Do not forget ev with feed out batteryHaHaHa if our whole near term grid production future is dependant on roof solar installations, well we are toast.
Because if that is your answer, the Government certainly hasn't explained it to you and I actually think you are one of the better informed general population and actually take an interest.
I mean seriously we are hoping on roof top solar take up, to encourage industrial size investment? Has it really come to that?
It's an older article, but still pertinent, being an EV owner, I wouldn't be keen on having the grid use my battery.Do not forget ev with feed out battery
This way, not only will the grid providers buy at half or a 10th of the sell price, but retail will actually purchase and maintain the Capex
Genius all these planet saviours and pocket fillers
Rooftop forever
Maybe not the whole answer but one factor. Another would be bottlenecks in the approvall process, Plibersek appears to like dragging her feet to please the environment and indigenous lobby.HaHaHa if our whole near term grid production future is dependant on roof solar installations, well we are toast.
Because if that is your answer, the Government certainly hasn't explained it to you and I actually think you are one of the better informed general population and actually take an interest.
I mean seriously we are hoping on roof top solar take up, to encourage industrial size investment? Has it really come to that?
A better investment would be BinTang tee shirt production, rusted on starting to face up to reality?
Which I could fully understand if it were the opposition wanting to further the renewable cause, I really can't understand it when it is the Government, that is pursuing the outcome.Maybe not the whole answer but one factor. Another would be bottlenecks in the approvall process, Plibersek appears to like dragging her feet to please the environment and indigenous lobby.
More pragmatism and less pandering to lobby groups hopefully, which is why I hope Labor don't have to power-sharing with the Greens.Who knows, an energy crisis could be the door to many changes.
And that could kill the greens as it did in Germany, and the benefiting party would be the ALP..perfect for them, LNP will not complain eitherWhich I could fully understand if it were the opposition wanting to further the renewable cause, I really can't understand it when it is the Government, that is pursuing the outcome.
It just looks like a train wreck in motion and the Government isn't doing much to stop it, unless that is the outcome they want.
Who knows, an energy crisis could be the door to many changes.
I've been shot down in a shouting match by a few true believers for pointing this out but ultimately rooftop solar is much like any other resource. Grade is an issue.Just guessing but there were high feed in tariffs for rooftop solar in the early years, but they are pathetic these days, so maybe that's a reason fewer people are taking up solar.
I've been shot down in a shouting match by a few true believers for pointing this out but ultimately rooftop solar is much like any other resource. Grade is an issue.
That's well understood by most in the context of mining, that mineral grades vary. A lot of mines cease production not because there's nothing at all left but simply because the concentration of whatever material (eg gold) drops off the deeper it goes meanwhile the cost of getting it out of the ground rises. A point comes where it just doesn't work anymore financially and that's it, game over.
Similar applies to all resources though. With rooftop solar the best case is a single story house with easy access to the roof from the front yard, owner occupied by someone who intends living there a long time, the owner has capital to invest, there's no shade on the roof, the roof is modern with a long remaining lifespan, the roof faces a suitable direction and is a simple design that easily fits the panels, the house already has a modern electrical switchboard, the distribution network has capacity, there are no objections from council or anyone else based on aesthetics, and big one the homeowner's home a lot during daytime and will make use of the electricity. That's the best case scenario.
Now let's consider homes that: Are rented, are owner occupied but with a mortgage high enough to be a concern to the owner, are old and the owner intends demolition or major renovation, switchboard is old and would need replacement, local network is a constraint, the roof design makes it difficult or even impossible to fit the panels (eg complex roofs with a lot of small sections), 2+ story or otherwise hard to access, shaded by trees or another structure, are in a location where aesthetics is a problem either informally or due to actual regulation, the homeowner is normally out all day so won't be using much electricity, and so on.
All up there are certainly some homes in the "perfect" category and it's a fair assumption they've been the most enthusiastic early adopters of rooftop solar. Ultimately though there's plenty of homes that have attributes making them far less than perfect. Just being rented alone takes a third of them out, then if we consider apartment towers, mobile homes etc now we've taken ~40% or so out just on those criteria alone.
Consider a street like this one in Sydney: https://www.google.com/maps/@-33.9045321,151.1780019,3a,82.2y,126.42h,105.34t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s-8FNx8rGa3ICr7wk_45FUw!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=-15.339869523559429&panoid=-8FNx8rGa3ICr7wk_45FUw&yaw=126.41627273956244!7i16384!8i8192?authuser=0&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDEyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
Not quite a random choice, I'm familiar with that area, but take a look around. Long story short well yes you could put solar on those roofs if you really wanted to, and there's the odd one that has done so, but there's rather a lot where getting them up there is going to be difficult due to height and access and/or they're not going to be overly productive due to shade from the neighbouring property or trees. Then there's fragile terracotta roof tiles, old switchboards that'll need an upgrade, etc. It ends up being a lot of effort and money for not a lot of electricity generated, especially given the demographics of the area mean most of those will be empty of a daytime.
