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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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nulla nulla said:
The big volumes will come on Tuesday when the next round of margin loan calls kick into the sell down. How brave do you feel that it will definitely bounce?
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Yes, you are right, could be Tuesday. If there is big selling, big volumes and big losses, I'm sure there will be a bounce mid week. The trick is to sell at that point - before the next round of bad news comes. Trading during GFC 2 hasn't been that great for my health, but it's been kind of fun and I've managed to turn over a small profit during the past few months. I'm just really hoping silver/gold stay flavour of the month as that's whats saved me from copping a real hiding.

During the first GFC, I just layed back and thought of England while getting raped in all orifices - not going there again.
 
It's fairly simple really. What has made the markets go up the last few years against what has made the markets go down?

Markets up - QE1 + QE2 = commensurate jump in most things, but overall no better than when first started plus a shipload more debt.

Markets down - debt bubbles bursting, followed by credit/debt contagion.

Is the situation any better = no.

Does it look like getting any better based on the available data = no (worse if anything??).

= Logic diagram end block saying 'Stay out of market' ie don't try to catch falling knives.

The China bubble near stall speed - it's just the start of GFC2.......cash before crash.

PS the US would have to 'create' another 18 MILLION jobs just to be back at the same level of employment as they were back in 2000!
 
To clarify, to get to a civilian employment-to-population ratio equal to that in 2000.

For what lies ahead, it is not a matter of pain or no pain, but of how much pain and how is it shared - fully invested and riding it to the bottom or keeping your ammo dry?
 
I'm hearing a lot of these "GFC2" theories. They make sense - but what has been troubling me the most is that no suggestions or plans have been made to avoid such a collapse. What I mean is, it seems like an unavoidable inevidablilty...
 
LostMyShirt said:
I'm hearing a lot of these "GFC2" theories. They make sense - but what has been troubling me the most is that no suggestions or plans have been made to avoid such a collapse. What I mean is, it seems like an unavoidable inevidablilty...
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I don't think anyone's found a viable solution to the Euro problem that doesn't involve a lot of short term pain (and that's leaving aside other problems in the world economy).
 
Well that is the picture that is being painted for me in regards to this Debt Crisis etc. Also hearing a lot of "go back to cash" advice. I am not heding such advice personally I feel that the Gold index would be thriving due to currency and debt uncertainties, so that is where I've parked my money.
 
banco said:
I don't think anyone's found a viable solution to the Euro problem that doesn't involve a lot of short term pain (and that's leaving aside other problems in the world economy).
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It's the type of pain that really matters here.

To make meaningful, long term, positive changes to the "world order of things" would require a level of POLITICAL PAIN unimaginable to the vast majority of pollies. Therein lies the conundrum.

Many pollies would have to sacrifice their positions of power & influence in order to set "things" on a better, more sustainable course. Currently, I see little evidence of world leaders willing to sacrifice their personal positions AND the positions of their parties if need be for the betterment of the hoipoloi.

Tell me I'm wrong.....

 
It is no doubt that the comfort of a position sets priorities of themselves first before others, in the representatives mind; and for the most part, it's true. I'd say there are die hards in the political system willing to make their sacrifice for the greater good, but they are a very small minority amongst the rest. Then again, that may just be my wishful thinking, or perhaps my confidence in those in power.
 
Chasero said:
So.. I'm predicting Monday huge down day for XAO, -2.1%.

Then no news of Greek default when world markets have their Monday. So Tuesday rally?
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Just Monday for falls, hmmmmm. Wouldn't count on that bounce and if it happens all the better to add to existing shorts.

The writing is on the wall, it is just missing the dates.

Greece will default and the GFC will look like happy times.

I for one do not see 3100 as some sort of support level this time around. What got us there, one company in one country. The game has got bigger, now we are looking at whole countries.

Glad I took up trading a few years ago, these are the times that I thrive in.

Let the panic begin and those that enter the arena will either be gladators or dead.

Cheers
 
The markets are in meltdown mode!

Why can't the US and Greece just use Australia's tax system.

They charge too little tax and this is where it gets them! Huge mountains of debt! Propose taxes on the extremely wealthy!!
 
Chasero said:
So.. I'm predicting Monday huge down day for XAO, -2.1%.

Then no news of Greek default when world markets have their Monday. So Tuesday rally?.................
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Just curious as to how you arrived at such a recise figure as 2.1%?
 
All the 'end of days' stuff on this thread is great.

People talking about asx 200 at 3100, If it gets there im going to be buying. Wont need to go far, will just load up on BHP and Comm Bank. **** if BHP hits the 20's im going to seriously consider averaging in.

Greece is farked, this has been well known for awhile, its not like anyone is going to get caught with there pants down, everyone knows who's holding greek bonds. We know there is a risk that contagion can spread through europe, we know that Europe has some pretty significant structural problems with the Euro. Are people losing sight of the fact were in Australia ?

I can understand there are people here that might be much older, and more protective of there capital being close to retirement. But im 23, the way people are talking I think this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for me to load up and go long when the **** hits the fan.
 
Muschu said:
Just curious as to how you arrived at such a recise figure as 2.1%?
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Pure guesswork based on trends from overseas markets and SPI 200

If Greek DOES default, which is looking more and more likely, is the stock market never going to recover for years?
 
Overnight ME trading - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-europe-debt-crisis-cairo-embassy-attack.html

Should be good for a dead cat *boing*?
 

The credit market has priced in a Greek default but the equity market evidently hasn't. The problem with a default isn't just the slashing of book value for those who hold Greek bonds... it is the CDS impact which are not disclosed. Those could blow up at places no body knows and that fear could drive the market way down.
 
I know it's early but the indicative prices on commsec don't appear to be as far down as I thought they would be -- banks excepted perhaps.
 
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