There will be nothing that resembles plan other than not to hve plan till post the next Fuderal election. At that point Australia will have gone with a cross bench at either the Forest,Cannon-Brookes, Zarli Steggle end of the spectrum or the Kelly, Palmer, Malcolm Roberts OneNation dead end of the scale.This is the ultimate problem.
What the plan ought to involve is debateable but we need to have one ASAP.
Yes Macron probably hasn't realised the steel they use to manufacture their reactors, is probably made using Australian iron ore and metallurgical coal.Don't tell that to Macron, he wants us to drop coal altogether .
Do you think he is after a market for French nuclear reactors maybe ?
"
Tellingly, given the Prime Minister is already on the defensive over his government's climate change commitments, the President says he encouraged Mr Morrison to adopt emission reduction measures "commensurate with the climate challenge" and cease production and consumption of coal.
This is a deliberate strike by the French President at the PM's carbon credentials on the eve of next week's Glasgow climate talks."
Macron delivers precise torpedo strike to Morrison
The French President's fury does not seem to have cooled with the Australian government, writes Andrew Probyn.www.abc.net.au
I've previously noted the ability to run water discharged through Snowy 2.0 through the existing Tumut 3 station, resulting in the practical loss of most of it from the scheme given the limited capacity of Jounama pondage, as an attribute of it.You forgot that Talbingo, which Tantangara it outflows to, has a capacity of only 160GL. So unless you want to lose water to the rest of the system, 160GL is you maximum.
I am not doubting that Snowy 2 has massive storage potential, but its quoted numbers are pie in the sky. As I pointed out, the real world seldom sees Tantangara above 30% full during the year, so selling Snowy 2 as 75 hours rather than 175 hours capable is at least defensible. On that basis a more realistic cost per generated kilowatt for Snowy 2 is therefore closer to $12000 (or 20 times the VBB equivalent).I've previously noted the ability to run water discharged through Snowy 2.0 through the existing Tumut 3 station, resulting in the practical loss of most of it from the scheme given the limited capacity of Jounama pondage, as an attribute of it.
Note that all figures quoted are nominal values and will vary slightly in practical operation.
239 GL active capacity in Tantangara versus 160 GL in Talbingo.
I am not doubting that Snowy 2 has massive storage potential, but its quoted numbers are pie in the sky. As I pointed out, the real world seldom sees Tantangara above 30% full during the year, so selling Snowy 2 as 75 hours rather than 175 hours capable is at least defensible. On that basis a more realistic cost per generated kilowatt for Snowy 2 is therefore closer to $12000 (or 20 times the VBB equivalent).
In a fashion it really doesn't matter though as the question is about what Snowy 2 is supposed to achieve.
I used the VBB as an example of an alternative (not sure why you used Kurri Kurri - as you noted, it's fundamentally flawed).
Batteries are scalable, so can be added to in order to meet anticipated peak loads that otherwise cause load shedding.
Using Victoria as an example, during peak demand from the grid the average household consumes roughly 3kW/h, and the State has about 3M households. On this basis Snowy 2 could definitely accommodate around 650k households for a long duration, but that's not how demand works. Demand peaks are incremental and time limited.
The VBB adds another 150k household for 45 minutes to meet peak demand (load).
Adding 10 VBB equivalents gives 3GW to 1.5M households for 45 minutes at peak demand and would cost less than $2B. Unfortunately Snowy 2 is capped at 2GW, so could not meet that peak, although clearly could run for days.
I don't know how long the VBB was expected to last before replacement but Tesla warranted Hornsdale for 15 years so @sptrawler's 10 year cap is at least 50% out. Flow batteries have lifecycles from 20 - 30 years with minimal output loss.
I have no problem with pumped hydro to where it's a cost effective solution to intermittency, but Snowy 2 is akin to putting a cricket team on the field comprised of a bowler and 10 wicket keepers. It's a level of backup that has no business case supporting it.
@sptrawler reckons that Snowy 2 will be handy to have when there are days of low generation from renewables. That's true. But when exactly will Snowy 2 be needed to meet any shortfall?
As @Smurf1976 notes, at least Snowy 2 is happening. Given the pace of other market developments I see it becoming a white elephant. But in the absence of a credible energy policy and without a plan, something is better than nothing for the time being.
