Three ducks system

[Stormin_Norman]

Kam, hows the 3 ducks system going? Have you got some results yet? I've been trading it over my holidays and this week and will have two weeks worth of results soon that i'll post.

Maybe we can start a separate thread on that system?

Cheers,


CanOz

here's the seperate thread canoz.

are u trading this manually, or with an EA?

here is an EA: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1812319&postcount=243 i have also attached it to this thread. there are additional comments from the EA's author on that linked page, so it might be worth reading it.

i havent tested it; but will look to throw it on one of my demos soon. please can a couple of other's test it out too?

 

[storchyman]

When Googling the 3 ducks system this came up,

http://www.forexautomoney.com/?hop=lesser&gclid=CKSb5pzOnJgCFRk_awodHUCOnQ

good for a laugh, "you too can make 400,000,000.00 in one year for the low low subscription fee of $4.95"

 

[Wysiwyg]

Backtested the EUR/USD 15M from 14/07/2008 to 16/01/2009 with a 10k account and ....


Don`t like the way it trades in and out when the market moves sideways and buys/sells after a price has run.(in too late) and 66 losing trades in a row is a problem.

Duck results first and then another EA worth a look at below

 

[white_goodman]

Backtested the EUR/USD 15M from 14/07/2008 to 16/01/2009 with a 10k account and ....


Don`t like the way it trades in and out when the market moves sideways and buys/sells after a price has run.(in too late) and 66 losing trades in a row is a problem.

Duck results first and then another EA worth a look at below

backtesting has its limitations, i jsut dont trust an EA where i dont understand it... unless i udnerstand it inside and out i will not use it...

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Duck results first and then another EA worth a look at below

start a separate thread for that EA so not to get confused

 

[CanOz]

I'm just trading this manually and obviously i won't get all the entries as i will be in bed. I will only trade inside the London/US hours too.

This gives me time during the day to watch some setups.

I'll be using a live account with 1% risked on each trade. Trading 8 pairs.

I'll try and post the account on Sunday of each week.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

i ran that EA through optimisation.

did 81 passes at various stop loss and take profit levels.

none were profitable over the 4 year testing period.

i declare the mechanical trading of 3 ducks busted (it may work with trader discretion though).

 

[white_goodman]

i ran that EA through optimisation.

did 81 passes at various stop loss and take profit levels.

none were profitable over the 4 year testing period.

i declare the mechanical trading of 3 ducks busted (it may work with trader discretion though).

Myth BUSTED

 

[CanOz]

Myth BUSTED

If you read the trading plan for this then you can clearly see that it requires a large degree of discretion, in all of the initial stops, trailing stops and the targets. So even if you are Howard Bandy i would think that mechanical testing of this would be fruitless.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Cartman]

If you read the trading plan for this then you can clearly see that it requires a large degree of discretion, in all of the initial stops, trailing stops and the targets. So even if you are Howard Bandy i would think that mechanical testing of this would be fruitless.

Cheers,


CanOz

CanOz,

been a while since i read about the Ducks ---- basically about lining up three different times frames with trends in sync yes?? ---

that will work in theory in FX --- u just gotta lower yr time frames due to the volatility factor ------

try it with 1 hr (maybe even 30 mins) as yr longest time frame ---- then 5 mins and 1 min as yr three that need to be in sync/trend ---- should work ok for short swings and scalps ----

dunno if Norm can test that somehow to check the results?? pretty sure youd see a big improvement

 

[CanOz]

CanOz,

been a while since i read about the Ducks ---- basically about lining up three different times frames with trends in sync yes?? ---

that will work in theory in FX --- u just gotta lower yr time frames due to the volatility factor ------

try it with 1 hr (maybe even 30 mins) as yr longest time frame ---- then 5 mins and 1 min as yr three that need to be in sync/trend ---- should work ok for short swings and scalps ----

dunno if Norm can test that somehow to check the results?? pretty sure youd see a big improvement

I've been using it pretty much stock standard. 60 MA

1.) ID the trend with a 4 hour (i'm using a 3hr chart...woooooops! :O)
2.) Confirm with a 1 hour
3.) enter on a break of the 5 minute throug the last PH/PL.

