The future of energy generation and storage

Smurf1976 said:

There are however many offsets:

Every educational facility is shut.

Fewer businesses open on Christmas Day than at any other time of year.

Systems such as air-conditioning and desktop computers in commercial use that are not uncommonly left running 24/7 are more likely to be switched off over the Christmas break. Not consistently, but it's definitely a thing, some companies do have an "everything off" policy at this time of year (mostly due to fire risk).

A significant portion of homes also unoccupied due to visiting family etc,

Hard to prove but realistically less cooking circa 6pm. With people on holidays more use of BBQ's the vast majority of which aren't electric.

Fewer public transport services which includes electric trains and trams in cities.

We're at the peak of sunlight this time of year, doesn't get any better than this. That impacts both solar generation and also makes a small reduction in demand due to lighting.

Put that all together and the effect is a significant offset to temperature-induced consumption.

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If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

SirRumpole said:

If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

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Tomorrow is expected to be a scorcher down south.
That's when we could see some issues, especially if compounded by wild fires

SirRumpole said:

If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

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Basic requirement to get a hot weather extreme high demand are:

1. Working weekday.

2. Preferably with schools open but not essential.

3. Heat needs to be widespread not localised. Needs to affect all of the capital city + regions. An issue in NSW in particular being there's not uncommonly a major temperature gradient across Sydney with the east being considerably cooler than the west. That's less of an issue in the other capitals.

4. The nature of the weather itself. Temperature needs to be high over multiple consecutive days to fully get through the more heavily constructed buildings (eg double brick, stone etc). Also humidity has a major impact - the higher the humidity, the higher will be the energy used to maintain a given temperature inside.

Today it just won't happen. Eg forecast peak for SA today is 2072MW so that's 1400MW below the record. Yes it's currently 35 degrees in Adelaide, forecast maximum 36, but even that's relatively mild considering adding another 10 degrees on top of that still wouldn't be a record.

Similar in other states. Nationally 75% of consumption is by users that aren't residential and even in the relatively non-industrialised states it's still at least 69%. That being so, there's simply too many businesses shut to get demand up to a level that would be problematic.

It's a bit like road traffic. To end up with a traffic jam today wouldn't be impossible but it'd take something to go wrong, it's not going to happen otherwise given reduced volumes. Well, not unless the location is the beach maybe.

Smurf1976 said:

Basic requirement to get a hot weather extreme high demand are:

1. Working weekday.

2. Preferably with schools open but not essential.

3. Heat needs to be widespread not localised. Needs to affect all of the capital city + regions. An issue in NSW in particular being there's not uncommonly a major temperature gradient across Sydney with the east being considerably cooler than the west. That's less of an issue in the other capitals.

4. The nature of the weather itself. Temperature needs to be high over multiple consecutive days to fully get through the more heavily constructed buildings (eg double brick, stone etc). Also humidity has a major impact - the higher the humidity, the higher will be the energy used to maintain a given temperature inside.

Today it just won't happen. Eg forecast peak for SA today is 2072MW so that's 1400MW below the record. Yes it's currently 35 degrees in Adelaide, forecast maximum 36, but even that's relatively mild considering adding another 10 degrees on top of that still wouldn't be a record.

Similar in other states. Nationally 75% of consumption is by users that aren't residential and even in the relatively non-industrialised states it's still at least 69%. That being so, there's simply too many businesses shut to get demand up to a level that would be problematic.

It's a bit like road traffic. To end up with a traffic jam today wouldn't be impossible but it'd take something to go wrong, it's not going to happen otherwise given reduced volumes. Well, not unless the location is the beach maybe.

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Appreciate you replying today.

Enjoy the supply/demand situation whatever you are doing.

While i would not dare suggesting fusion here while our main intercities train are not even electrified, some news on why i am more convince fusion is definitely coming, something i would not have bet 10y ago

Indonesia could be going nuclear.

Implications for our national security I would think.