As I've said, if Snowy 2.0 isn't viable and or required, Labor will have no issue with stopping the project, it is still in the early stages. So lets just wait and see rather than having circular debates..I am not doubting that Snowy 2 has massive storage potential, but its quoted numbers are pie in the sky. As I pointed out, the real world seldom sees Tantangara above 30% full during the year, so selling Snowy 2 as 75 hours rather than 175 hours capable is at least defensible. On that basis a more realistic cost per generated kilowatt for Snowy 2 is therefore closer to $12000 (or 20 times the VBB equivalent).
In a fashion it really doesn't matter though as the question is about what Snowy 2 is supposed to achieve.
I used the VBB as an example of an alternative (not sure why you used Kurri Kurri - as you noted, it's fundamentally flawed).
Batteries are scalable, so can be added to in order to meet anticipated peak loads that otherwise cause load shedding.
Using Victoria as an example, during peak demand from the grid the average household consumes roughly 3kW/h, and the State has about 3M households. On this basis Snowy 2 could definitely accommodate around 650k households for a long duration, but that's not how demand works. Demand peaks are incremental and time limited.
The VBB adds another 150k household for 45 minutes to meet peak demand (load).
Adding 10 VBB equivalents gives 3GW to 1.5M households for 45 minutes at peak demand and would cost less than $2B. Unfortunately Snowy 2 is capped at 2GW, so could not meet that peak, although clearly could run for days.
I don't know how long the VBB was expected to last before replacement but Tesla warranted Hornsdale for 15 years so @sptrawler's 10 year cap is at least 50% out. Flow batteries have lifecycles from 20 - 30 years with minimal output loss.
I have no problem with pumped hydro to where it's a cost effective solution to intermittency, but Snowy 2 is akin to putting a cricket team on the field comprised of a bowler and 10 wicket keepers. It's a level of backup that has no business case supporting it.
@sptrawler reckons that Snowy 2 will be handy to have when there are days of low generation from renewables. That's true. But when exactly will Snowy 2 be needed to meet any shortfall?
As @Smurf1976 notes, at least Snowy 2 is happening. Given the pace of other market developments I see it becoming a white elephant. But in the absence of a credible energy policy and without a plan, something is better than nothing for the time being.
Snowy 2 is only insurance against multiday-duration intermittency. The issue is pretty much isolated to Victoria which has a high winter load and presently can simultaneously experience dual wind and solar capacity shortfalls as @Smurf has separately charted.Interesting to see the Guardian and Labor commenting on "commercial viability", that's usually the LNP's area..
Without going into the merits of any proposal , the storage options are all "insurance policies" against the risk that intermittent energy sources cannot satisfy demand for short or medium periods of time.
No insurance policies are commercially viable unless you have to use them.
There will be stranded assets and governments will have to own them because private operators won't . If batteries owned by private operators can't supply demand the private operators will just walk away and say 'tough luck' . Governments have to ensure continuity of supply and sometimes spending money for doubtful returns is a risk they have to take.
Maybe. But maybe not if contracts have already been awarded.As I've said, if Snowy 2.0 isn't viable and or required, Labor will have no issue with stopping the project, it is still in the early stages. So lets just wait and see rather than having circular debates.
At last, can we finally move on now?Snowy 2 is only insurance against multiday-duration intermittency. The issue is pretty much isolated to Victoria which has a high winter load and presently can simultaneously experience dual wind and solar capacity shortfalls as @Smurf has separately charted.
I agree.At last, can we finally move on now?
You're tenacity, is only surpassed by your verbosity, I found a photo of you driving by.I agree.
You could not show it was necessary or viable.
Nevertheless, I am now contacting my insurer to add death from intergalactic invaders... just in case.
You have opinions, but I have answers.You're tenacity, is only surpassed by your verbosity,
Finally we agree on something.You have opinions, but I have answers.
Snowy 2 should be dead in the water:
View attachment 132194
This is literally what Australia could be shipping to the world in the 2030s.
Whilst that is factually correct, it's somewhat akin to saying that my savings account generally doesn't have a lot of money in it.the real world seldom sees Tantangara above 30% full during the year
That is IMO and only my opinion the major issue, we have moved on since the Industrial Revolution and we are much more technically advanced and indeed much more affluent.What I do have a firm view on however is that "do nothing" is not an option and that would be the case even if, hypothetically, the entire issue of climate change were removed (ignoring any argument for or against that so in a purely hypothetical sense). I say that since, even without that issue being considered at all, there's still the problem of multiple existing coal-fired plants and a few gas ones approaching the end of their technical lifespan and there's still the problem of gas production decline. The energy issue exists with or without the climate issue.
On that note, one area where I will be somewhat critical not so much of Snowy but of the entire industry is in regards to storage management.
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