1% Risked on each trade. Move the inital stop ASAP if not going as planned. In ranges take more conservative profits.
In strong trend go for S&R targets.

So far, so good....profitable.....in the black for now!

Cheers,



CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

its essentially a 3 EA cross trading system.

 

[CanOz]

its essentially a 3 EA cross trading system.

Call it whatever you like Norm, but what i have not heard it referred to as a cross system (usually inferring an ma cross).

Step one and two identify the trend, in theory this is the edge, trade with the trend.

Step 3 just gives you a step to get on the trend.

After this its all trade management in order to get your R/R up.

IF you do this, and you risk 2% or LESS, than you should be able to realise a positive expectancy.

You could make it more complicated, but at this stage its very simple and should be robust.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Put all MA's on the 5min chart,.
1. 60 sma 5min chart
2. 720 sma (represents 60 sma on 1 hr chart)
3. 2880 sma (represents 60 sma on 4 hr chart).

 

[Cartman]

So far, so good....profitable.....in the black for now!

Cheers,

CanOz

all good then ----

i thought the original Duck system used weekly/daily charts which made it hard to find trades unless the trend was long/strong ---

if its 4hr and down that should work ok ----- i guess when the MA's are flat and oscillating around consolidation areas, u could also just swing trade against the highs and lows of the range till a definite trend shows up as well --- good luck with it.

 

[CanOz]

Put all MA's on the 5min chart,.
1. 60 sma 5min chart
2. 720 sma (represents 60 sma on 1 hr chart)
3. 2880 sma (represents 60 sma on 4 hr chart).

You quant you.

Tell your EA to only buy during London and US hours too will you.

Then, move your initial up if it doesn't go your way directly and the retest turns bad.

then tell it to trail the stop using each new SR level.

Can you do that with MT4?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

You quant you.

Tell your EA to only buy during London and US hours too will you.

Then, move your initial up if it doesn't go your way directly and the retest turns bad.

then tell it to trail the stop using each new SR level.

Can you do that with MT4?

yeah. that's quite doable in mt4. almost any 'rules' you can state can be applied to mt4.

can i personally do it? no - its why ive teamed up with a programmer; so he can write the code

im not having a go at the system, it seems logical - just the EA as given above is busted.

 

[CanOz]

yeah. that's quite doable in mt4. almost any 'rules' you can state can be applied to mt4.

can i personally do it? no - its why ive teamed up with a programmer; so he can write the code

im not having a go at the system, it seems logical - just the EA as given above is busted.

Well we'll see how some good ole live testing goes hey, at the moment everything is at the 60MA on the 5m.

I know with AmiBroker allot of that is possible but way beyond me. I would need to hire a programmer just to back test a simple version of it!

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

I know with AmiBroker allot of that is possible but way beyond me. I would need to hire a programmer just to back test a simple version of it!

just befriend one

any good C programmer will pick up mt4 in no time.

 

[kam75]

I've been using it pretty much stock standard. 60 MA

1.) ID the trend with a 4 hour (i'm using a 3hr chart...woooooops! :O)
2.) Confirm with a 1 hour
3.) enter on a break of the 5 minute throug the last PH/PL.

1% Risked on each trade. Move the inital stop ASAP if not going as planned. In ranges take more conservative profits.
In strong trend go for S&R targets.

So far, so good....profitable.....in the black for now!

Cheers,



CanOz

Hello CanOZ

I've been testing the 3-Duck System on MT4 for the past fortnight and after hours of watching the screen every night, I'm having no luck. Dunno why because te simplicity of the system really appeals to me. Well, after waiting every night, I still have not been able to catch a single early move like described in the Captain Currency ebook. Best I've got is a few quick pips on trades that lasted 5 or 10 minutes but this was followed by more losses so that after about 8 trades, I've turned the $5,000 demo account to $3,800.

Tell me, when you guys find the 4hr trend is up, confirm that 1hr is up, how long do you wait and watch the screen for a crossover of moving average on the 5 min chart? The waiting drives me crazy. Is that how you trade?
cheers