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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Billyb said:
Two huge spread up days (including a gap up) on the All ords with fairly crappy volume with a clear textbook downtrend behind it - clearly this is a sign of emotional short time buying. All downtrends have pullbacks nothing unusual here!
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I don't know much about tech analysis, but isn't there a double bottom on the XAO daily between 3900-3950... could be enough cause for a bounce of sorts.
 
Boggo said:
The "area of decision" (4165/4226) is just a 50% and 61.8% retracement of the last leg down and is of interest as it is usually seems to be the first hurdle in a change of direction.
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Still in that area (just barely) at the close today, a break either way with a cross (and close) of either ~4100 or ~4300 should be an indication of which way next.

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The US jobs data seems to have answered that question. Providing no "bad" news come out to offset it.
 
It is good to see the Marubozu above the 20dMA on robust volume - it may go to meet the short term resistance at 4400. I think it will retrace on Monday though I believe the downtrend for now may have plateaud since the low of mid Sept to early Oct are equal. The only concern I have with that theory is that from early to late June there was also a double bottom but the volumes were weaker and not as volatile.
 
Ves said:
The US jobs data seems to have answered that question. Providing no "bad" news come out to offset it.
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Well, it didn't take long for that "bad" news to arrive.....after 3pm a big slump in reported US consumer credit (DOWN US$9.5 Billion or 4.5%) seems to have caused a 115 point slump in the DOW in the last 30mins - finished down 20 odd points. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-credit-drops-for-first-time-in-11-months-2011-10-07

Interesting FTSE / DOW index gyrations last night eh? LOL.

Based on their respective weak closures, I'd be surprised if the All Ords soared on Monday....
 
Has the spi gapped up the last 3 days?

My XJO data through paritech shows no gaps.

Does anyone have spi futures data?
 
lenny said:
Has the spi gapped up the last 3 days?

My XJO data through paritech shows no gaps.

Does anyone have spi futures data?
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Because of the way the share market has a staggered opening, the opening bar on XJO is erroneous and not reflective of a true open as if all stocks started trading simultaneously.

SPI is reflective of this and hence will have gaps that don't show on XJO.
 
Very indecisive end to the week. Hard to know what our market will do next with no stand-out leads on Monday.
 
It is likely that the last thirty minutes of trading on the djia will be the "lead" into the opening on the xao on Monday.

After all it was the last 30 minutes of trade earlier in the week (4th), when the djia swung from 160 points down to 150 points up, that saw our markets rally 100+ points the following day.



I would prefer that the xao mood/action is counter balanced by the rallies in Europe and holds at the present level rather than plunges.
 
Swing chart of XJO

Although the counter trend rally over the past 3 days was strong nothing really has changed with a lower high at 4232 still in place.

Other points of confluence that should see the down trend resume to the down side are some gaps left behind on the spi that need to be filled.

Will we get a test of Aug 9th low ??????



The SPI closed -26 Friday night so looks like a red monday and a lower degree lower high.
 
The recent downgrade of the EU Banks may see the EU markets in the red for Monday - perhaps the ASX will be the first to respond by consolidating. As far as the chart goes - there is still a possibility for a run up to resistance at 4400. At least thats what I think....
 
lenny said:
Other points of confluence that should see the down trend resume to the down side are some gaps left behind on the spi that need to be filled.
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There is always gaps on the SPI and they don't always get filled. Gaps on indexes like SPI tend to have different characteristics then on a stock.
 
Hi Nomores,

I understand the SPI trades differently to stocks but alot of the major stocks like wbc,nab,cba,bhp,rio,org,org,wor,wpl,sun,ago,fmg are also showing gaps which imo will need to filled which will see the whole index have a deep retracement/resume the down trend.

This is just my thoughts anyway.
 

Looks like the mood counterbalanced plus a bit more. Happy to be wrong (again) in this instance. Panic on hold for now with trailing stop losses and fingers poised to sell into any spikes or to "smart" people buying bargains creating further run ups.
 
Tht run-up to 4400 is starting to look like a reality - I honestly thought today would be a down day due to the Moodys downgrade of the EU banks. Well I suppose there is still time for the EU markets to respond
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Honestly, I don't think anyone gives two ****s about the ratings agencies these days.
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I was thinking the same thing earlier but came to an awkward question; they gave a **** for the US credit rating and the market responded, but now the EU disregards the downgrade of their majour banks.

Oh well, thats a good thing isn't it? We won't have to deal with a tank on such unimportant news.
 
Somewhere important to Australia is still heading south.
 

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Time to panic about the reverse tanking? Seems like a bubble may have formed and be approaching "pop" levels.



It shows clearly on the djia interday chart, the djia opened 200+ points higher and was motoring along fairly steadily until another upsurge before close. Anyone got a pin?
 
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