The Secret is that there are no Secrets

tech/a said:

While it is mentioned though 90% of the world have a wrong view of expectancy.
Most think its the expectation that price will move from X-Y while risking Z in a trade.
Infact its the Cumulative X and Ys and Zds that give a result after a meaningful number of trades.

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Shhhhhhhhh. It's supposed to be a secret.

tech/a said:

In reply to some comments I made on the One Good trade thread of Can Oz.

There are NO SECRETS and here they are!

Firstly ALL analysis "works" in a bull market. Anyone can make a profit in a strongly trending bull market--just ask your local taxi driver.

So if we are going to trade/invest profitably we best be able to recognise that we need to find a trend 2 bars or more--in a time frame so we can profit.


We should be constantly looking for set-ups which point to a trend --- be it within a lower time-frame in a consolidation or a breakout in any time frame.

Most trends last longer than expected and most consolidations resist breaking out in either direction longer than expected.
In the short term we can identify time periods which are likely to trend in a direction for a number of bars ( Trend or Counter trend trades).This can swing the odds in our favour---giving us one string to the bow of profit---anticipation.

Radge once said that " It doesn't matter if your wrong---only how long you stay wrong "

So the best way to minimise loss through being wrong too long is to have either a stop loss---OR a mechanism in your analysis which tells you that your analysis is wrong---quick enough to mitigate risk.

"Let your winners run"

That edge is staring you in the face
REGARDLESS OF METHOD USED.

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I was really starting to enjoy this, next minute :-(

CanOz said:

WTF?

I was commenting on Wayne's post.

What should I do? Bow down and give thanks for your revelation?:bowdown:

Every equity trader and want to be futures trader understands expectantcy Tech....nothing new here...

I'm totally baffled how you criticize soemone else's analyse....if its not a system or VSA you rubbish it. Maybe you'd be surprised to learn something new, something that has so much in common with that which you preach to...

If you dont understand...it must be rubbish.

CanOz

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This is typical of ASF these days. You can't simply contribute without the so called experts coming in Hijacking the thread and proving you wrong, or turn it into some kind of slanging match. I have seen many contributors stop posting on these forums because of this. If you look through old forum threads, you see the same thing......... Newbie member comes in, gets shot down in flames, then after a few posts- leave. 100's of well respected ASFers have gone the same way. I personally miss some of those contributors, learnt alot from then.

Where do you get off thinking you know everything? And even if you do, I don't..... I could give you many examples but I would rather flick through great thread topics and learn something, and whether it is right or wrong I will take the golden thread out of it and do my own research.

Gundini said:

I was really starting to enjoy this, next minute :-(



This is typical of ASF these days. You can't simply contribute without the so called experts coming in Hijacking the thread and proving you wrong, or turn it into some kind of slanging match. I have seen many contributors stop posting on these forums because of this. If you look through old forum threads, you see the same thing......... Newbie member comes in, gets shot down in flames, then after a few posts- leave. 100's of well respected ASFers have gone the same way. I personally miss some of those contributors, learnt alot from then.

Where do you get off thinking you know everything? And even if you do, I don't..... I could give you many examples but I would rather flick through great thread topics and learn something, and whether it is right or wrong I will take the golden thread out of it and do my own research.

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Fair comment mate, i will go through and remove all of my posts.

Ciao!

This is typical of ASF these days. You can't simply contribute without the so called experts coming in Hijacking the thread and proving you wrong, or turn it into some kind of slanging match. I have seen many contributors stop posting on these forums because of this. If you look through old forum threads, you see the same thing......... Newbie member comes in, gets shot down in flames, then after a few posts- leave. 100's of well respected ASFers have gone the same way. I personally miss some of those contributors, learnt alot from then.

Where do you get off thinking you know everything? And even if you do, I don't..... I could give you many examples but I would rather flick through great thread topics and learn something, and whether it is right or wrong I will take the golden thread out of it and do my own research.

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This is a bit unfair considering Canoz has contributed quite a lot to the forum.
If you review posts 2,3,4 you will see that Can oz was just replying to Wayne's post which was just a light hearted response .Then Tech has taken Canoz's reply as a response to the effort he put into post 1...
So a misunderstanding .................everybody have a cup of tea and a bex & settle down

Its Techs thread, my sincerest apologies for the hijack...it was inappropriate of me to comment as i did and i should respect your right to articulate your thoughts for everyone's benefit on your thread.

I will happily observe from the sidelines.