SirRumpole said:

Indonesia could be going nuclear.

Implications for our national security I would think.

This earthquake-prone country has a plan to introduce nuclear power

One of Australia's closest neighbours proposes 29 locations for nuclear power plants across the archipelago, but critics say the plan is "dangerous".

www.abc.net.au

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They probably don't have a lot of options, 275million people and they are industrialising, therefore as their affluence and industry grows, their electrical demand will grow exponentially I would guess.

I wouldn't have thought they have a huge amount of readily accessible land, suitable for the amount of solar/wind/ storage that will be require, to meet their energy demands.

Indonesia per capita usage:
Around 10,173 kilowatt hours

Australia per capita usage:
In 2023, the average Australian used 63,257 kWh
This figure is significantly higher than that of an average consumer in the UK but is slightly lower than that of the US.

Indonesia: Energy Country Profile

Indonesia: Many of us want an overview of how much energy our country consumes, where it comes from, and if we’re making progress on decarbonizing our energy mix. This page provides the data for your chosen country across all of the key metrics on this topic.

ourworldindata.org

sptrawler said:

They probably don't have a lot of options, 275million people and they are industrialising, therefore as their affluence and industry grows, their electrical demand will grow exponentially I would guess.

I wouldn't have thought they have a huge amount of readily accessible land, suitable for the amount of solar/wind/ storage that will be require, to meet their energy demands.

Indonesia per capita usage:
Around 1,173 kilowatt hours

Australia per capita usage:
In 2023, the average Australian used 63,257 kWh

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And foremost tgey have no money to waste on fancy not working systems, as it seems we have

qldfrog said:

And foremost tgey have no money to waste on fancy not working systems, as it seems we have

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Countries with an abundance of easily extracted natural resources tend to go down the track of developing that natural capital and neglecting human capital.

Australia in 2024 is an outstanding example of that unfortunately. Even for the tertiary educated, it's a practical reality that most engineers do no actual engineering and most with a law degree do not practice law, same with many professions (medical being a notable exception).

Those lamenting our energy situation, lack of manufacturing or anything related are basically lamenting that point. That we've gone down the track of digging big holes in the ground and outsourcing complexity.

Science is interesting but the boring engineers have to make it work.

Hydro in China..this is biggggg

qldfrog said:

Hydro in China..this is biggggg

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-build-worlds-largest-hydropower-dam-tibet-2024-12-26/

www.reuters.com

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Meanwhile in Australia, we protect the environment by sticking with gas and diesel to firm renewables.

It's not as though we don't have technically viable and at least reasonably economic but undeveloped hydro in Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas and the NT within practical distance of either the existing grid or major load centres.

It's just that we don't want to build it, that's all.

Smurf1976 said:

It's just that we don't want to build it, that's all.

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Is it technically too hard for us these days (e.g. Paradise Dam) or just too difficult politically?

SirRumpole said:

Is it technically too hard for us these days (e.g. Paradise Dam) or just too difficult politically?

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We still have capability it's just that it's not being used due to politics.

If only we could learn from the german disaster but fair luck,
And we do not have the luxury to import power from OS so will be even worse ...

qldfrog said:

If only we could learn from the german disaster but fair luck,

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Germany, smaller land area than Oz, bigger population, less sun, different conditions.

However, having spent a lot of money on nuclear reactors and having them operational, it was crazy to close them down in my opinion.

SirRumpole said:

Germany, smaller land area than Oz, bigger population, less sun, different conditions.

However, having spent a lot of money on nuclear reactors and having them operational, it was crazy to close them down in my opinion.

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So even you believe in the "we are different", they have less sun but more wind, and they can build their own windmills, even batteries..we do neither.
If Germany could not make it spending more than a trillion from memory (1000 billions,)
In my belief, it is absolute lunacy to believe we can do better, or even as good/bad but lunacy is a trademark for some parties

qldfrog said:

So even you believe in the "we are different",

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Because we are, just look at a few facts regarding land area, population whatever you like.

