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So what if the 5GW base load was supplied by nuclear, the variable component supplied by renewables + batteries and the upper 4GW supplied by hydro? That would be 100% emission free generation.
Meanwhile if in the future if new technology permits renewables to replace the nuclear, you close the nuclear down, doesn't seem like too much of a stretch of the imagination.
All the technologies are currently available, to become emission free, if that is the end game.
And do not forget fusion, not there yet but not as far fetched as 20y ago, there are now dozen of experimental reactors..this might popup anytime, so do we still buy lithium batteries and 15y lifetime solar panelsWhat if a large part of the baseload could be supplied by renewables in certain conditions ?
This is the problem isn't it? The most expensive energy(nuclear) is being used when the cheapest would suffice.
That's why the inflexibility of nuclear becomes a problem in a system that aims to provide the cheapest energy.
At least, that's the way I understand it.
Meanwhile if in the future if new technology permits renewables to replace the nuclear, you close the nuclear down, doesn't seem like too much of a stretch of the imagination.
That's one very large investment to write off. You may as well use coal instead.
That is the problem, it can't, because it is intermittent, as you said "in certain conditions", it can do that already, as long as people can accept that in certain conditions it can't.What if a large part of the baseload could be supplied by renewables in certain conditions ?
Absolutely.And do not forget fusion, not there yet but not as far fetched as 20y ago, there are now dozen of experimental reactors..this might popup anytime, so do we still buy lithium batteries and 15y lifetime solar panels
for nuclear noone mentioning thorium reactor, would that put the Green at ease?
I bet the reaction will be:That is the problem, it can't, because it is intermittent, as you said "in certain conditions", it can do that already, as long as people can accept that in certain conditions it can't.
What the loonies have got to get their head around, is energy density, but that is beyond normal coversations.
We can still manage with just horses as transport, we just have to realise that life will be different, if people can accept that fine go back to horses no more vehicle pollution.
Like I keep saying if it's about getting rid of coal and that is the main issue, it isn't a problem just use gas, if it's about emissions well using gas through a turbine to make electricity and still give off emissions, well that is a waste. When it can be done emission free with a hugely powerful clean source.
The down side with the clean source is it has some nasty side issues, but so does using gas, gas keeps the warming issue going, nuclear has waste to be dealt with.
As long as you keep the nuclear to a minimum, you keep the waste to a minimum and it isn't causing the global warming.
Money really doesn't come into it, who gives a $hit really, just look at the house prices.
If people have a choice between being cooked alive due to emissions, or spending more on clean energy and living, my guess is they will say "why the flck didn't we spend the money".
I think the general public is onto this it isn't rocket science, it is only the tribalism that is keeping the debate going, after the next election there will be a lot of changes of position in politics IMO.I bet the reaction will be:
we are paying 3 times as much for power than anywhere else, can not afford running AC and are cooking, we are 100% co2 neutral but it did not change a thing as the Chineses/indians did nothing anyway,
(And maybe even once science is back: it is now proven CC was not due to co2)
But even if i am wrong on the later, everything else is true:
the scenario remains
So our grandchildren will be:
Who where these ******* Millennials?
We have blackouts daily, we can not afford power so are boiling
And we are too broke to build the new "free power" fusion plants ...
The fun..
The times may be changing, but maths, physics and economics don't, usually.I think the general public is onto this it isn't rocket science, it is only the tribalism that is keeping the debate going, after the next election there will be a lot of changes of position in politics IMO.
Many of the old guard will move out to pasture and a new paradigm will form IMO.
The younger generation aren't as accepting of being told what is right and what is wrong, as is being seen by the mainstream media, they are more informed through social media and less inclined to believe what their elders are telling them.
As Bob would say "Times are a changing".
One verse resonates and it was the last real period of social change.
