The Future of Warfare: An Economic/Investment Perspective

[wayneL]

There is no doubt that warfare has been a very important factor from an economic perspective both in terms of building up and destroying economies.

Observing the discussion on submarines in the other thread and their apparent obsolescence as an effective warfare/deterrence tool, it got me thinking about the future of warfare and the purported military industrial complex.

There is no doubt that we are in a cold war with China and perhaps Russia and at least in my mind, the potential for the cold war to turn hot is something more than average probability.

We plebeians have no control over that eventuality, so must somehow protect ourselves financially from that prospect.

So my question is what would a future war look like if Australia was involved... I have trouble envisaging a nuclear conflict as that would be basically humanity committing collective seppuku.

I think there is a possibility of a different sort of war. If so, what form could it take and how can we position ourselves here in Oz to hedge against that, and how might we actually prosper in that eventuality?

I realise I am invoking something which is subject to chaos theory... So many impossible to know factors and unknowns, but I do think it us something worth considering from an economic and financial perspective.

<Edited to correct tiresome autocorrects>

 

[qldfrog]

There is no doubt that warfare has been a very important factor from an economic perspective both in terms of building up and destroying economies.

Observing the discussion on submarines in the other thread and their apparent obsolescence as an effective warfare/deterrence tool, it got me thinking about the future of warfare and the purported military industrial complex.

There is no doubt that we are in a cold war with China and perhaps Russia and at least in my mind, the potential for the cold war to turn hot is something more than average probability.

We plebeians have no control over that eventuality, so must somehow protect ourselves financially from that prospect.

So my question is what would a future war look like if Australia was involved... I have trouble envisaging a nuclear conflict as that would be basically humanity committing collective seppuku.

I think there is a possibility of a different sort of war. If so, what form could it take and how can we position ourselves here in Oz to hedge against that, and how might we actually prosper in that eventuality?

I realise I am invoking something which is subject to chaos theory... So many impossible to know factors and unknowns, but I do think it us something worth considering from an economic and financial perspective.

<Edited to correct tiresome autocorrects>

Think about internet down, power grid out and full cyberattack chaos.
This is the not too hotwar scenario but much worse than cold war..with real hot war odds.
So how you protect yourself:
GTFO..get the **** out to a country not involved...., get physical goods PM cash notes and live in a self sufficient way so that you do not starve if power is out for a week

 

[qldfrog]

There is no doubt that warfare has been a very important factor from an economic perspective both in terms of building up and destroying economies.

Observing the discussion on submarines in the other thread and their apparent obsolescence as an effective warfare/deterrence tool, it got me thinking about the future of warfare and the purported military industrial complex.

There is no doubt that we are in a cold war with China and perhaps Russia and at least in my mind, the potential for the cold war to turn hot is something more than average probability.

We plebeians have no control over that eventuality, so must somehow protect ourselves financially from that prospect.

So my question is what would a future war look like if Australia was involved... I have trouble envisaging a nuclear conflict as that would be basically humanity committing collective seppuku.

I think there is a possibility of a different sort of war. If so, what form could it take and how can we position ourselves here in Oz to hedge against that, and how might we actually prosper in that eventuality?

I realise I am invoking something which is subject to chaos theory... So many impossible to know factors and unknowns, but I do think it us something worth considering from an economic and financial perspective.

<Edited to correct tiresome autocorrects>

Think about internet down, power grid out and full cyberattack chaos.
This is the not too hotwar scenario but much worse than cold war..with real hot war odds.
So how you protect yourself:
GTFO..get the **** out to a country not involved...., get physical goods PM cash notes and live in a self sufficient way so that you do not starve if power is out for a wee

 

[qldfrog]

Think about internet down, power grid out and full cyberattack chaos.
This is the not too hotwar scenario but much worse than cold war..with real hot war odds.
So how you protect yourself:
GTFO..get the **** out to a country not involved...., get physical goods PM cash notes and live in a self sufficient way so that you do not starve if power is out for a wee

Easier said than done

 

[Sean K]

Hard to imagine another world war but it's pretty much inevitable. We are human after all. Not sure if we're there yet. The only reason why we haven't had one since WW2 is nuclear weapons and MAD. Maybe that is still enough of a deterrent to prevent another one. Could there be a WW without one of the nuclear powers using them as a last resort or by error?