From AEMO, the latest data for the number of homes with solar is:
Vic = 676,144
Tas = 52,791
SA = 374,361
Qld = 860,081
NSW = 517,778
ACT = 50,453
Looking at that, it seems fair to say that SA in particular is likely not far from the end. The 2021 Census counted 723,000 dwellings in SA and 51.8% of them now have solar. Take out the rentals, apartments, old buildings set for future demolition, heritage listed or heavily shaded etc, and realistically there's not a lot of likely growth there. That likely explains the falling trend in the number of new systems installed:
Residential:
View attachment 191907
There's no state where the residential trend is up. They peaked at different times but they're all falling.
Business:
View attachment 191908
In Queensland the trend has been up for the past two years, though still below the 2020 peak, whilst in Tasmania it's essentially sideways just with some year to year bumps. In other states it's clearly falling however, most dramatically in NSW and SA
That said, it looks somewhat better if measured by capacity rather than the number of installations. SA and NSW have both seen a clear decline, ACT is bumpy, but other states are still going flat to slightly upwards. So in other words, fewer systems are being installed but they're larger. If this were the stock market, that'd be declining breadth and a warning of a top being at hand.....
Chart shows total rooftop solar capacity added each year, all installations:
View attachment 191909
So overall there's no boom in rooftop solar and the only state where one could reasonably occur with national significance is NSW. Everywhere else is either already doing it, is somewhat tapped out, or is too small population to really make much difference.
Data doesn't include WA but from other sources it's extremely similar, the installation rate peaked in 2020 and has declined ever since. There's about 450,000 installations in WA at present.
And for the Australian NEM renewable installation record, from the @Smurf1976 post.
NEM
2014 = 11.8%
2015 = 13.7%
2016 = 18.2%
2017 = 15.8%
2018 = 20.3%
2019 = 22.7%
2020 = 26.5%
2021 = 31.4%
2022 = 35.0%
2023 = 38.6%
2024 = 38.9%
So there is definitely a situation that Chris needs to address, I'm thoroughly enjoying the trip @IFocus I know SFA, so you obviously have inside info.
2019-2021 had an increase of nearly 10% renewables.
2022-2024 had a 4% increase, maybe there is another metric on working this out, like true believers.
@IFocus can you bring me up to speed? I know SFA and am looking for guidance, so I can help you on your crusade.
Obviously the technical bit is what some are having issues with, taking W.A as a case study, hydro is somewhat difficult and gas creates emissions.Glad you are on board
Its all very technical but we need more generation and storage....gas and hydro.
Obviously the technical bit is what some are having issues with, taking W.A as a case study, hydro is somewhat difficult and gas creates emissions.
I've been shot down in a shouting match by a few true believers for pointing this out but ultimately rooftop solar is much like any other resource. Grade is an issue.
That's well understood by most in the context of mining, that mineral grades vary. A lot of mines cease production not because there's nothing at all left but simply because the concentration of whatever material (eg gold) drops off the deeper it goes meanwhile the cost of getting it out of the ground rises. A point comes where it just doesn't work anymore financially and that's it, game over.
Similar applies to all resources though. With rooftop solar the best case is a single story house with easy access to the roof from the front yard, owner occupied by someone who intends living there a long time, the owner has capital to invest, there's no shade on the roof, the roof is modern with a long remaining lifespan, the roof faces a suitable direction and is a simple design that easily fits the panels, the house already has a modern electrical switchboard, the distribution network has capacity, there are no objections from council or anyone else based on aesthetics, and big one the homeowner's home a lot during daytime and will make use of the electricity. That's the best case scenario.
Now let's consider homes that: Are rented, are owner occupied but with a mortgage high enough to be a concern to the owner, are old and the owner intends demolition or major renovation, switchboard is old and would need replacement, local network is a constraint, the roof design makes it difficult or even impossible to fit the panels (eg complex roofs with a lot of small sections), 2+ story or otherwise hard to access, shaded by trees or another structure, are in a location where aesthetics is a problem either informally or due to actual regulation, the homeowner is normally out all day so won't be using much electricity, and so on.