Come mothers and fathers throughout the land
And don't criticize what you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly aging
Please get out of the new one if you can't lend your hand
'Cause the times, they are a-changin'
Exactly, if the conversation can keep to those basic principles we can't go wrong and also we wouldn't have had to write off $30billion recently on the NBN, which the telco's were meant to contribute to.The times may be changing, but maths, physics and economics don't, usually.
So as an insider , what is your ideal system?It isn't about nuclear, it isn't about gas, it isn't about renewables, it isn't about cost.
It's about what we can do to achieve a sensible outcome that delivers clean electrical generation, with the least amount of social and economical disruption and with economical disruption I mean loss of industries.
If we stuff this up, we are toast, I've said that a lot of times and it still is true.
This is make or break for Australia IMO.
Also I hope Labor get in next election, because, it is far better to have a short and sharp shock, than a protracted one and after 3 more years the answers will be obvious.
Whereas if they don't get in, the question will always be, what if.
Just my take on it.
Well I will get bagged whatever I say and I'm only talking from my personal experience, which is mainly from a generation point of view.So as an insider , what is your ideal system?
No real choice here, better be able to connect it if /when builtGovernment approves HumeLink transmission project connecting Snowy Hydro 2.0 to grid
Government approves transmission project linking Snowy Hydro 2.0 to grid
A major transmission project that will connect Snowy Hydro 2.0 to the energy grid has received final government approval, taking the total cost of the pumped hydro scheme to almost $17 billion.www.abc.net.au
Yes, but the power industry is 25% of GHG emissions, and there seems to be no strategy to reduce the output from other sources like agriculture, mining, transport and forestry which needs to be addressed.To me the issue is trying to stop burning fossil fuels, which is causing global warming apparently, so we have to work with what technology is available to us right now, not what might be available in 20 years.
Does it? Do we really need to go back to the stone age on fake sciences?Yes, but the power industry is 25% of GHG emissions, and there seems to be no strategy to reduce the output from other sources like agriculture, mining, transport and forestry which needs to be addressed.
Looking at the economics of all this, some very important relationships exist.What i mean is that, in Australia, we have reached the point where our peak demand is AC and TV/oven at family dinner, not factory shift changes at 8AM or 2PM
You have better figures than me mr @Smurf1976 but in most if not all of the rest of the civilised/developed world, there is a huge industrial usage, ongoing, regular often 24/7, smoothing demand.
Our current power price forbids us from any sizable industrial development and our grid is balanced toward suburban family usage.
What is the link with the debate?
TrueLooking at the economics of all this, some very important relationships exist.
Residential has a rather costly load profile due to the evening peak that you mention. Consumption is highly concentrated and not only that, it's concentrated at a time of day that solar isn't much help with and wind often isn't either.
General business is somewhat better since, apart from restaurants etc, it mostly operates either entirely outside the peak (eg anything "9 to 5") or it runs during the peak but also runs during the off-peak (anything open long hours eg supermarkets, petrol stations).
What really helps though is off-peak loads and this is so for a number of reasons.
Take off-peak water heating for example. What's the effect of having it as an electrical load versus not having it (eg using gas water heating instead)? Well there's two things it does and one it doesn't, all of which are beneficial.
1. It raises minimum load on the system, thus enabling the addition of more generating plant that is continuously fully utilised. With the key benefit that means more low cost plant running throughout the day, it effectively transfers some of the intermediate and peak load to base load plant due to that raising of minimum load enabling its economic construction and operation.
2. More electricity sold, so fixed costs are spread over a greater volume = lower cost per unit sold.
3. Adds nothing at all to peak demand, it doesn't require any additional capacity at all. It's just making more use of existing capacity, and enabling a shift from peaking plant to lower cost means of generation.
Eg if we take a system with a peak load of 3500MW, average load of 1500MW and minimum of 900MW then with that arrangement high capital cost, low running cost plant can generate 60% of total supply, meaning the other 40% is necessarily coming from higher cost intermediate and peaking plant. But if we add electric off-peak water heating, and raise the minimum load by 300MW whilst increasing average load by 100MW, then now we can generate 75% of total production from low cost plant, leaving only 25% to come from intermediate and peaking plant. Meanwhile we're now spreading all fixed costs over a 6.66% greater volume so less cost per unit sold.