The major change since past major conflict is the reliance on electrical power and the computer chip. The first targets, after air defence, will be power distribution and computer networks. I think the producers of small generators will do well. Could all cyber networks be destroyed by an enemy or can we have backdoors / alternate closed systems that we can use without interdiction? Our defence cyber networks are pretty secure but I think the rest of us will be in trouble. Trading shares at home is going to be difficult I think.

Most likely eventuation I think is a limited war with no nukes within the perimeter of China's 9 dash line. I think China has shown its cards too early and has forced a very wide coalition to form against them. Would any of the countries around the SCS side with China? I think they're in trouble if they fire the first shot.

 

[SirRumpole]

Maybe a biological war in which an aggressor vaccinates its own population then lets a virus loose.

Hard to imagine anyone would do that but in a doomsday scenario, who knows.

And of course we've heard the stuff about robotic soldiers, not beyond the realms of possibility for a country to get a huge lead in this area, then sit back and let its mechanical men do what they want.

 

[sptrawler]

Fuel and electricity, would be the main problem, as they leave the country immobile and in social chaos. We have very few fuel refineries and they could well be targeted, then the major highways are bombed to disrupt the transportation of food and essential supplies (toilet paper lol). Next hit the gas pipeline network and the power stations.
Imagine having very little fuel, which would be rationed, so a generator is useless, also suppliers of logistical transportation and the military would get priority to any available fuel.
Those is country towns would probably revert back to burning wood and those who live in central city high rise apartments, well their biggest problem would be lack of water and sewage and the lifts not working, I definitely think heading for the hills would be the go.

What to invest in? probably a really good relationship with the U.K and the U.S, failing that a really good teach yourself mandarin course. ?

 

[Sean K]

Maybe a biological war in which an aggressor vaccinates its own population then lets a virus loose.

Hard to imagine anyone would do that but in a doomsday scenario, who knows.

Isn't that currently being trialled?

 

[qldfrog]

Isn't that currently being trialled?

And you do not need to vaccinate your population say for example only, you make sure the virus affect only a race or just everyone but let's call him Han...
But @SirRumpole was obviously going for irony, everyone not acrazy conspiracy/antivax or Trump mad hatter knows that the virus comes from tropical bats which were doing winter sport in Wuhan...That is the WHO validated story isnt it Uncle Xi?
Not some silly lab story...

 

[Craton]

There is no doubt that warfare has been a very important factor from an economic perspective both in terms of building up and destroying economies. Observing the discussion on submarines in the other thread and their apparent obsolescence as an effective warfare/deterrence tool, it got me thinking about the future of warfare and the purported military industrial complex. There is no doubt that we are in a cold war with China and perhaps Russia and at least in my mind, the potential for the cold war to turn hot is something more than average probability. We plebeians have no control over that eventuality, so must somehow protect ourselves financially from that prospect. So my question is what would a future war look like if Australia was involved... I have trouble envisaging a nuclear conflict as that would be basically humanity committing collective seppuku. I think there is a possibility of a different sort of war. If so, what form could it take and how can we position ourselves here in Oz to hedge against that, and how might we actually prosper in that eventuality? I realise I am invoking something which is subject to chaos theory... So many impossible to know factors and unknowns, but I do think it us something worth considering from an economic and financial perspective. <Edited to correct tiresome autocorrects> In all out war, I've pondered the survival factor more so than $$$ side of the equation. Living in a mining town with large underground operations, I've always thought that underground could be not only a source of protection but also a sanctuary as well. If war does break out, I'd be curious to know what Monsanto's strategies might look like. Interesting, monsanto.com leads to the URL provided in the link. My take on this would be that industries that provide autonomous mechanics aka drones/robotics and AI would be high on the list to invest in. Couple that to fuel cell (hydrogen and battery) and related industries, yep, even nuclear fuels. Hydroponics might be worth considering too coupled to organic food/fertilizer. Water no doubt would need to be secured and "affordable". Also, high nutrition value foods like bush tucker (native grasses, acacia seeds), indigenous medicine and engineering might be required if said war turns real ugly. That being said, we are already at war in the cyber space, China's recent crack down on crypto-mining is a case in point. We have trade wars and we have diplomatic wars as well so war is simply a part of the human existence. War as a conflict on a global scale seems almost unimaginable but you know what they say, never say never. Especially because a religious war (China funding the Tailban and hence Sharia law) more so than a state against state war appears to be more likely. I do think one of the biggest unknowns is what will the govt. of the day legislate to safe guard some semblance of normality. One thing is for certain though, we will need to help each other like never before...