Please resume your thread.

CanOz

Tech you're an interesting guy, go and finish that T/A thread you started instead of spending time arguing here

waza1960 said:

This is a bit unfair considering Canoz has contributed quite a lot to the forum.

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I 100% agree, and I didn't mean CanOz, he is indeed a great contributor. I was being more general where an interesting thread can turn into a bun fight and pretty well derail the topic, or what is worse the originator leaves without letting us know the secret

CanOz said:

Its Techs thread, my sincerest apologies for the hijack...
I will happily observe from the sidelines.

Please resume your thread.

CanOz

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I feel really bad now but thanks for being understanding CanOz

Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students. Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it". The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students. He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity. The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast. If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself. Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?

Gringotts Bank said:

Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students. Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it". The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students. He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity. The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast. If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself. Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?

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I have absolutely no intention or desire to educate people in trading.
Just ask any of those who have asked me privately. Frankly I couldnt be bothered.

So why post.
I was in the position of all those who post the same old same old time and again all in
various degrees of point of knowledge. I find it interesting to take part in some discussions but of course lose interest when people who are looking for help---arent looking to help themselves.

There is another solution.
Bugger off out of here.

A serious consideration Ill leave behind enough for anyone half interested in the Ducks solution
to amuse themselves for Months.

tech/a said:

I have absolutely no intention or desire to educate people in trading...

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I take it Learning Technical Analysis Q&A - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...t=23705&page=2 is all off then Tech/a

Logique said:

I take it Learning Technical Analysis Q&A - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...t=23705&page=2 is all off then Tech/a

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Yeh you can see the commitment I had to that thread!

boofis said:

Tech you're an interesting guy, go and finish that T/A thread you started instead of spending time arguing here

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burglar says +1

Gringotts Bank said:

Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students. Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it". The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students. He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity. The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast. If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself. Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?

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I disagree with you here. I Wouldn't blame the teacher in this case - i'd blame the student. Tech has a wealth of wisdom and experience that he's shared time and time again and if you look over all his posts, including this one, the concepts he's preaching are nearly always the same. So keep reading in conjunction with your personal learning until it clicks.

I think that many students are just not in a position to fully comprehend what is written because they have not attained the level of experience necessary to understand the posts. It's not the job of an expert to always simplify content for the audience - think of it like school; if you've never gone to school before you wouldn't badger a professor and complain that his concepts are difficult to comprehend or are not communicated with clarity - instead you would go back and learn the basics, go to primary school, high school, etc.

It's the same thing here - ask any experienced trader to review the first post and they'll all generally agree that it's bang on the money, clear and to the point. However if you're not at a stage that you can understand that post then break it down and learn about each section and concept - go back to the basics if you have to, ask intermediate traders, but I don't think it's fair to say these sorts of things to Tech if you're not developed enough in your trading to comprehend or draw on his wisdom.

It really is a fantastic post and something I agree with - but it's taken me >1000 hours of reading and trading to get to a stage where I can read it and smile and nod in agreement. You gotta do the hard yards if you want the results.

Also please note my post isn't a stab at anyone in particular, it's something I see written often by the novices. I admit that I too was confused by his posts at first and took them for gibberish. But with time, patience, discipline and a lot of reading i'm now at a stage where I can comprehend what's written.

I'm still learning new things from him and others every day. Never stop learning.

Those that have been around trading forums for 10 or so years are, note the evolution, trhough their own evolution.

Close your eyes Grasshoppers, what do you hear?

Gringotts Bank said:

Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students. Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it". The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students. He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity. The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast. If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself. Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?

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that's a good post, imho

KurwaJegoMac said:

....many students are just not in a position to fully comprehend what is written because they have not attained the level of experience necessary to understand the posts.

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think about that sentence very slowly......then, maybe, rewrite what youre trying to convey...i get the sentiment......the logic does not fit, itself

with respect

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the major challenge for any tutor is that they first need to outline a paradigm to work in and avoid adhoc approach and in that way the student can prepare for the work load too and be with the tutor on the journey as each task is in-step toward a particular goal .......most tutors are never in this agreement and most students never agree on purpose......just saying 'i want to learn to trade' isnt enough

all that energy and enthusiasm to pass ones own knowledge is a waste if the tutor doesnt quantify and qualify what they have by getting the student to reflect their own understanding as they learn......i dont think i see this happening anywhere that is a complete journey that others come and look at and say those ideas made an ongoing difference......