Technologically speaking, the Germans are in advance of us, but our problem is politics not lack of technical expertise( according to Smurf anyway).

SirRumpole said:

Because we are, just look at a few facts regarding land area, population whatever you like.

Technologically speaking, the Germans are in advance of us, but our problem is politics not lack of technical expertise( according to Smurf anyway).

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Sadly, i have no doubt whatsoever that tech mix being an actual no go for a nation, even one where industry is dead and mining/agriculture manages their own supply independently mostly from the grid.
Power consumption per capita2023)
Germany 38,052kWh per annum ...with factories
Australia 63,257kwh per annum...with coffee shops..
Population: 84.5m germans
84.5*38=3210 in millions of mega wh (need per annum)
Australia 27m population
27*63=1700 but we have to do it alone, no help from neighbour nuclear plants and distribute that energy on a continent vs a country
Billions extra in network which are/were already in place and working in Germany
I think that realtime, real size German experiment failure is quite conclusive..but sure we are different.....
Being sunny will make the difference
Always remember that Mr Smurf does not really care about the actual technology cost, nor challenge the CO2 net zero aim.
Tell me if i am wrong @Smurf1976 ?
This is not the question we ask him as i understand, we ask feasibility
It is a fair approach that with illimited money, and proper political balls to allow for the right technical decision,we might be able to technically be coal and fossil fuel free.
True indeed, but i do not believe we have enough money for that to happen, let alone with the political dogma.
And nowhere do we ask Mr Smurf to look at the life expectancy of either the solar or wind farms..
Dismissing the German experience is a deadly mistake imho

Argentina is jumping on the bandwagon according to the website you posted @qldfrog , Argentina would have a better chance than us of going renewables, I would have thought with the mountains etc.
It certainly will become obvious how long reactors take to build, as there are many countries going to be building them, interesting times.



"After years of stagnation, nuclear energy is making a powerful comeback, and we are determined to lead, not follow," Milei declared confidently, emphasizing the country's abundant natural resources, skilled workforce, and Patagonia's cold climate, which he described as ideal for housing energy-intensive technologies like AI. "Nuclear energy is the only source that is sufficiently efficient, abundant and rapidly scalable to cope with the development of our civilization," he added.

The project will have the backing of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi joining Milei and his key advisor, Demian Reidel, during the plan's official launch. Reidel stressed that the increasing demand for energy, particularly from AI advancements, makes nuclear power crucial to Argentina's energy strategy, jpost.com reports.

The first phase of the plan will focus on the construction of a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) at the Atucha Nuclear Power Plant. The reactor is expected to help meet rising energy demands and alleviate power shortages throughout Argentina.

Reidel emphasized the significant contribution of Argentine nuclear engineers to the initiative. "We will do so with 100% Argentine technology, developed by our nuclear engineers, who are recognized among the best in the world," he stated, according to Rosario3. He added that the plan "will give us energy sovereignty, will allow us to export this technology to the world," and assured that "blackouts will be just a bad memory," according to La Nación.

In the second phase of the initiative, Argentina aims to capitalize on its untapped uranium reserves to meet domestic needs and establish itself as a leading exporter of nuclear fuel. The government envisions positioning Argentina as a global leader in the peaceful use of atomic energy, while also advancing its aspirations to become an international hub for AI innovation.

Currently, Argentina operates three nuclear power facilities—Atucha I, Atucha II, and Embalse—which together supply around 9% of the nation's electricity consumption, according to government data from July 2023.

The announcement comes as Argentina has officially emerged from a severe recession, a milestone that marks a major success for Milei and his bold economic reforms. According to data from Argentina's statistics agency, GDP grew 3.9% in the July-to-September quarter compared to the previous three months. This growth was driven by robust performances in agriculture, mining, and consumer spending, signaling a recovery in key sectors of the economy, the Financial Post reports.