Industry is similar but not quite. Assuming we're talking about large scale heavy industry with an interruptible (in emergencies only) contract then what does it do?
Well it raises the minimum system load and thus enables more low cost plant to be installed. It does however also raise routine daily peak demand, so it does also mean some more operation of other generating plant too.
It doesn't however require more generation to be built due to the interruptible nature of it. On the rare occasions when it's 45 degrees outside, that's when the factory gets interrupted in order to maintain supply to residential etc. Due to that it also brings another change - the peaking plant is being used more often, it can now be built as intermediate plant instead of actual peaking plant, lowering the cost per unit of output.
Likewise with transmission, the additional investment required to supply major industry is disproportionately low relative to its energy consumption due to being a 24/365 but interruptible load. Its existence thus lowers the overall cost of supply to all consumers on a price per unit basis.
The underlying economics there is much the same as any business. If you need staff then the cheapest option per unit of labour is to employ full time permanent staff and keep them fully utilised. Anything else costs more - overtime, casual, contractors are all more expensive per unit, and needless to say anything that results in your staff sitting around doing nothing is a dead loss financially.
Now if you have a highly variable workload then employing permanent staff is problematic, due to that sitting around issue, so you might decide on a few permanent staff and meeting the peaks with some combination of paid overtime, casual workers and contractors.
Buti if you could find some other paid work to fill the gaps when you're not busy, then what that would enable you to do is employ more permanent staff and keep them fully utilised. And since it's only adding work during the slow periods, it's not adding work during the busy periods, those permanent staff replace the role you previously paid overtime, casuals or contractors to do. End result is you've lowered your labour cost per unit and you've also grown the business in total. Excellent - you've just discovered the business equivalent of off-peak hot water.
Another business concept you might find useful is having some long term contracts for supplying whatever you sell to someone but with the bonus that you get some flexibility as to when you supply it, you can avoid having to do anything for them when you're flat out serving others (like the pre-Christmas rush) as long as this is only under those limited circumstances as per the contract. So you get consistent revenue, but you can shift those staff and equipment to serve others when demand's unusually high, thus avoiding the need to spend money on additional staff or equipment. Excellent - you've just found the business equivalent of a major industrial power contract.
This isn't radical in any way. There's lots of examples of businesses that have a core business that's quite variable then look for ways to put staff and equipment to use during the slow periods. For one obvious example major CBD hotels worked out long ago that the business conference market mostly operates outside the peak tourist season, meaning it's a very nice way to get people into the hotel during the rest of the year when it would otherwise be partly empty. Lots of examples like that in all sorts of businesses where the demand for the core business is variable, so the owners seek to put equipment and staff to use during the quieter days of the week or season of the year.
None of this is rocket science and it's not ideology. It's just fundamental economics that if the demand for the product can be smoothed then that increases capacity utilisation and reduces cost per unit of production. Nothing radical there, lots of businesses have that dynamic so it shouldn't be controversial. Trouble is, you'd be amazed at how many are unable to grasp it.....
My view = crunch the numbers.So as an insider , what is your ideal system?
People really do seem to be having a problem understanding the gas issue @Smurf1976 , you have been mentioning the gas issue for a number of years, yet a lot of people seem to think it is just a matter of clicking their fingers and gas is miraculously found.I'll avoid personal comments but this is a key issue.
At the global level about 10% of known gas reserves are in Western countries. As for the rest, the big problem is most of it's in places that could be considered extremely problematic from a Western perspective.
If you are not allowed to look, you are not going to find it, even if therePeople really do seem to be having a problem understanding the gas issue @Smurf1976 , you have been mentioning the gas issue for a number of years, yet a lot of people seem to think it is just a matter of clicking their fingers and gas is miraculously found.
Gas is finite.
In today's paper.
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