 

[Smurf1976]

Think about internet down, power grid out and full cyberattack chaos.

Energy is the master resource.

At the risk of quoting a very old advertisement "when the power stops, everything stops" and indeed it does.

Electricity. Diesel. Food.

If you don't have those then you're stuffed noting that sustained loss of any one of the three means ultimate loss of all three.

Power grid fails = in due course liquid fuels and food supply fails.

Diesel supply fails = in due course electricity and food supply fails.

A century ago perhaps not but as of 2021 that's the reality.

Closely related to that are things like communications and water. They're also critical and without energy they stop working.

Transport? No energy and it stops working.

Military? If you don't have fuel then it's a technicality that you've got some fancy looking vehicles with green paint on them. They ain't going anywhere without fuel.

If you want to cripple any country just knock out the energy supply and you're well on the way.

 

[qldfrog]

Energy is the master resource.

At the risk of quoting a very old advertisement "when the power stops, everything stops" and indeed it does.

Electricity. Diesel. Food.

If you don't have those then you're stuffed noting that sustained loss of any one of the three means ultimate loss of all three.

Power grid fails = in due course liquid fuels and food supply fails.

Diesel supply fails = in due course electricity and food supply fails.

A century ago perhaps not but as of 2021 that's the reality.

Closely related to that are things like communications and water. They're also critical and without energy they stop working.

Transport? No energy and it stops working.

Military? If you don't have fuel then it's a technicality that you've got some fancy looking vehicles with green paint on them. They ain't going anywhere without fuel.

If you want to cripple any country just knock out the energy supply and you're well on the way.

Fully agree, i think that is the key element between cold and hot war..
If oil tankers can not arrive due to blockades by foreign country.. that's hot war ...if cyber hackers destroy refinery plant,that cold war.
But even last part can be nasty..and here we rely on Singapore..
Think about it....pathetic isn't it..
A single town state without any self sufficiency in fóod water energy? and coms is what makes the difference between sydney starving or not.
Sure we can reroute tankers but these were already going somewhere and they are not fast just Singapore down and we need rationing here and probably power and internet cut.
We are dead ducks...
As i own land and gun, and water, we should be ok food wise, but forget about the Frog systems or his assets on the NYSE/ASX...
And let's not fall sick...

 

[Sean K]

With the inevitable build up of defence capability and reliance on sovereign/friendly states supply of materials, there's some industries that should do well economically, particularly those with rare assets, capacity and capabilities.

Have these stocks and businesses been listed elsewhere?

 

[wayneL]

This has been a great thread, thanks for the input, chaps.

I think Australia is a country that would be very easily disabled, hence thinking about how to navigate that... Sensibly.

And may start to hedge my bets and learn a few phrases in Mandarin, such as 先生，你要吃薯条吗

 

[sptrawler]

Fully agree, i think that is the key element between cold and hot war..
If oil tankers can not arrive due to blockades by foreign country.. that's hot war ...if cyber hackers destroy refinery plant,that cold war.
But even last part can be nasty..and here we rely on Singapore..
Think about it....pathetic isn't it..
A single town state without any self sufficiency in fóod water energy? and coms is what makes the difference between sydney starving or not.
Sure we can reroute tankers but these were already going somewhere and they are not fast just Singapore down and we need rationing here and probably power and internet cut.
We are dead ducks...
As i own land and gun, and water, we should be ok food wise, but forget about the Frog systems or his assets on the NYSE/ASX...
And let's not fall sick...

The first thing people would notice if the power system went down, would be their sewage would back up and probably flow out of the pan, in a lot of places as it is mostly pumped. There are a lot of houses lower than the sewage treatment plants. ?

 

[qldfrog]

The first thing people would notice if the power system went down, would be their sewage would back up and probably flow out of the pan, in a lot of places as it is mostly pumped. There are a lot of houses lower than the sewage treatment plants. ?

The beauty of living up a hill....
And be able to look at the mushroom clouds rising in the distance over capital cities, with purple EM bombs cloud electrical storms against the dark ash clouds
Purple only for literary licence..not sciences..a poet always., the frog....