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The market for 2005

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phoenixrising

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Posted on e*trade today.

Au sharemarket to outperform global equities for sixth year in a row.

The annual Mercer Investment Consulting Fearless Forecast survey of more than 200 investment managers predicts the S&P/ASX200 benchmark index will return 8.6% in 2005

For US S&P500 index - 7.3%

FTSE - 7.0%

MSCI (Morgan Stanley) world index forecast - 7.7%

Au well down on 04's 28%

Cheers

PR
 
Re: The market for 05

I would be interested in the historic accuracy of these forecasts.

Any figures on this?
 
Re: The market for 05

Yeah, polls, statistics, surveys- lots of em and lots of methods and lots get it wrong.
 
Re: The market for 05

populist view is up, so count that out.

property market is falling, and will only get worse with rising rates during 05.

equities will also dislike rate rises, and the falling USD.

xjo has run 53% since march 03. to expect this to continue into 05 is foolish. We must have a retrace / correction to around 3500 level.
 
Re: The market for 05

I have to agree with Crashy. :2twocents

Looking at the XJO it looks like its running out of steam. It also looks like its at the top of the wave 5 in the Elliot wave theory.

:brille:
 
Re: The market for 05

I wonder how much past performance can be relied upon for predicting the future market movement ie, the Wave Theory.

For instance, it is only recently that the volumes of people in the world actually getting access to the internet and fast online computer trading have started to explode. I tend to think that the increase in online investing traffic (read $$$$$$'s) from asia in total (esp. China and India) alone in the next year will be staggering. Does the Elliot Wave take that into consideration?

Hopefully that is probably going to be a big whack of money coming 'late' into the market scene that might just buffer any mid year bear attacks! If you look at the $ volumes in the DOW over the past 30 years, the last few years have seen a phenomonal influx of money into the share market. Maybe an awful lot of middle aged/retired people out 'there' don't want to wait 20 years for long term funds or property investments to accumulate! I know I don't. I'll be dead by then ... hehe.

Fingers x'ed anyhoo....

AJ

PS: I guess that makes me a 'populist' .. hehe
 
Re: The market for 05

I agree with AJ, there is a lot of money being pumped into the market, more than ever before. Just look at the growth that this site has experienced to see how many people are getting into shares. More than 50% of the country are into it now. And with SGC, there is heaps of money from super coming into the market too each year...I can't see a crash, but maybe a stagnent year of zero growth, thats my tip anyway. No doubt that the gains of the past 18 months have been excessive, it probably represents some reclaimed from previous years, and some stolen from 2005. Time will tell.
 
Re: The market for 05

A 1% fall in ANYTHING isnt mind numbing.

I agree that interest is and has been increasing in the market for many years.
Thats not likely to change for the many reasons already suggested.Just checkout the turnover on the DJI for the last 10 yrs!

There will ALWAYS be companies that outperform the Market.
Trick is to find them and join them on their journey.

Dang thats simple!
 

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