of the NBN fraudband (FTTN) who has experienced faster speeds but more frequent drop-out than ADSL2, I cannot believe that those younger than me will tolerate the fraud that NBN is for much longer.

I also have reservations that G5 will be tolerated in many areas, including where I live. It's hard to know because, contemporaneously, people appear more willing to accept lower perceived quality of life outcomes.
 
fiftyeight said:
Why now, there was nothing that was surprising was there?
Click to expand...
A quick question, with the financial results that Telstra produced, what about them would encourage you to hold or indeed buy?
From my perspective, I would rather wait and see how much traction 5G gets and what new technologies come from it, before committing. An increase in mobile phone connections and a decrease in income, isn't a great signal.
Also a 5c dividend on a 60% income pay out ratio, does bode well, when they have conceded the income will drop next year. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't fathom where the blue sky value is, can someone help?
Just my opinion.
 
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