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- 12 April 2009
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To be humble.
You know everything.
He talked about predicting price as in an absolute $value
I don't see why he would. Of course predicting price to that extent is impossible, but since he talked of delta neutral strategies, it's very reasonable to assume that he's talking about price direction.
A rough prediction of magnitude, but doesn't the same have to be done for volatility prediction?
+theta
Time decay? Doesn't this require an opinion as well?
A rough prediction of magnitude, but doesn't the same have to be done for volatility prediction?
Volatility can be hedged, rather than predicted... but you can predict (or project) if you want.
Volatility can be hedged, rather than predicted... but you can predict (or project) if you want.
Hedging volatility is different to hedging price.Hedges still require favourable probability though to overcome the cost of the hedge. By 'predict', I mean to roughly predict the probabilities, not to actally predict the result.
Some have no view on price OR vol.
Exactly,
This ties in to my original statement, recently i stopped trying to analyze charts and biasing a position because i felt the index was going to do one thing i felt that it's impossible predicting.
I've even come to the conclusion that day to day, week to week, month to month price action is a random affair.
The only thing i'm sure of is what mazza pointed out about theta.
Exactly,
I've even come to the conclusion that day to day, week to week, month to month price action is a random affair.
I've even come to the conclusion that day to day, week to week, month to month price action is a random affair.
Everything is random until we connect the dots.
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