text tuition has a huge limit not so much in how the tutor can convey their ideas, rather, in how the student reflects the depth of understanding they now have in each step.....trading is so distinct from any other activity, the auction is so distinct from any other form of business and (what we are taught as) logical processes that the "experience" part is where students learn to either perform trades under strict regime(s) which can be learned from text and picture alone, or, take on those distinct nuances and maise-like characteristics ......those nuances have different levels-within-levels, oft referred to as experience, that cannot, in my humble opinion, be exaplained in a text or even video presentation....... great card players can become great traders with minimum knowledge about the mechanics of an auction yet many people do not make the transition and wont from online tutorials yet they may from sitting next to a trader who can take them through the process.......

the thing is, without absolute comparison, how does a student know they know enough, that theyve learned enough and in some cases that theyve wasted time learning stuff they dont need at all? At what point does the student realise theyve gone on a merry go round, made a mistake, fall into "it's me, it's my discipline" without realising theyre applying (incomplete) knowledge in the wrong way or even knowledge that's 99% complete but the key ingredient is missing....?

free on the web aint the same as correct knowledge or correct focus......so, how would you know......free on the web is often a short cut......

maybe, what's really req'd is a body that can independantly advise on the value tuition offered from any person of institution......frankly, tuition of real value means tuition worth paying for......

well, you pay either way.....

Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.

When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search.

However, forums are a two way street. If something someone has posted helps you, please post in reply and express your appreciation. Please be generous when giving and grateful when receiving. Everyone likes to know that what they have posted has helped someone.

Forums are places for sharing knowledge, information, strategies and ideas. That is their primary strength. They say that many heads are better than one. Well, forums are where that happens on the internet. But in the end they are only as good as those who participate in them want to make them. Their potential is endless, but sadly sometimes personality clashes, egos and unnecessary bickering get in the way. Please always do your best to make ASF a friendly, constructive, and helpful online community. It's a much nicer place to visit when it's like that.

Joe Blow said:

Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.

When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search.

However, forums are a two way street. If something someone has posted helps you, please post in reply and express your appreciation. Please be generous when giving and grateful when receiving. Everyone likes to know that what they have posted has helped someone.

Forums are places for sharing knowledge, information, strategies and ideas. That is their primary strength. They say that many heads are better than one. Well, forums are where that happens on the internet. But in the end they are only as good as those who participate in them want to make them. Their potential is endless, but sadly sometimes personality clashes, egos and unnecessary bickering get in the way. Please always do your best to make ASF a friendly, constructive, and helpful online community. It's a much nicer place to visit when it's like that.

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+100. So true.
There are quite a few ASF members who have attempted to pass on knowledge and help others. But I'd suggest there are few who have over such a long period and with such consistency offered the help that Tech/A has.
Certainly there has been appreciation offered in response by some, but there have also been the knockers who are apparently determined to find a point of criticism rather than acknowledgment of genuinely helpful intent.

When I first joined ASF in, I think, about 2004 I wanted to learn something about a technical approach.
Said this on the forum. Who responded? Tech/A who said: "Happy to help. PM me."

He didn't need to do that any more than he needs to offer his experience and understanding in various threads on this forum. If I were Tech/A, I'd be saying "Hell, if what I'm going to get for my efforts is denigration, then I've got other things to do."

My suggestion is if you don't find his suggestions helpful, look elsewhere. No need to knock and tear down.

Regarding the capacity of anyone to teach others, we do not all have equal ability to express ourselves in a way that is immediately clear to others. Perhaps try to understand the underlying message and accept that the tone is sometimes brusque and impatient. It is no less sincere for that imo.

Good post JULIA !!!

Joe Blow said:

Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.

When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search.

However, forums are a two way street. If something someone has posted helps you, please post in reply and express your appreciation. Please be generous when giving and grateful when receiving. Everyone likes to know that what they have posted has helped someone.

Forums are places for sharing knowledge, information, strategies and ideas. That is their primary strength. They say that many heads are better than one. Well, forums are where that happens on the internet. But in the end they are only as good as those who participate in them want to make them. Their potential is endless, but sadly sometimes personality clashes, egos and unnecessary bickering get in the way. Please always do your best to make ASF a friendly, constructive, and helpful online community. It's a much nicer place to visit when it's like that.

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+1

I will just say if I ever had the opportunity, I would like to share a screen and his opinion on the market with Tech/a.
"knowledge is no load to carry".
joea