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The answer is not entirely correct when examining the "question".
The additional information required to arrive at the answer Bellenuit provided is ...
You are allowed more than one pass of the numbers. That makes way for the probability factor. One pass of the numbers is a hope that the highest number is not in the first 367 numbers.
Subsequent passes then opens up the probability factor because the probability (or chance) is based on previous passes.
The answer is not entirely correct when examining the "question".
The additional information required to arrive at the answer Bellenuit provided is ...
You are allowed more than one pass of the numbers. That makes way for the probability factor. One pass of the numbers is a hope that the highest number is not in the first 367 numbers.
Subsequent passes then opens up the probability factor because the probability (or chance) is based on previous passes.
1/e to be exact.
The answer is not entirely correct when examining the "question".
The additional information required to arrive at the answer Bellenuit provided is ...
You are allowed more than one pass of the numbers. That makes way for the probability factor. One pass of the numbers is a hope that the highest number is not in the first 367 numbers.
Subsequent passes then opens up the probability factor because the probability (or chance) is based on previous passes.
Thank you bellenuit for an interesting problem. You make me wasted a good few hours though
Oh but I do.You don't seem to grasp the basic concept of probability, or you seem too hung up on the wording of the questions....
The answer 1/e is true regardless of however times the logician gets to do the activity / test. That's the probability - i.e. chance of being right. Doesn't mean he will be right or wrong this time. It just that the probability of getting it right is maximised.
1 : supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof <a probable hypothesis>
2 : establishing a probability <probable evidence>
3 : likely to be or become true or real <probable outcome>
On one pass the chances of the highest number being in the second 500 gives an even better chance of success at 50%.
As with the 37% model there is no guarantee of the correct number being chosen. I guess the only conclusive evidence is to try this practically. One using the 37% model and one using the 50% model.Using the 500 to let pass (1/2 as the ratio) to match your example, the chances of the highest number being in the 2nd group is always 1/2, whether its the first, second or umteenth pass. Just because the highest number is in the second pass doesn't mean it will be chosen. I even gave you some examples above.
Your chances don't change with each pass as each game is completely independent of each other.
As with the 37% model there is no guarantee of the correct number being chosen. I guess the only conclusive evidence is to try this practically.
As with the 37% model there is no guarantee of the correct number being chosen. I guess the only conclusive evidence is to try this practically. One using the 37% model and one using the 50% model.
Three results are possible. 37% model is right, 50% model is right, both are wrong.
This exacts my confusion. Mathematically it is factual, practically there is greater chance with the 50% model.1000s of mathematians for 100 years are unlikely to be wrong.
Just ran a quick simulation, heres the plot
PS has anyone cracked the code on what the computer offers in "Deal or No Deal?" - I'm guessing the average of the remainder less say 10 or 15% "casino" margin (to encourage you to keep gambling)
This exacts my confusion. Mathematically it is factual, practically there is greater chance with the 50% model.
By the way how did you establish a graph with one pass?
sorry i cant really help you there, certaintly nothing as vibrant as ASF. I read a webcomic called XKCD which often has references to these sort of elegant famous problems. There is often debate on the associated blog on things like paradoxes, like this one
http://blag.xkcd.com/2008/09/09/the-goddamn-airplane-on-the-goddamn-treadmill/
I am a sucker for a good paradox. If you want you brain to hurt the "Monty Hall Problem" is excellent, guaranteed to confuse and annoy anyone that hasn't seen it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
And the Two Envelopes Paradox is great as well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem
Yes me too.
Oh but I do.
I can presume that there is a 50% chance of the highest number being in the
second half of the 1000 and I would be absolutely 100% correct.
Thanks schnootle, cool name by the way.I assumed a perfectly uniform distribution of numbers. That graph is what you would get in the limit of trials.
With 1000 trials of 1000 numbers testing all strategies brute force you
get this graph.
.... and admit it is a system based on probabilities derived from trials.
Thanks schnootle, cool name by the way.
I'm going to let this thread go now and admit it is a system based on probabilities derived from trials. I wonder if a statistical probability can be generated for a coin head or tail turn?
Just ran a quick simulation, heres the plot
I wonder if the solution to this problem has applications in other areas, such as the stock market.
Just a thought.
...this doesn't mean we know its probability distribution and it certainly wont be uniform, it is probably closer to gaussian.
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing." - Warren Buffett
"If Calculus or Algebra were required to be a great investor, I'd have to go back to delivering newspapers." - Warren Buffett
"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult." - Warren Buffett
I like that one.- "we're all like Cinderella trying to stick around as close to midnight as possible - but we're dancing in a room where the clocks have no hands".
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