In response to posts in another thread which mentioned the closure of Liddell power station (NSW) in 2022 I thought it would be useful to put it all into perspective in terms of the impact of these closures.
So I've listed for each relevant National Electricity Market state the year of maximum installed generating capacity and deemed this to be 100% as the starting point. Subsequent years indicate what % of that capacity is expected to still be working at that time.
All years are as at 31 December and all plant ratings are based on Summer conditions which take the impact of higher temperatures into account.
I have also indicated the basis of projections. It's either actual historic data, is based on what has been publicly announced or is my estimate. Since the vast majority of generation owners have not announced their long term intentions to anyone, a degree of crystal ball gazing is unavoidable and for that I have assumed that each generating unit operates for its full technical life and performs in the manner typically expected for that type of equipment in terms of lifespan.
So the figures are the % of "original" (pre-closures) capacity still operating by that time.
NSW:
2011 = 100%
2017 = 85% (so 15% of the capacity we had in the peak year, 2011, is now closed)
2022 = 75% (based on publicly announced closures)
2029 = 67% (my estimate)
2034 = 50% (my estimate)
2035 = 35% (part of which is due to publicly announced closures)
2043 = 27% (the end of coal-fired generation in NSW in the absence of new plant being built)
Qld:
2010 = 100% (actual)
2017 = 93% (actual)
2018 = 96% (publicly announced)
2021 = 95% (publicly announced)
2026 = 82% (my estimate)
2034 = 70% (my estimate)
2038 = 65% (my estimate)
2043 = 53% (my estimate)
Vic:
2010 = 100% (actual)
2017 = 82% (actual)
2019 = 83% (publicly announced)
2023 = 77% (my estimate based on condition of a particular plant that's very widely rumoured in the industry but not publicly announced)
2030 = 72% (my estimate)
2031 = 66% (my estimate)
2034 = 61% (my estimate)
2035 = 56% (my estimate)
2036 = 51% (my estimate)
2038 = 46% (my estimate)
2039 = 45% (my estimate)
2040 = 43% (my estimate)
2043 = 38% (my estimate)
2046 = 33% (my estimate and the end of coal-fired generation in Vic - for the record AGL has publicly announced "by 2050" which broadly aligns with my attempt to be more precise)
SA:
2010 = 100%
2016 = 79% (actual, noted due to the well known problems)
2017 = 91% (due to the new diesel-fired gas turbines and battery)
2019 = 90% (publicly announced)
2021 = 87% (my estimate)
2023 = 83% (my estimate)
2027 = 78% (my estimate)
2029 = 72% (my estimate)
2031 = 67% (my estimate)
2033 = 58% (my estimate)
2038 = 56% (my estimate)
2044 = 54% (my estimate)
In the context of all that I will point out that any
economical replacement will take typically 5 - 15 years to go from concept to generation. Certainly things like diesels can be done quickly but that's a sure fire way to go broke with the running costs.
SA with its large wind and solar resources, modest demand most of the time and potential for individual pumped hydro schemes (or anything else) to make a meaningful impact is perhaps in the best position when it comes to finding a way forward.
At the other extreme NSW has one almighty problem to sort out if they don't want to end up either in the dark or spending $ billions on diesel fuel. Two thirds of all present generating capacity gone in 20 or so years and most of what remains is peaking plant not capable of sustained high output anyway. So they're pretty much starting from scratch, rebuilding the entire industry, and without the wind resources that SA has which is only going to make it harder.
I left WA and NT out of the list since they're not part of the NEM. I left Tas out since there are no likely plant closures in that state over the next 30 years apart from possibly some gas-fired plant which may become redundant (not worn out but simply redundant - it's a plausible outcome).
As a summary of it all:
Vic and SA = in trouble now.
SA is sort-of buying its way out, at high cost, assuming they can actually pull off their "closing the border" approach and that everything works 100% perfectly at a technical level. In practice they'll still have problems just nowhere near as often.
Vic doing pretty much nothing and that's where the next crisis is likely to be.
NSW OK for the moment but in serious **** five years from now and there's not enough time left to fix that in an economical manner. It's no secret that Liddell is patched up and limping along as it is so delaying the closure isn't a likely option. That's assuming it actually makes it through to 2022 of course - it's not in good shape that's no secret.
Qld is a decade away from any major problems but all that means is there's just enough time to build a solution if we get on with it ASAP.
Not much to worry about in WA as long as the gas keeps flowing and the coal mines don't go broke. That bit about mines going broke is serious by the way - it's a risk certainly.
NT all good as long as they've got gas to run their power stations with.
Tas all good as long as it rains.
Biggest problem with it all is the complete lack of planning.
Northern (SA) had another 20 years left in it when it closed. It wasn't old by any measure.
Anglesea (Vic) could have gone at least another 5 years.
Wallerawang (NSW) was big, 1000 MW, and could have gone another 10 - 15 years pretty easily but it was closed instead.
Fail to plan = plan to fail.