All up there are certainly some homes in the "perfect" category and it's a fair assumption they've been the most enthusiastic early adopters of rooftop solar. Ultimately though there's plenty of homes that have attributes making them far less than perfect. Just being rented alone takes a third of them out, then if we consider apartment towers, mobile homes etc now we've taken ~40% or so out just on those criteria alone.
Consider a street like this one in Sydney: https://www.google.com/maps/@-33.9045321,151.1780019,3a,82.2y,126.42h,105.34t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s-8FNx8rGa3ICr7wk_45FUw!2e0!6shttps://streetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com/v1/thumbnail?cb_client=maps_sv.tactile&w=900&h=600&pitch=-15.339869523559429&panoid=-8FNx8rGa3ICr7wk_45FUw&yaw=126.41627273956244!7i16384!8i8192?authuser=0&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDEyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
Not quite a random choice, I'm familiar with that area, but take a look around. Long story short well yes you could put solar on those roofs if you really wanted to, and there's the odd one that has done so, but there's rather a lot where getting them up there is going to be difficult due to height and access and/or they're not going to be overly productive due to shade from the neighbouring property or trees. Then there's fragile terracotta roof tiles, old switchboards that'll need an upgrade, etc. It ends up being a lot of effort and money for not a lot of electricity generated, especially given the demographics of the area mean most of those will be empty of a daytime.
From AEMO, the latest data for the number of homes with solar is:
Vic = 676,144
Tas = 52,791
SA = 374,361
Qld = 860,081
NSW = 517,778
ACT = 50,453
Looking at that, it seems fair to say that SA in particular is likely not far from the end. The 2021 Census counted 723,000 dwellings in SA and 51.8% of them now have solar. Take out the rentals, apartments, old buildings set for future demolition, heritage listed or heavily shaded etc, and realistically there's not a lot of likely growth there. That likely explains the falling trend in the number of new systems installed:
Residential:
View attachment 191907
There's no state where the residential trend is up. They peaked at different times but they're all falling.
Business:
View attachment 191908
In Queensland the trend has been up for the past two years, though still below the 2020 peak, whilst in Tasmania it's essentially sideways just with some year to year bumps. In other states it's clearly falling however, most dramatically in NSW and SA
That said, it looks somewhat better if measured by capacity rather than the number of installations. SA and NSW have both seen a clear decline, ACT is bumpy, but other states are still going flat to slightly upwards. So in other words, fewer systems are being installed but they're larger. If this were the stock market, that'd be declining breadth and a warning of a top being at hand.....
Chart shows total rooftop solar capacity added each year, all installations:
View attachment 191909
So overall there's no boom in rooftop solar and the only state where one could reasonably occur with national significance is NSW. Everywhere else is either already doing it, is somewhat tapped out, or is too small population to really make much difference.
Data doesn't include WA but from other sources it's extremely similar, the installation rate peaked in 2020 and has declined ever since. There's about 450,000 installations in WA at present.
Regional Power put that in, I didn't see you there at the commissioning, did I.Need to move Perth north next to Lake Argyle .
Regional Power put that in, I didn't see you there at the commissioning, did I.
Need to move Perth north next to Lake Argyle .
Storage will be an issue for WA (current nuclear tech wont fix that) that's why I keep saying gas will be the interim generation no matter what but governments will have to fix availability and price 1st IMHO.
Disgusting.Gas in Western Australia
Is WA heading for a gas shortage? Hardly! In fact, if Western Australia were a country, it would be the world’s third largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the USA and Qatar.australiainstitute.org.au
Yes in 1946 Collie Power Station was compulsory acquired and its size was increased plus the frequency was changed from 40cycles to 50 cycles, then the distribution from Collie was increased to include Donnybrook, Harvey, Waroona and Bunbury.Was that after Country Undertakens? (dumb name)
Yep.Disgusting.
World class exporter does not mean availability for the native tribes ask Victorians building a gas import terminalDisgusting.
Yes in 1946 Collie Power Station was compulsory acquired and its size was increased plus the frequency was changed from 40cycles to 50 cycles, then the distribution from Collie was increased to include Donnybrook, Harvey, Waroona and Bunbury.
That was when the SWIS first started to grow, then town by town the South West council power stations were taken over. The first HV line was 132kV line from Bunbury power station to Cannington sub station in 1957.
Country undertakings actually started mainly due to the 1973 oil crisis, people in regional country towns had to pay nearly double what those on the SWIS had to pay for electricity. The councils were struggling to keep the old diesel power stations going, so the Government through the SEC started the Country Towns Assistance Scheme and started taking over the council power stations.
You probably remember the old Blackstones at Denham, we replaced them in the 1980's.
From memory Country Undertakings was changed to Regional Power Stations Group, When SEC was corporatised and changed to Western Power.
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