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The future of energy generation and storage


The figures just don't add up do they ? Building a small nuclear power station is great for the company doing the building.
Absolutely RS for people/companies having to pay for it.
 


Not really comparing apples with apples UK has long been a nuclear power so nuclear generation makes sense (still very expensive) as far as I know its always been supported by both parties plus their base load is significant so can build larger scale units (assumption).

Australia on the other hand has long been anti nuclear (not arguing the merits) has no production technology or capability and now nuclear energy lobby supported shrills telling us it will be fast and cheaper which is total BS.

I am not saying we shouldn't have nuclear generation but the current politics over it is just dumb IMHO.
 
I agree with you, I was just highlighting how the situation drives the politics and the narrative, if it eventuates that nuclear is indeed needed in Australia the narrative will turn 180 degrees.
At the moment nothing is being debated in a sensible manner by either side of politics IMO, both sides are treating the issue and their preferance as an all or nothing solution, which isn't helpful to the general public.
The more open and accurate the debate, the more likelyhood of a good outcome, at the moment the general public are ill informed and nervous.
 
The more open and accurate the debate, the more likelyhood of a good outcome, at the moment the general public are ill informed and nervous.

And if the politicians had confidence that their side of the debate is correct they would de-politicise it by handing over the decisions to a panel of experts rather than religiously sticking to their own agendas.

It's the only way I can see to get us out of the mess.
 
Nailed it.
I just can't believe it is being dealt with so flipantly, it is such a hugely important issue, I can't believe that politicians are so matter a fact about it.
Either they are a lot sillier than I give them credit for, or they know something that isn't common knowledge.
 
Rio Tinto has done the sums on renewable energy vs fossil fuel. They have a huge energy spend and they don't want to spend any more than they need to. Hence the following decision.
And this isn't from The Shovel.

Rio Tinto turns to big batteries to underpin green smelters, as firmed renewables eclipse gas and coal



Sophie Vorrath

Feb 7, 2025

Battery Storage

Rio Tinto’s global aluminium chief says the resources giant is looking to add battery storage to the clean energy mix powering its Queensland Boyne Island smelter, as part of a plan to replace coal with firmed renewables and shift its Australian assets to “the good half of the global cost curve.”

In a detailed, two-part post on LinkedIn, Rio Tinto’s chief executive Jérôme Pécresse says there is no reason why Australian aluminium smelters can’t be powered by a mix of intermittent renewables, provided that mix is “firmed” via batteries.

Rio is already working hard to gather together the renewables part of the equation. Of the 5 gigawatts of new capacity required for its Gladstone smelters and refineries, it has locked in more than 2.2 GW of wind and solar generation through power purchase agreements, or PPAs.

The message this week from Pécresse, at the end of a tour of Rio Tinto’s Pacific aluminium operations, is that Rio will now turn its attention to the other part of the equation – adding battery storage to firm the contracted renewables.

“Such a solution is what we are working to put in place at our Boyne smelter,” Pécresse says. And he says this, not because he is an inner-city greenie, nor to spite Peter Dutton, who remains adamant smelters can run only on baseload coal or nuclear, but because – to borrow a recent Dutton-ism – it’s the economics of it.

 
While Peter Dutton and the fossil fuel industry lie their darnedest to insist that Black is White and Gas is Great - the financial reality of how Australian manufacturers and the public have been screxed senseless by the industry is getting another show,

Read this article in full to appreciate why the expansion of the gas industry only serves the industry. Not its customers, Not Australia as a country, Not Australia manufacturing.

When an industry exists purely and simply to extract maximum value and holding its customers to ransom it is no longer fit for purpose. (Except of course to create a few more billionaires and millions more paupers)

I have attached a link to the full report.

“Golden age of gas” has not paid off for Australian consumers, manufacturers



Royce Kurmelovs

Feb 6, 2025


Gas Policy & Planning

Queensland’s LNG export industry has been a “pretty poor investment” that has driven up domestic gas prices along the east coast, destroyed demand, threatened shortages and failed to deliver the royalties promised, a new analysis suggests.

The state’s LNG sector celebrated the ten-year-anniversary in January 2025 but a review of the period undertaken by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) says the industry’s track record has failed to deliver on the hype.

According to the report, Queensland set up the industry at a time of growing Chinese demand. Despite objections – including from a Queensland government paper – warning the decision would directly link the domestic market to the global gas market in a way that would raise prices, create shortages and lower demand by a fifth, the lure of a big new export industry proved too strong.

Gas finance analyst Kevin Morrison, author of the IEEFA report, said those critics have since been proven correct.

“The government noted it at the time, but they didn’t delve into it,” Morrison said. “There was a lot of hype – but there were also a lot of warnings, people saying prices are going to go up if we start exporting. And that’s what happened.”


 
Geez Baz, if you are going to bag Nuclear, at least put some sort of scientific, environmental or economic data up.
Relying on Juice Media for your information is almost as bad as relying The Shovel.
Mick

In fact Mick, Juice Media based their story on the following analysis.

The underestimated costs, unrealistic time lines, misleading comparisons. Everything is laid out. The spunky women , quick fire patter and excellent graphs is the Visual media contribution.

Short story.

Summary

“The Coalition Opposition is risking the public purse on an expensive technology that Australia has limited experience with.

“Nuclear is one of the most expensive forms of electricity generation and we found that introducing nuclear would result in rising bills.

“In our recent report, we looked at the actual, real-world experience of nuclear reactor projects installed overseas and found they were plagued by delays and cost overruns, and had costs far higher than what the Coalition Opposition is assuming.

“Based on overseas reactor projects, we found that nuclear power would cost 1.5 to 3.8 times the current cost of electricity in Eastern Australia.

“For nuclear power plants to be commercial and operating 24/7, the wholesale price would need to rise to these higher levels in order to enable nuclear cost recovery.

“This means household power bills would have to go up by $665 for a typical household and $972 for a four-person household per year.

“If nuclear costs were not recovered through the wholesale market and on power bills, then nuclear would require subsidies to remain commercial, and it appears these have not been included in the modelling.

“There are many remaining open questions around the nuclear proposal.”


Opposition’s nuclear costings are unrealistic


Coalition Opposition’s forecast of nuclear costs is unrealistic

Underestimated: Nuclear construction costs are too low
Underestimated: Fuel and operations cost of nuclear is lower than expected
Underestimated: Nuclear construction timeline
Unclear costs: SMR considerations are not explored
Unclear costs: Coal power plant extension costs do not seem to be mentioned
Unclear costs: Nuclear waste disposal, nuclear accident liability
Misleading: Nuclear plan is costed for an economy with less electricity consumption
Misleading: Spreading the cost over 50 years with unclear refurbishment costs
 
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This is a scandal. Allowing fugitive methane emissions to escape at a cost of $1Billion a year.
And the solutions are simple, available and cost effective.

A billion dollars going up in the air​


December 12, 2024




Methane problem needs urgent government action


Key Takeaways:​


Methane emissions from coal, oil and gas could increase under current policies – in particular inadequate measurement and settings in the Safeguard Mechanism – and jeopardise emissions reduction targets.



Australia could abate two thirds of its fossil fuel methane emissions using readily available technologies, at a net cost of about $1 per tonne of coal in coalmining, and at a net financial benefit in the gas sector due to the option to sell the methane captured.


 
Misleading: Spreading the cost over 50 years
I agree with the basic argument about the economics of nuclear but there's nothing inherently wrong with spreading the cost of something over its functional lifespan.

Indeed that's exactly what a rational person would do, spread the cost over the life of the asset in order to assess it on a per unit of production basis. Same regardless of technology.
 

I would be surprised if fuel and waste storge costs have been fully accounted for.
 
I would be surprised if fuel and waste storge costs have been fully accounted for.
They weren't. That was the point.
The Frontier analysis did not include the cost of the nuclear reactor beyond the 2051 modelling period . It also ignored nece4ssary refurbishment costs

Misleading: Spreading the cost over 50 years with unclear refurbishment costs

“The modelling has spread nuclear costs over a 50-year period.

“Since nuclear is not installed in the model until 2036 and onwards, and the nuclear capital cost is spread over 50 years (i.e. from 2036 to 2086 and beyond), IEEFA anticipates much of the nuclear cost will still not be repaid at the end of the Frontier report modelling period, 2051. This means that the Coalition’s proposal appears to have a long tail of cost outside of the modelled period that consumers will continue having to pay for.

“Further, it is not clear how refurbishment costs are considered, despite CSIRO’s latest GenCost report explaining that refurbishment of nuclear reactors is needed beyond the 40-year mark.”


Its worth reading the report in full.
 
If something is going to operate from (for example) 2035 to 2085 then it's entirely reasonable to spread the cost over that period. That's exactly what would be done with any form of generation, the cost is spread over its total life (or more precisely, it's spread over its total generated output).

Now I do agree there are problems and omissions, but if something lasts 5, 10, 50 or 100 years then of itself it's a normal thing to spread the cost over that time.

In saying that I'm inherently wary of arguments for using short lifespans simply because they bias toward gas and diesel. You'll never get a long lived asset such as hydro to stack up if someone decides it's to be written off financially after 20 years, but it's very different if it's run for a century or more.
 
Of course. In the case of nuclear, the operational lifetime is a matter of debate, do they only last 40 years or could they be stretched to 80 or more? And what is the cost of maintaining them for an extended time?

It's doubtful whether they will last as long as a hydro station, and then you have considerable dismantling costs.
 
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